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rantnrave

Nationwide Jul 2018

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OK wasn't expecting that - the cynic in me thought they'd fudge the figures to avoid a rise to avoid giving Carney another excuse for raising interest rates tomorrow.

If the BoE chickens out and doesn't raise rates tomorrow then I'll be in despair.

The only thing keeping me going at the moment I'm building up my deposit savings at a faster rate than the annual HPI figure - but man, am I sick of waiting for this insanity to end.

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Thanks for posting rantnrave.

An interest rate rise tomorrow and the nights starting to draw in. It's going to be an interesting winter; I'd put money on sustained drops in the coming months.

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I wasn't an ace student at school except for history and maths. I can sit down with a pen and paper for hours, as I have done, and with the help of some Google searches I have access to all the data I need for UK wages to debt to money supply etc etc, and no matter how many times I sit down and do this the answer is always the same, the housing market should  not be rising and should be collapsing.

What is going on?

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10 minutes ago, inbruges said:

I wasn't an ace student at school except for history and maths. I can sit down with a pen and paper for hours, as I have done, and with the help of some Google searches I have access to all the data I need for UK wages to debt to money supply etc etc, and no matter how many times I sit down and do this the answer is always the same, the housing market should  not be rising and should be collapsing.

What is going on?

Its got to be to do with data size.... i would guess that the number of transactions are at a low but the values are much higher, and this can skew the stats as they are reported as a percentage. Again its just a guess 

Its the only way it makes sence to me. 

Also its only Nationwides customers, and not the market as a whole

Edited by Monkey

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1 minute ago, Monkey said:

Its got to be to do with data size.... i would guess that the number of transactions are at a low but the values are much higher, and this can skew the stats as they are reported as a percentage. Again its just a guess 

Its the only way it makes sence to me. 

Also its only Nationwides customers, and not the market as a whole

The only thing I can imagine it is, and if I am right it has been going on a while, is that we are witnessing a Mexican stand off with one side being totally delusional.

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1 minute ago, inbruges said:

The only thing I can imagine it is, and if I am right it has been going on a while, is that we are witnessing a Mexican stand off with one side being totally delusional.

Problem though is stuff is still selling. Because the new stuff coming on is priced even higher.

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2 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Problem though is stuff is still selling. Because the new stuff coming on is priced even higher.

Was just a wild guess mate, like I said, I don't have a clue whats going on. I can go down the pub or gym tonight and meet dozens of under 35 year old lads with great careers and work ethic who carry themselves well and earn more than most, yet they have no chance of getting on the housing market unless they travel 150 miles up the A1 and commute.

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1 minute ago, inbruges said:

 I don't have a clue whats going on.

Negative interest rates means any non depreciating asset is worth an infinite amount.  Until it's market value gets so out of line that it collapses.

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https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-45021458

 

And the good old BBC just cannot wait when the news is positive, always written in that cheery happy sort of way when prices are going up and written in a negative way when prices drop with photos of black clouds and men with their head in their hands etc. The BBC is totally oblivious to the fact  that a falling housing market is music to the ears of millions of people.

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4 minutes ago, inbruges said:

https://bbc.co.uk/news/business-45021458

 

And the good old BBC just cannot wait when the news is positive, always written in that cheery happy sort of way when prices are going up and written in a negative way when prices drop with photos of black clouds and men with their head in their hands etc. The BBC is totally oblivious to the fact  that a falling housing market is music to the ears of millions of people.

And i am forced to pay a fee to subside these *****. Makes my blood boil.

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13 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

And i am forced to pay a fee to subside these *****. Makes my blood boil.

You pay for a licence ? :blink:

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49 minutes ago, inbruges said:

Was just a wild guess mate, like I said, I don't have a clue whats going on. I can go down the pub or gym tonight and meet dozens of under 35 year old lads with great careers and work ethic who carry themselves well and earn more than most, yet they have no chance of getting on the housing market unless they travel 150 miles up the A1 and commute.

sounds very contradictory to me.  

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1 hour ago, inbruges said:

I wasn't an ace student at school except for history and maths. I can sit down with a pen and paper for hours, as I have done, and with the help of some Google searches I have access to all the data I need for UK wages to debt to money supply etc etc, and no matter how many times I sit down and do this the answer is always the same, the housing market should  not be rising and should be collapsing.

What is going on?

Try this for a start https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/21/chancellor-unveils-new-powers-bank-england/

The initial £1.2bn can be increased to £5bn and the leverage is 150x for £750bn lending. "Without sign-off from the Treasury"!

If you were a banker would you sit on your hands or lend more?

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The book 'Boom and Bust' written by Fred Harrison in 2005 proposed an 18-year property cycle in which he also predicted the 2007/08 crash using this model.

 

The model proposes a four year 'recession' or downturn period followed by 7 years moderate growth and then 7 years higher growth (interspersed by a mid cycle wobble). The final two years are characterised by the 'winner's curse' with property prices rising exponentially prior to a crash.

 

Following the crash in 07/08 we had four years of stagnant prices, since around 2011/12 moderate rises of around 5%. According to Harrison a mid term wobble should be approaching (2018/9?) which should be followed by seven years of significant rises up to a spectacular crash in 2025.

 

Apparently this pattern has been playing out in cycles of 18-20 years for the last couple of hundred years! 

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10 minutes ago, longgone said:

sounds very contradictory to me.  

Is this not the mess we are in? Partner and I are north of the 120k combined income in London. Good luck to find something decent for raising a family close to work

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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