Northen Ireland - Brexit impact and House Prices

[Accountant Belfast]

Hi

I noticed that there seems to be a mini surge in asking prices in the last few months, despite the uncertainty of Brexit having he potential of sending Northern Ireland back to the stone ages in terms of economic prosperity. we also have reports from PWC saying 4% growth per year in house prices https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/ireland/northern-irish-house-prices-to-enjoy-strongest-growth-pwc with one breath, and with the other releasing news reports that lead the sane of us to question how there can be any reason why the housing market cannot be falling apart https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html

I constantly hear references to 2007 prices and that we are approaching the pre bust level as if its a good thing, are people insane??? this has lead to almost a lost decade of people in their 30's renting or given up on family life and indeed northern Ireland and moved off to pastures new to fart about Australia etc .

I have a feeling that we have been here before, estate agents filled with self importance despite not being able to tie their own shoe laces but feel they are fully qualified to hand out illegal advice such as 'prices can only go up' and 'you cannot loose money ' which I have been told several times yet this breaks about every FCA rule there is.

Have we forgotten that  ultimately the economy is still on life support with artificially low interest rates, there are no further tools the government can use to regulate inflation and the knock on effects from various sources may cause interest rates to rise and hard, its difficult to see where brexit can come back to bite but its guaranteed not to be as smooth sailing as we have had the last 11years?????

anyways rant over, lol

does anyone have an opinion on brexit and house prices??????????????????

 I am old enough to have lived through the reality of 2007 economic disasters and feel the same thunder in the air around the economy as I did then, the fundamentals of NI wages vs mortgages do not stack up... be afraid ... what goes up must come down

[2buyornot2buy]

29 minutes ago, Accountant Belfast said:

Hi

I noticed that there seems to be a mini surge in asking prices in the last few months, despite the uncertainty of Brexit having he potential of sending Northern Ireland back to the stone ages in terms of economic prosperity. we also have reports from PWC saying 4% growth per year in house prices https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/ireland/northern-irish-house-prices-to-enjoy-strongest-growth-pwc with one breath, and with the other releasing news reports that lead the sane of us to question how there can be any reason why the housing market cannot be falling apart https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html

I constantly hear references to 2007 prices and that we are approaching the pre bust level as if its a good thing, are people insane??? this has lead to almost a lost decade of people in their 30's renting or given up on family life and indeed northern Ireland and moved off to pastures new to fart about Australia etc .

I have a feeling that we have been here before, estate agents filled with self importance despite not being able to tie their own shoe laces but feel they are fully qualified to hand out illegal advice such as 'prices can only go up' and 'you cannot loose money ' which I have been told several times yet this breaks about every FCA rule there is.

Have we forgotten that  ultimately the economy is still on life support with artificially low interest rates, there are no further tools the government can use to regulate inflation and the knock on effects from various sources may cause interest rates to rise and hard, its difficult to see where brexit can come back to bite but its guaranteed not to be as smooth sailing as we have had the last 11years?????

anyways rant over, lol

does anyone have an opinion on brexit and house prices??????????????????

 I am old enough to have lived through the reality of 2007 economic disasters and feel the same thunder in the air around the economy as I did then, the fundamentals of NI wages vs mortgages do not stack up... be afraid ... what goes up must come down

Welcome. Good post. You've put into word what anyone with a few brain cells should be able too see. Continued unrelenting debt creation is responsible for this mini boom. Near zero interest rates, near 2 TRILLION in public debt and consumer debt off the charts. It won't and well. We've borrowed as much as we can from tomorrow. Brexit could be the event that causes another reset. 

[zamo]

6 hours ago, Accountant Belfast said:

Hi

I noticed that there seems to be a mini surge in asking prices in the last few months, despite the uncertainty of Brexit having he potential of sending Northern Ireland back to the stone ages in terms of economic prosperity. we also have reports from PWC saying 4% growth per year in house prices https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/ireland/northern-irish-house-prices-to-enjoy-strongest-growth-pwc with one breath, and with the other releasing news reports that lead the sane of us to question how there can be any reason why the housing market cannot be falling apart https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html

I constantly hear references to 2007 prices and that we are approaching the pre bust level as if its a good thing, are people insane??? this has lead to almost a lost decade of people in their 30's renting or given up on family life and indeed northern Ireland and moved off to pastures new to fart about Australia etc .

I have a feeling that we have been here before, estate agents filled with self importance despite not being able to tie their own shoe laces but feel they are fully qualified to hand out illegal advice such as 'prices can only go up' and 'you cannot loose money ' which I have been told several times yet this breaks about every FCA rule there is.

Have we forgotten that  ultimately the economy is still on life support with artificially low interest rates, there are no further tools the government can use to regulate inflation and the knock on effects from various sources may cause interest rates to rise and hard, its difficult to see where brexit can come back to bite but its guaranteed not to be as smooth sailing as we have had the last 11years?????

anyways rant over, lol

does anyone have an opinion on brexit and house prices??????????????????

 I am old enough to have lived through the reality of 2007 economic disasters and feel the same thunder in the air around the economy as I did then, the fundamentals of NI wages vs mortgages do not stack up... be afraid ... what goes up must come down

Wasn't it 4% in total over the next 4 years that PWC predicted?

[zamo]

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/Northern-Ireland-set-to-enjoy-strongest-UK-house-prices-growth.html

Still a bit confused by their maths.....

[whome_yesyou]

It's all madness to me, and almost feels like I'm being kept out of the loop on some crazy upbeat information which would help explain what's happening. The last bit of news I read relating to the local economy was a warning that NI was edging closer to recession, so I'm not sure where the positive vibe is coming from...

What happened to promote such wild HPI rises for the last 5 years? Tourism? After the EU referendum in 2016, I also thought things will go south, or at least stagnate, just so we use money more wisely for tougher times ahead. Instead, the banks and government go into full debt ramping mode, providing even cheaper money to the masses. It is backwards logic to me. 

It does make me feel annoyed, as I thought times have changed after the country suffered badly through the last crash, which was caused by high levels of debt. Now everywhere you look again it's debt ridden. 

 

 

[BelfastVI]

20 hours ago, Accountant Belfast said:

Hi

I noticed that there seems to be a mini surge in asking prices in the last few months, despite the uncertainty of Brexit having he potential of sending Northern Ireland back to the stone ages in terms of economic prosperity. we also have reports from PWC saying 4% growth per year in house prices https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/ireland/northern-irish-house-prices-to-enjoy-strongest-growth-pwc with one breath, and with the other releasing news reports that lead the sane of us to question how there can be any reason why the housing market cannot be falling apart https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html

I constantly hear references to 2007 prices and that we are approaching the pre bust level as if its a good thing, are people insane??? this has lead to almost a lost decade of people in their 30's renting or given up on family life and indeed northern Ireland and moved off to pastures new to fart about Australia etc .

I have a feeling that we have been here before, estate agents filled with self importance despite not being able to tie their own shoe laces but feel they are fully qualified to hand out illegal advice such as 'prices can only go up' and 'you cannot loose money ' which I have been told several times yet this breaks about every FCA rule there is.

Have we forgotten that  ultimately the economy is still on life support with artificially low interest rates, there are no further tools the government can use to regulate inflation and the knock on effects from various sources may cause interest rates to rise and hard, its difficult to see where brexit can come back to bite but its guaranteed not to be as smooth sailing as we have had the last 11years?????

anyways rant over, lol

does anyone have an opinion on brexit and house prices??????????????????

 I am old enough to have lived through the reality of 2007 economic disasters and feel the same thunder in the air around the economy as I did then, the fundamentals of NI wages vs mortgages do not stack up... be afraid ... what goes up must come down

I also believe PWC's 4% increase was over a number of years rather than pa which gives it a barely positive reading.

I can't see any any aspect of Brexit that will put positive pressure on house prices.

Whilst the 2007 prices were mad I believe they somewhat over corrected and a good part of the recovery we have seen in the last 5 years was coming back from that. I don't see must in the way of price increases in the new build sector and we are barely changing prices between phases. I would only forecast muted increases going forward.

My view is we have too few houses in all sectors. There is now a scarcity of rental stock, despite the BTL boom 12 years ago and rents have been rising. This is the only upward pressure out there and totally self inflicted.

We will in no way follow what is happening to prices in Dublin. it may have some impact close to the border as people decide to stay and commute but that might be offset with possible new difficulties in working in the EU and living outside it.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

On 24/07/2018 at 01:02, whome_yesyou said:

It's all madness to me, and almost feels like I'm being kept out of the loop on some crazy upbeat information which would help explain what's happening. The last bit of news I read relating to the local economy was a warning that NI was edging closer to recession, so I'm not sure where the positive vibe is coming from...

What happened to promote such wild HPI rises for the last 5 years? Tourism?

I was told the other day that loads of people are buying places to run as airbnb's, because it's near impossible to get a hotel room in Belfast these days because it's so popular.

As to why it's so popular with tourists now, the answer given was 'Game of Thrones' and to a lesser extent 'Titanic'. Whether this is enough to support an economy I don't know, but everyone seems to think that Belfast is a much much richer city than it was 5 years ago (everyone raving about the 'transformation' of the Ormeau road and Ballyhackamore), without being able to explain how or why we should feel so much wealthier than we did in say 2012.

[The_Equalizer]

On 25/07/2018 at 17:41, JoeDavola said:

I was told the other day that loads of people are buying places to run as airbnb's, because it's near impossible to get a hotel room in Belfast these days because it's so popular.

As to why it's so popular with tourists now, the answer given was 'Game of Thrones' and to a lesser extent 'Titanic'. Whether this is enough to support an economy I don't know, but everyone seems to think that Belfast is a much much richer city than it was 5 years ago (everyone raving about the 'transformation' of the Ormeau road and Ballyhackamore), without being able to explain how or why we should feel so much wealthier than we did in say 2012.

There is more work about than 2012. If ever there ever were an example then the trades would be a good one. I'm not necessarily suggesting that this justifies the current boom, but certainly would help to explain it.

Oh and I still think you should look further afield. ;- )

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

There is more work about than 2012. If ever there ever were an example then the trades would be a good one. I'm not necessarily suggesting that this justifies the current boom, but certainly would help to explain it.

Oh and I still think you should look further afield. ;- )

I do now keep my eye on Whiteabbey after our previous conversation! Anywhere that's an easy train ride to Botanic is do-able.

[Sour Mash]

On 25/07/2018 at 17:41, JoeDavola said:

I was told the other day that loads of people are buying places to run as airbnb's, because it's near impossible to get a hotel room in Belfast these days because it's so popular.

As to why it's so popular with tourists now, the answer given was 'Game of Thrones' and to a lesser extent 'Titanic'. Whether this is enough to support an economy I don't know, but everyone seems to think that Belfast is a much much richer city than it was 5 years ago (everyone raving about the 'transformation' of the Ormeau road and Ballyhackamore), without being able to explain how or why we should feel so much wealthier than we did in say 2012.

There's plenty of jobs at the moment, credit is easily available and cheap and the British taxpayer is probably chucking more money than ever at the place thanks to May's  dodgy deal with the DUP.  Not surprising that people feel relatively well off - or more importantly, secure.

Not too sure the 'tourism boom' is sustainable - Game of Thrones finishes on TV next year and TBH there weren't that many recognisable local locations used for the outdoor stuff to build an industry on.  I doubt there will be many who want to pay to go and look at the outside of the studios where the sets were.  But Belfast does seem to be flavour of the moment, until the 'next' place gets popular.   If people are sinking money into Belfast property to be used for Airbnb then they are likely to get badly burned.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Not too sure the 'tourism boom' is sustainable - Game of Thrones finishes on TV next year and TBH there weren't that many recognisable local locations used for the outdoor stuff to build an industry on.  I doubt there will be many who want to pay to go and look at the outside of the studios where the sets were.  But Belfast does seem to be flavour of the moment, until the 'next' place gets popular.   If people are sinking money into Belfast property to be used for Airbnb then they are likely to get badly burned.

I think what's telling is that there's still plenty of empty commercial space in the city centre, though not as bad as it was a few years ago.

I hope for the sake of the city the tourists do keep coming, but it does 'feel' like borderline mania in terms of how wealthy everyone feels - I think apartments are being priced now as 'airbnb businesses' and not apartments. Of course this emergence of airbnb could now mean that a city centre apartment is now worth far more than it used to be pre-airbnb.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

19 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

There's plenty of jobs at the moment, credit is easily available and cheap and the British taxpayer is probably chucking more money than ever at the place thanks to May's  dodgy deal with the DUP.  Not surprising that people feel relatively well off - or more importantly, secure.

Not too sure the 'tourism boom' is sustainable - Game of Thrones finishes on TV next year and TBH there weren't that many recognisable local locations used for the outdoor stuff to build an industry on.  I doubt there will be many who want to pay to go and look at the outside of the studios where the sets were.  But Belfast does seem to be flavour of the moment, until the 'next' place gets popular.   If people are sinking money into Belfast property to be used for Airbnb then they are likely to get badly burned.

 

 

Plenty of low paid jobs!

And the economy is shrinking. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44883612

CBI warning after NI economy shrinks in first quarter of 2018

Edited July 28, 2018 by gruffydd

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

And even if it doesn't fall into recession: 
Northern Ireland economy to have worst economic growth across UK in 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland-economy-to-have-worst-economic-growth-across-uk-in-2019-36721730.html

[2buyornot2buy]

On 25/07/2018 at 17:41, JoeDavola said:

I was told the other day that loads of people are buying places to run as airbnb's, because it's near impossible to get a hotel room in Belfast these days because it's so popular.

As to why it's so popular with tourists now, the answer given was 'Game of Thrones' and to a lesser extent 'Titanic'. Whether this is enough to support an economy I don't know, but everyone seems to think that Belfast is a much much richer city than it was 5 years ago (everyone raving about the 'transformation' of the Ormeau road and Ballyhackamore), without being able to explain how or why we should feel so much wealthier than we did in say 2012.

I have to say. When I read this I though the air bnb numbers would be small. I decide to join and have a look. There a dozens of air bnbs around me. I didn't k ow they even existed. 

[JoeDavola]

15 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I have to say. When I read this I though the air bnb numbers would be small. I decide to join and have a look. There a dozens of air bnbs around me. I didn't k ow they even existed. 

Yeah there's a ton of them in and around city centre.

Titanic arc apartments was so full of them there was problems with the apartment waste disposal not being able to cope with the increased waste generation of a mixture of airbnb's and over-populated apartments (my friend used to live there and saw two indian families sharing a single apartment - multiple people sleeping on a living room floor).

[Accountant Belfast]

Brexit looming, interest rates on the turn and Halifax and others trying to put a positive spin on things as if it’s a good thing for people to have less money in their pockets and pay more for a basic necessity of a roof over there head. I think there is a bit of an elephant in the room scenario here, we have not fixed the underlying problems of the economy from 10 years ago, people are still in negative equity from the last boom in NI and wages or opportunities have not increased enough to support any no growth. I think the only thing that has changed is a new wave of millennials to the market who were too young to remember the last rollercoaster and like lambs to the slaughter will get their fingers burnt soon. I think a Brexit nodeal will be the pulling string which unravels the whole ni web of lies pushed by estate agents and backed by cheap credit which will dry up. 

[Accountant Belfast]

On 28/07/2018 at 10:12, gruffydd said:

Plenty of low paid jobs!

And the economy is shrinking. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44883612

CBI warning after NI economy shrinks in first quarter of 2018

A 0.3% decline in growth since the last quarter, but a 1% decline on this time last year is reported?. With my accountants hat on these figures don’t really add up without NI already being in recession ( all be it some smart manipulation of the figures to mask the truth of an overall downward trend). Anyone have thoughts on this or am the only one questioning this? 

[whome_yesyou]

9 hours ago, Accountant Belfast said:

A 0.3% decline in growth since the last quarter, but a 1% decline on this time last year is reported?. With my accountants hat on these figures don’t really add up without NI already being in recession ( all be it some smart manipulation of the figures to mask the truth of an overall downward trend). Anyone have thoughts on this or am the only one questioning this? 

I have been questioning everything of this fake uplift which started 5 years ago. What exactly was the catalyst of this continuing HPI growth? Not productivity that’s for sure, just simply cheap credit to those that want it. Can now get mortgages high multiples to your income, with 5% deposit, and a 35 year term... does that sound smart?

When this next crash hits, those orchestrating things better be serving time, as there is no excuse whatsoever for artificially creating another boom soon after the last GFC. Well, apart from greed and saving some of the elites which were burnt from before.

I see debt all places. Highest household debt since records began. And yet, things just keep motoring on. I’m no finance or economy expert, but it all doesn’t smell right, and I avoided the last crash because of big stink in the air.

[yadayada]

On 04/08/2018 at 14:22, Accountant Belfast said:

Brexit looming, interest rates on the turn and Halifax and others trying to put a positive spin on things as if it’s a good thing for people to have less money in their pockets and pay more for a basic necessity of a roof over there head. I think there is a bit of an elephant in the room scenario here, we have not fixed the underlying problems of the economy from 10 years ago, people are still in negative equity from the last boom in NI and wages or opportunities have not increased enough to support any no growth. I think the only thing that has changed is a new wave of millennials to the market who were too young to remember the last rollercoaster and like lambs to the slaughter will get their fingers burnt soon. I think a Brexit nodeal will be the pulling string which unravels the whole ni web of lies pushed by estate agents and backed by cheap credit which will dry up. 

Do you not think their mammies will be keen to let them know about the risks of a crash, unlike the previous generation who were duped into believing property only goes up?

[Accountant Belfast]

1 hour ago, yadayada said:

Do you not think their mammies will be keen to let them know about the risks of a crash, unlike the previous generation who were duped into believing property only goes up?

I think their mammies must be still in shock of their own ordeal or too busy working multiple jobs paying off their over inflated mortgages to lift their heads and pay attention to millennials dreams of a unicorn filled lawn of their own . or maybe its just become the new norm to give up on your dreams and only go to work only to pay your mortgage and estate agents commissions.

another question.. mortgages of £350k plus which seem to be fairly common of something half decent worth actually going to work for,  are clearly being aimed at joint income multiples, what happens when these couples want kids of their own - extended periods of single income and additional family expenses ( child care etc.). in post war periods purchasing parody of a single income made this family dream possible, with the ever expanding proportion of income required and committed for an over inflated mortgage - what possibilities is this hurting elsewhere.

for many this is a short term view sold to those too short sighted to see it..

[yadayada]

3 minutes ago, Accountant Belfast said:

I think their mammies must be still in shock of their own ordeal or too busy working multiple jobs paying off their over inflated mortgages to lift their heads and pay attention to millennials dreams of a unicorn filled lawn of their own . or maybe its just become the new norm to give up on your dreams and only go to work only to pay your mortgage and estate agents commissions.

another question.. mortgages of £350k plus which seem to be fairly common of something half decent worth actually going to work for,  are clearly being aimed at joint income multiples, what happens when these couples want kids of their own - extended periods of single income and additional family expenses ( child care etc.). in post war periods purchasing parody of a single income made this family dream possible, with the ever expanding proportion of income required and committed for an over inflated mortgage - what possibilities is this hurting elsewhere.

for many this is a short term view sold to those too short sighted to see it..

It makes a mobile home on a patch of waste ground seem wildly attractive in comparison. Depressing stuff.

[2buyornot2buy]

4 minutes ago, Accountant Belfast said:

I think their mammies must be still in shock of their own ordeal or too busy working multiple jobs paying off their over inflated mortgages to lift their heads and pay attention to millennials dreams of a unicorn filled lawn of their own . or maybe its just become the new norm to give up on your dreams and only go to work only to pay your mortgage and estate agents commissions.

another question.. mortgages of £350k plus which seem to be fairly common of something half decent worth actually going to work for,  are clearly being aimed at joint income multiples, what happens when these couples want kids of their own - extended periods of single income and additional family expenses ( child care etc.). in post war periods purchasing parody of a single income made this family dream possible, with the ever expanding proportion of income required and committed for an over inflated mortgage - what possibilities is this hurting elsewhere.

for many this is a short term view sold to those too short sighted to see it..

They've made themselves debt slaves. 

[headmelter]

On 27/07/2018 at 14:27, JoeDavola said:

I do now keep my eye on Whiteabbey after our previous conversation! Anywhere that's an easy train ride to Botanic is do-able.

You could go as far out as Antrim or even B'Mena... 30 mins & 45 mins respectively on the train.... significantly lower house prices compared to Whiteabbey & Bfast imo.

[The_Equalizer]

On 07/08/2018 at 23:06, headmelter said:

You could go as far out as Antrim or even B'Mena... 30 mins & 45 mins respectively on the train.... significantly lower house prices compared to Whiteabbey & Bfast imo.

Or Lisburn, which takes about 10 minutes if the train is non-stop as I recently discovered. In face, so you long as you avoid Belfast and 'put up' with a small commute it's perfectly possible to buy a nice house without an eye watering mortgage.

[2buyornot2buy]

1 hour ago, The_Equalizer said:

Or Lisburn, which takes about 10 minutes if the train is non-stop as I recently discovered. In face, so you long as you avoid Belfast and 'put up' with a small commute it's perfectly possible to buy a nice house without an eye watering mortgage.

People usually like to be around family and friends.