Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Hectors House

Birth rate drops due to austerity

Recommended Posts

I've been following the birth rate for years, it is one of those set of figures that is useful for what I do at work (Workforce Planning), It is amazing in a nothing but a few years how a trend has been reversed.

It was interesting to see the birthdate go from 2.4 down into a dip and in recent years it was going the other way with talk that the UK was going to reach the replacent rate of 2.0, however in the past year at least it seems that something is having a grip on the birth rate and it is going into a dive again, I say something, I'm inclined to say Austerity is to blame.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed. Not so long ago there was talk of a new baby boom, but live births and total fertility rate have fallen since 2012 - the latter to 1.76 per woman in 2017 (figure 1). Some notable age-specific trends though, such as the difference between relatively older and younger women (figure 2).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2017#the-number-of-live-births-and-the-total-fertility-rate-decreased-in-2017

I'm not sure about exactly why, as also falling elsewhere e.g. the US -  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report004.pdf

Whether the trend is a bad or good thing is debateable, particularly without knowing whether the underlying drivers are a reflection of bad or good things (eg. due to growing lack of life opportunity or affordability vs. due to growing choice from increased life opportunity). But personally sympathetic with your policy interpretation as part of the explanation here given the reversal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although the decline predates it, in July 2015 it was announced there would be a benefit cap limited to two children. Bet that put some people off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is a shame that there isn't a comparable death rate chart!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hectors House said:

It is a shame that there isn't a comparable death rate chart!

Simple - the birth rate per women was apparently 1.76 in 2017, the death rate is 100%. Don't think anyone's discovered the secret to immortality yet!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like that word Austerity, stupid word that means little......the reason why the birth rate has been declining over many years is because of various reasons.....people grow up later they are studying for longer.....women are going out to work....working women find it hard to have more than one child whilst working.....fewer people are setting up home as  couples, because homes for families have become above and beyond their means......benefits for large families have been withdrawn......gay people feel they don't have to prove a point by marrying the opposite sex and having children to prove anything.....far more single households and proud of it than before......councils no longer look at a couple with two children of the opposite sex requiring a three bed property......what a world to bring children up into anyway.........in years gone by large families were the norm, may not have had much in the way of material possessions but had plenty of love and support, parents had the time and a strong sense of community.....all in this together, could leave the door open and feel safe.....there was nothing worth stealing.;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's also worth pointing out that, barring something like the Black Death, the global population will peak in 2070 at around 11 billion. In one respect this is a good thing because the increase is driven by a reduction in the death rate, but from an environmental perspective it's a huge challenge. Reducing the birth rate will have a positive impact and should be welcomed. If we can keep the damage within some kind of limits for the next 50 years, we'll be swimming with the current after that.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Orsino said:

It's also worth pointing out that, barring something like the Black Death, the global population will peak in 2070 at around 11 billion. In one respect this is a good thing because the increase is driven by a reduction in the death rate, but from an environmental perspective it's a huge challenge. Reducing the birth rate will have a positive impact and should be welcomed. If we can keep the damage within some kind of limits for the next 50 years, we'll be swimming with the current after that.

It gets screwed over by the short-term economic greed, and that society hasn't a clue how to adjust to a world where people live longer. By any rational view a declining population should be welcomed as the best news possible, as long as it's not too rapid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a young guy and about half of the lasses my age say they don't want kids. I've really noticed this since I started getting serious about finding a bird for a serious relationship. I am very upfront about the fact that I want kids in the future and about half the girls I meet are repulsed at the idea of having them. A lot of young women want to live the weekend party lifestyle with 3 or 4 holidays a year and no responsibilities tying them down. A fair number don't want kids for the fear that it will ruin their figure (as if age and time won't do that anyway). Overall I think my generation are basically only here to serve as an example to future generations as to what not to do with their lives. There is just far too much narcissism, nihilism and living for the moment at the expense of the future in my generation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Renewed Investor said:

I'm a young guy and about half of the lasses my age say they don't want kids. I've really noticed this since I started getting serious about finding a bird for a serious relationship. I am very upfront about the fact that I want kids in the future and about half the girls I meet are repulsed at the idea of having them. A lot of young women want to live the weekend party lifestyle with 3 or 4 holidays a year and no responsibilities tying them down. A fair number don't want kids for the fear that it will ruin their figure (as if age and time won't do that anyway). Overall I think my generation are basically only here to serve as an example to future generations as to what not to do with their lives. There is just far too much narcissism, nihilism and living for the moment at the expense of the future in my generation.

Until they reach 35 and they see friends and family with babies. Then it's the complete opposite for most. Utter desperation for a child. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ccc said:

Until they reach 35 and they see friends and family with babies. Then it's the complete opposite for most. Utter desperation for a child. 

And by that point...us 35 year old tidy, intelligent, financially-comfortable men, don't want you anymore

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Odd as it may seem I think the expansion of higher education has something to do with it. Many women are now at University during their peak fertility years of the early 20s. They have not even started work let alone thought about having a family. By the time they are in their 30s their chances of conceiving are already in decline. It starts to plummet from 35. It is a lagging trend whose impact is only starting to be felt now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, chronyx said:

And by that point...us 35 year old tidy, intelligent, financially-comfortable men, don't want you anymore

what do they want ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Renewed Investor said:

I'm a young guy and about half of the lasses my age say they don't want kids. I've really noticed this since I started getting serious about finding a bird for a serious relationship. I am very upfront about the fact that I want kids in the future and about half the girls I meet are repulsed at the idea of having them. A lot of young women want to live the weekend party lifestyle with 3 or 4 holidays a year and no responsibilities tying them down. A fair number don't want kids for the fear that it will ruin their figure (as if age and time won't do that anyway). Overall I think my generation are basically only here to serve as an example to future generations as to what not to do with their lives. There is just far too much narcissism, nihilism and living for the moment at the expense of the future in my generation.

 

8 hours ago, ccc said:

Until they reach 35 and they see friends and family with babies. Then it's the complete opposite for most. Utter desperation for a child. 

Then they have one and it is utter desperation to get back on the drinking/party scene, the amount of birds in their early to mid 30`s you see walking about with kids or babies in tow who look like their face has just been slapped with a wet kipper dipped in piss is pretty high IMO, higher than the birth rate anyway  :lol: I don`t think mentioning that you are desperate to have kids is a good angle to take with women you want relationships with though, that is going to have them running for the hills IMO, too much too soon, far too smothering for them, but most of them will want kids at a genetic level, but many won`t enjoy the experience, not in the way it is sold by media and advertisers anyway. IMO of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, longgone said:

what do they want ?

The 20 - 25 year olds that are doing the same things she was at 25. ;)

Maybe one of them will decide to 'settle down' before she's used up her fertility and youth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, chronyx said:

The 20 - 25 year olds that are doing the same things she was at 25. ;)

Maybe one of them will decide to 'settle down' before she's used up her fertility and youth.

i don`t think that changes when men hit 55 let alone 35. 

40 here and the only ones that show interest are in their 20s. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Renewed Investor said:

Overall I think my generation are basically only here to serve as an example to future generations as to what not to do with their lives. 

 

I see all this potential, and I see it squandered. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables - slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our great war is a spiritual war... Our great depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars, but we won't. We're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off.

Tyler Durden, Fight Club.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, chronyx said:

And by that point...us 35 year old tidy, intelligent, financially-comfortable men, don't want you anymore

Yep. Men that age are looking 10 years younger. So a 35yr old woman would be better looking for 45yr+ men.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think it's austerity. Globally it's a trend, especially in developed nations,  for women to work more, and do less childcare themselves. 

How can blame them, it's a crappy and thankless job. 

So if the women won't do the bulk of childcare, who will? If you can afford it, daycare. If you can't, then less popel are signing up for the job. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a big part of HPI too. I think birth rates and houseprices are probably correlated in most western nations. More women working, equals more money, equals larger mortgages, equals higher house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mynamehere said:

How can blame them, it's a crappy and thankless job. 

It really isn't. It is the most important job that 99% of all women will ever do. It's virtually the most important job on the planet. 

What is more important on a basic level than caring for and bringing up the next generation of your species?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It may be the most important job. It's also one of the hardest and lowest paid jobs. A job that fewer and fewer people are volunteering to do. Unless they can afford to employ people to do the bulk of the work, day in day out. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Errol said:

What is more important on a basic level than caring for and bringing up the next generation of your species?

Not adding to all our problems by churning out more and more people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 143 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.