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Northen Ireland - Brexit impact and House Prices


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7 hours ago, Accountant Belfast said:

I would normally have agreed but would that involve the backstop arrangement  with an Irish sea boarder? the fudge zone would have to end somewhere which I believe has been ruled out in law by Thesesa May with the DUP at the puppet strings..

I have read some of the technical notices ( talk about fudges, you could drive a bus through the gaps in the plans).

if brexit goes wrong, ( no deal etc) with NI's current status as a UK ignored afterthought with no active Gov - I think the whole NI economy is rubber ducked, we may struggle to feed the population here or  let alone think of the price of housing stock.

If this plays out the way its going, I think this time 2 years there is a fair chance our brightest and best next generation will be clearing off to Australia- a loss to the economy and there's the next generation of FTB's

i think i will hold off until April before making any offers

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On 30/08/2018 at 15:28, Accountant Belfast said:

I would normally have agreed but would that involve the backstop arrangement  with an Irish sea boarder? the fudge zone would have to end somewhere which I believe has been ruled out in law by Thesesa May with the DUP at the puppet strings..

I have read some of the technical notices ( talk about fudges, you could drive a bus through the gaps in the plans).

if brexit goes wrong, ( no deal etc) with NI's current status as a UK ignored afterthought with no active Gov - I think the whole NI economy is rubber ducked, we may struggle to feed the population here or  let alone think of the price of housing stock.

If this plays out the way its going, I think this time 2 years there is a fair chance our brightest and best next generation will be clearing off to Australia- a loss to the economy and there's the next generation of FTB's

The logical thing to do would have been for the whole of NI to stay harmonised with EU rules and in return have free trade/movement  between it and the RoI,  with some kind of extra checks on travellers and goods going to/from GB at the ports and airports.  Since NI would still be in the UK and under the ultimate control of Westminster, these checks could have been done pretty effectively and unobtrusively, not like a border with a different country where you only control your side.

NI already has quite a different set of laws and rules to England/Wales and Scotland anyway so it's not it's unprecedented for regulations not to be exactly the same in Belfast as in London.   Also, there are already all sorts of security checks (visible and in the background also) when flying or sailing from NI to GB.

However, this is anathema to the DUP who thanks to Theresa May's unbelievable  incompetence in calling an election to get a bigger majority and managing to lose seats instead,   are now keeping the Tories in power, so no deal. 

I would see all this stupidity as ultimately hastening a United Ireland as it will heavily damage NIs prospects and show the DUP up to be ideological idiots who would cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

To be clear, I support Brexit and think it's undoubtedly the right thing for the UK as whole, over the long term - but if NI gets isolated as the DUP are foolishly trying to do, it will wreck the place.  A sort of 'dual nationality' deal for the entire area would have massively boosted its prospects as it would be the best of both worlds and a bridge between the UK and EU for inward investment.

 

 

Edited by Sour Mash
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5 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

The logical thing to do would have been for the whole of NI to stay harmonised with EU rules and in return have free trade/movement  between it and the RoI,  with some kind of extra checks on travellers and goods going to/from GB at the ports and airports.  Since NI would still be in the UK and under the ultimate control of Westminster, these checks could have been done pretty effectively and unobtrusively, not like a border with a different country where you only control your side.

NI already has quite a different set of laws and rules to England/Wales and Scotland anyway so it's not it's unprecedented for regulations not to be exactly the same in Belfast as in London.   Also, there are already all sorts of security checks (visible and in the background also) when flying or sailing from NI to GB.

However, this is anathema to the DUP who thanks to Theresa May's unbelievable  incompetence in calling an election to get a bigger majority and managing to lose seats instead,   are now keeping the Tories in power, so no deal. 

I would see all this stupidity as ultimately hastening a United Ireland as it will heavily damage NIs prospects and show the DUP up to be ideological idiots who would cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

To be clear, I support Brexit and think it's undoubtedly the right thing for the UK as whole, over the long term - but if NI gets isolated as the DUP are foolishly trying to do, it will wreck the place.  A sort of 'dual nationality' deal for the entire area would have massively boosted its prospects as it would be the best of both worlds and a bridge between the UK and EU for inward investment.

You seem to be a having cake and eating it kind of person. How can you support Brexit but yet also support NI remaining tied to EU rules? I'm firmly a remainer and like you I also believe it is in our best interests to remain as close as possible to the EU rules with common trade and travel area but unlike you I voted for it.

 

5 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

 

 

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17 hours ago, nornironsi said:

You seem to be a having cake and eating it kind of person. How can you support Brexit but yet also support NI remaining tied to EU rules? I'm firmly a remainer and like you I also believe it is in our best interests to remain as close as possible to the EU rules with common trade and travel area but unlike you I voted for it.

 

What's the point of having your cake if you can't eat it?

It does appear that a potential deal was up for discussion for NI to be jointly in the EU and UK which is an absolutely fantastic position to be in if there was a hard Brexit (or even with a softer one, depending on the exact deal).

Saying "No" to that sort of once-in-a-lifetime deal for idealogical reasons is unbelievably stupid.

Brexit is a better option for the UK as a whole, longer term, but of course NI is the black sheep that's always borrowing money from the rest of the family.  NI also has a hell of a lot of shared economic interest with the RoI thanks to the land border and the little fact that about half the population vote for parties that want reunification.

IMO,  EU exit would also be a good idea for the RoI longer term,  but that's not going to happen any time soon which means that NI stands to get screwed in the event of a hard Brexit.  That will also hurt the RoI quite severely too - if at all possible the government there should have sought some sort of bilateral deal with the UK but they have indicated that the EU speaks for them - stupidly, if the EU bureaucrats block a good deal.

Of course, with a completely soft Brexit for the whole of the UK it's more or less a moot point.   But that defeats most of the purpose of Brexit.

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  • 1 month later...

It's interesting to see a number of houses / apts that are for sale now are also proposed for rent ( or switching altogether to let only):

It seems that the market is hitting the pause button hard because of the Brexit uncertainty... 

Sadly, it seems that the owners keep repeating the same error. They are switching from an overpriced sale price to overpriced rent ... 

 

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1 hour ago, blopeur said:

It's interesting to see a number of houses / apts that are for sale now are also proposed for rent ( or switching altogether to let only):

It seems that the market is hitting the pause button hard because of the Brexit uncertainty... 

Sadly, it seems that the owners keep repeating the same error. They are switching from an overpriced sale price to overpriced rent ... 

 

I don't think it's brexit relate. I think it's surveyors holding the prices back. Lots of expensive house going sale agreed and coming back on or not selling at all. 

 

Worth pointing out the deramore one was up for 2.1 million not so long ago. 

Now it's an air bnb

 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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Eden wood on malone road was up for sale circa 550k-595k, now for sale 499k. The other 3 buyers must be fuming if they paid full price.

https://www.irishnews.com/lifestyle/property/2018/04/19/news/property-eden-wood-is-a-paradise-of-luxury-and-convenience-1307837/

https://www.simonbrien.com/property/site-2-eden-wood-belfast-owwfo

NOW - https://www.propertypal.com/semi-detached-eden-wood-belfast/541861 

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11 hours ago, zamo said:

I noticed this yesterday too. I'm not sure if the others have sold yet. I think they might be releasingone at a time. 

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On 11/10/2018 at 18:02, 2buyornot2buy said:

I don't think it's brexit relate. I think it's surveyors holding the prices back. Lots of expensive house going sale agreed and coming back on or not selling at all. 

 

Worth pointing out the deramore one was up for 2.1 million not so long ago. 

Now it's an air bnb

 

See the deramore one has been removed and listed again. 

Now at 950k. 

https://www.propertypal.com/27b-deramore-park-malone-belfast/542607

Dropped 1.15million.

 

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2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

See the deramore one has been removed and listed again. 

Now at 950k. 

https://www.propertypal.com/27b-deramore-park-malone-belfast/542607

Dropped 1.15million.

 

Yea it was 2.1 mill in 2007.

50% off that price would be about right.

It has rateable value of 900k in 2005.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/life/house-home/a-des-res-with-all-mod-cons-28067583.html

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25 minutes ago, zamo said:

Yea it was 2.1 mill in 2007.

50% off that price would be about right.

It has rateable value of 900k in 2005.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/life/house-home/a-des-res-with-all-mod-cons-28067583.html

55% but I wonder if it's been for sale the whole time. It's dropped this week from 1.2 mill I think. 

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The bottom end of the market is extremely fast at the moment, my niece bought an ex council house less than two years ago for £65k a developer had bought it and out in new windows and a nice enough kitchen and bathroom , inside was fairly decent and she spent a bit of money on it and totally redone the outside , it went on the market in July at £99;950 and was sold for £108k at the time the estate agent told her that any ex council house in good enough condition was making over the £100k , she agreed a new build semi in green island in June for £197;950 and in the latest release the same house in £223;950 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 05/09/2018 at 12:53, Sour Mash said:

The logical thing to do would have been for the whole of NI to stay harmonised with EU rules and in return have free trade/movement  between it and the RoI,  with some kind of extra checks on travellers and goods going to/from GB at the ports and airports.  Since NI would still be in the UK and under the ultimate control of Westminster, these checks could have been done pretty effectively and unobtrusively, not like a border with a different country where you only control your side.

NI already has quite a different set of laws and rules to England/Wales and Scotland anyway so it's not it's unprecedented for regulations not to be exactly the same in Belfast as in London.   Also, there are already all sorts of security checks (visible and in the background also) when flying or sailing from NI to GB.

However, this is anathema to the DUP who thanks to Theresa May's unbelievable  incompetence in calling an election to get a bigger majority and managing to lose seats instead,   are now keeping the Tories in power, so no deal. 

I would see all this stupidity as ultimately hastening a United Ireland as it will heavily damage NIs prospects and show the DUP up to be ideological idiots who would cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

To be clear, I support Brexit and think it's undoubtedly the right thing for the UK as whole, over the long term - but if NI gets isolated as the DUP are foolishly trying to do, it will wreck the place.  A sort of 'dual nationality' deal for the entire area would have massively boosted its prospects as it would be the best of both worlds and a bridge between the UK and EU for inward investment.

 

 

I don't think its possible for NI to remain in the customs union when the rest of the UK is leaving it. The DUP are quite right to put their foot down on this. The way I see it is that Remainer May is trying to scupper brexit/fudge the people with a stupid 'deal'where we leave only in name and the DUP are being very useful in keeping her in check - as if they don't agree with her policy they pull her support. Quite rightly too. It could be the DUP who we have to thank for ensuring a proper real brexit from the EU

Edited by bear.getting.old
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14 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

I don't think its possible for NI to remain in the customs union when the rest of the UK is leaving it. The DUP are quite right to put their foot down on this. The way I see it is that Remainer May is trying to scupper brexit/fudge the people with a stupid 'deal'where we leave only in name and the DUP are being very useful in keeping her in check - as if they don't agree with her policy they pull her support. Quite rightly too. It could be the DUP who we have to thank for ensuring a proper real brexit from the EU

Tricky situation for the DUP. Push for a harder brexit and IMO a boarder poll looks likely. 

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16 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

I don't think its possible for NI to remain in the customs union when the rest of the UK is leaving it. The DUP are quite right to put their foot down on this. The way I see it is that Remainer May is trying to scupper brexit/fudge the people with a stupid 'deal'where we leave only in name and the DUP are being very useful in keeping her in check - as if they don't agree with her policy they pull her support. Quite rightly too. It could be the DUP who we have to thank for ensuring a proper real brexit from the EU

 

Of course it's possible - the EU agrees to allow free passage of NI goods into the RoI and the UK allows free passage of NI goods into the rest of the UK - with customs checks taking place behind the scenes at air/sea ports for traffic between NI and the rest of UK.

It would mean that the EU would have to have some sort of involvement with the customs checks as the aim would be to prevent NI being a backdoor for EU goods into GB and also a backdoor for GB made goods into the EU.  However, as they'd largely be taking place on sea freight the amount of disruption would be minimal.  Certainly way less than a hard border between NI and the RoI.

Even better would be a deal on services allowing people to set up shop in NI and offer services to the UK and EU.   This would be massively beneficial for NI.

Of course, the DUP insist on NI and GB being 'the same' when clearly they are ALREADY not - I don't see the DUP clamouring for NI laws on abortion and gay marriage to be harmonised with those in GB.   They really would cut off their nose (much increased propsperity for 'their wee country' vs holding out the begging bowl to Westminster) to spite their face.

(This is all in the event of a 'no-deal' on UK/EU free trade of course, with a deal on free trade it becomes largely irrelevant.)

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The DUP seem to be traditionalists, old school and non PC. I like that personally. They don't like the EU. Also in line with my views. The south are largely aligned with the EU and there are not many politicians questioning this policy and suggesting Ireland would gain from concentrating on trade to the UK and to the rest of the world away from the EU. The EU market is quite small and shrinking. Yes I see that many things are different in NI to the UK, for example N. Irish law on conveyancing. I suppose you would expect that, its a different country after all BUT part of the UK. Same as Scotland has its own laws for house transactions.

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42 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

The DUP seem to be traditionalists, old school and non PC. I like that personally. They don't like the EU. Also in line with my views. The south are largely aligned with the EU and there are not many politicians questioning this policy and suggesting Ireland would gain from concentrating on trade to the UK and to the rest of the world away from the EU. The EU market is quite small and shrinking. Yes I see that many things are different in NI to the UK, for example N. Irish law on conveyancing. I suppose you would expect that, its a different country after all BUT part of the UK. Same as Scotland has its own laws for house transactions.

NI isn't a country BTW

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With BREXIT expect everyone to feel poorer - and that means little chance of higher house prices  - you may find that a good thing or a bad thing depending on your situation. 

Unless they are going to build a Spitfire factory in Ballymena it really will be very bad all round. Weaker economy in NI and less money to go into the begging bowl. All those nice Civil Servant jobs might just get relocated back to Blighty much like the 300 DVLA jobs in Coleraine. NI costs UK PLC £10bn a year which is almost the same amount of money that was written on the side of the Boris Bus - £192m a week.

Soft BREXIT will be bad, Hard Brexit will be much worse and a NO DEAL will be very painful. This could lead to more calls for a border poll as mentioned above in this thread. Whether that happens remains to be seen but the calls for the poll will grow louder. Mr and Mrs Dodds along with Mrs Foster will have their seats in the House of Lords and a nice pension. 

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2 hours ago, mmca22gr said:

With BREXIT expect everyone to feel poorer - and that means little chance of higher house prices  - you may find that a good thing or a bad thing depending on your situation. 

Unless they are going to build a Spitfire factory in Ballymena it really will be very bad all round. Weaker economy in NI and less money to go into the begging bowl. All those nice Civil Servant jobs might just get relocated back to Blighty much like the 300 DVLA jobs in Coleraine. NI costs UK PLC £10bn a year which is almost the same amount of money that was written on the side of the Boris Bus - £192m a week.

Soft BREXIT will be bad, Hard Brexit will be much worse and a NO DEAL will be very painful. This could lead to more calls for a border poll as mentioned above in this thread. Whether that happens remains to be seen but the calls for the poll will grow louder. Mr and Mrs Dodds along with Mrs Foster will have their seats in the House of Lords and a nice pension. 

That’s exactly what I’d expect, although, let’s face it, all anyone can do is guess.

Since the main stumbling block to the hard brexit these zealots demand is our own dear island home, I wonder how many of them would be happy to have a “no deal” abandonment of Northern Ireland as well, just to get what they want? A bit like the spice girls without Victoria, they probably don’t care about losing 1.6 million and a lot of hassle.

Most southerners with any sense are well aware that the only reason their state has been any kind of a success is partition. Wouldn’t it be an upset if a referendum down south were to show  even a significant minority doesn’t want us either?

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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