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Interest Hike Aug 2nd - Will They / Won't They?


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On 11/07/2018 at 11:41, spyguy said:

Theyve got to.

They need at least 0.5% above the Fed to stop the pound falling.

The fall in the pound did fux all to UK exports.

Not until inflation is unbearable - so right now no reason to increase the rate.

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On 10/07/2018 at 22:20, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'll stick my head above the parapet and say, we're definitely getting an August rise 

That's brave. Didn't Canada just raise theirs? Yes they did, to the dizzy heights of 1.5%. I've very nearly given up hope of that vile pillock ever putting the rate up but surely he can't hold out forever when we're seeing these consistent rises across the pond? It inches up the odds for me to a 20% yes he will have to against 80% no never he doesn't even blinking know how.

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41 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Heard a lot of talk about 10-year fixed rate mortgages recently. An interest rate rise with the hint of more to come would be ideal to drive the sheep into buying those.

That'll be me, Baaa.

2 year fixes are 1.85% (ish), so a 10 year fix at 2.48% was my choice of poison.

May turn out to be a bad idea, maybe not.  I did it based off the back of rising US interest rates and also took guidance from DB's thread.  Maybe there won't be too much of an upside in the next few years, but it will hopefully offer protection against bad things in the last 5 years of the term.

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2 minutes ago, sisyphal said:

I did it based off the back of rising US interest rates and also took guidance from DB's thread.  Maybe there won't be too much of an upside in the next few years, but it will hopefully offer protection against bad things in the last 5 years of the term.

I hope it works out for you! If I read DB correctly he was forecasting falling interest rates in a crash (which would be against you) but straightaway a rise leading to double-digit inflation and rates in the early 2020s ish (fantastic for you.) The "sheep" problem is not the mortgage fix itself it is the fact that if someone takes a new one out now it implies they are buying a house at the top of the market. A young couple I know socially have just FTB'd and if things crash as we all expect/hope then they will be seriously underwater for years.

At the moment the banks seem desperate to sell any kind of mortgage fixed or not I get regular pleading emails from a broker I was with once.

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42 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I hope it works out for you! If I read DB correctly he was forecasting falling interest rates in a crash (which would be against you) but straightaway a rise leading to double-digit inflation and rates in the early 2020s ish (fantastic for you.) The "sheep" problem is not the mortgage fix itself it is the fact that if someone takes a new one out now it implies they are buying a house at the top of the market. A young couple I know socially have just FTB'd and if things crash as we all expect/hope then they will be seriously underwater for years.

At the moment the banks seem desperate to sell any kind of mortgage fixed or not I get regular pleading emails from a broker I was with once.

drop housing by half and interest rate on mortgages to 10 year fixed at 0.51% simple. 

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54 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I hope it works out for you! If I read DB correctly he was forecasting falling interest rates in a crash (which would be against you) but straightaway a rise leading to double-digit inflation and rates in the early 2020s ish (fantastic for you.) The "sheep" problem is not the mortgage fix itself it is the fact that if someone takes a new one out now it implies they are buying a house at the top of the market. A young couple I know socially have just FTB'd and if things crash as we all expect/hope then they will be seriously underwater for years.

At the moment the banks seem desperate to sell any kind of mortgage fixed or not I get regular pleading emails from a broker I was with once.

Yep, that was DB's prediction, thought you were a regular on there too.

You're right about banks and TPB pushing them though (hope I've not walked into a trap!).  I set mine in motion a few months back, but just did did a search on google news and it's interesting:

https://news.google.com/search?q=10 year fixed rate&hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

Lots of coordinated press.  Pushing 10 year fixed mortgages from the government backed banks (Lloyds/Halifax). It's suspicious.

 

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Same story every time.

During meeting or shortly after the decision to hold, broadcast strong signs of an imminent rise. Purely to stop the pound tanking.

Couple of weekly ahead of the meeting, there will be one naysayer strongly advising against rising. To soften the blow of it not rising.

Rinse and repeat. With half-hearted warnings of the high level of household debt inbetween.

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They'll all they can not to... including making it look like a close call... similar to Japan's economic modelling... keep pumping money... one trick pony economics... Quantitive Easing.... short run economics  is being expanded to normal economic theory... 

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On 14/07/2018 at 19:03, maverick73 said:

They'll all they can not to... including making it look like a close call... similar to Japan's economic modelling... keep pumping money... one trick pony economics... Quantitive Easing.... short run economics  is being expanded to normal economic theory... 

Japan exports loads.

All its debt is held by Japanese.

Uk is not Japan.

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