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Interest Hike Aug 2nd - Will They / Won't They?


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16 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

I think so too, and not just in the UK. The world needs a new reserve currency to replace the USD. The IMF's SDR basket is probably the only thing that would a) work b) be politically acceptable.

When it's clear enough the SDR basket is full of impossible promises, bitcoin will still be bitcoin.

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Not sure the UK economy is robust enough to withstand any more rate hikes. The onslaught against sterling suggests that Mr Market is getting a whiff of that scepticism too.

Reminds me a little of Soros and the ERM.

Although Carney did say if we had a hard brexit interest rates would be 4% and property down 30% - which sounds ideal to me.

Would we need an IMF loan given we can just print money with ease?

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2 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Although Carney did say if we had a hard brexit interest rates would be 4% and property down 30% - which sounds ideal to me.

Would we need an IMF loan given we can just print money with ease?

An IMF loan really means the IMF taking charge of govt spending. Yeah, it could happen; and a lot sooner than anyone imagines. Another bad winter this year and we could see a full-on sterling crisis with the lights out nationwide and people queueing for bread. Better believe it!

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12 hours ago, zugzwang said:

An IMF loan really means the IMF taking charge of govt spending. Yeah, it could happen; and a lot sooner than anyone imagines. Another bad winter this year and we could see a full-on sterling crisis with the lights out nationwide and people queueing for bread. Better believe it!

Fine with me. We would be in a recession or depression and house prices would sink. No one would touch property with a barge pole. I don't care how the bubble ends, I just want it to end.

 

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14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

1.2750. Look out below.

It really is criminal that the BoE allows inflation to rise over 2% and allows sterling to drop whilst rates are 0.75%.

Savers are hemorrhaging purchasing power whist mortgage borrowers are practically being paid to borrow. And we have a friggin housing bubble that's priced out a whole generation. It's so wrong.

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2 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

It really is criminal that the BoE allows inflation to rise over 2% and allows sterling to drop whilst rates are 0.75%.

Savers are hemorrhaging purchasing power whist mortgage borrowers are practically being paid to borrow. And we have a friggin housing bubble that's priced out a whole generation. It's so wrong.

 

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1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said:

Just shows the BoE are wrong. QE and low rates have not resulted in any growth, just a housing bubble.

Doesn't really show anything about QE.

1998-2008 growth was higher than it should be because it was pumped up by excessive lending.

And unless you know what would have happened to growth without QE then it's hard to say what effect it would have had. Maybe 2008-2018 would have been negative who knows.

What QE did was swap short term volatility for long term stagnation. Hard to say whether the net effect now is better or worse, certainly not from that graph.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Just shows the BoE are wrong. QE and low rates have not resulted in any growth, just a housing bubble.

Interest rates will stay low for another twenty years, says outgoing MPC member Ian McCafferty.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/09/interest-rates-will-stay-low-for-20-years-bank-of-england-expert

Plan A not working? Stick with it for another generation. :blink:

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