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Banks' surveyors downvaluing houses by up to 30%

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27 minutes ago, adarmo said:

We bought ours last year for 12% under original asking price. 

Close but no cigar.

You done very well. I was chuffed with almost 10%. 

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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

I dont really want to get into he said, she said.

But at the current transaction levels, a buyer at 370k means theres one less buyer at that price. In the areas i follow it means theres no buyers/cash left.

Interesting theory, a guy at work was looking at buying a Pram for £1000 they always sold on eBay used for £600+ he kept following them, and then one day they stopped selling as all the people who. Wanted them had one and the second hand price became £300

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8 hours ago, locky82 said:

It doesn’t invoke any feeling. So my big chunk of debt is only 8-10 years in spending money. You make my mortgage sound like a bargain. 

Not if you have that much debt to repay.😉

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13 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Your sensitivity suggests you bought the top of the bubble. A quick look at your posts says 2016, not far off.

Enjoy your home, life's too short to worry about negative equity.

I just bought in. STR’d in 2007 and 2017. This isn’t 2007-2010 and certainly not 1989-1996

A big crash is a long way off but anyway on a risk analysis who cares rent on a little semi £1800 - IO mortgage payment £400 on a five year fix so saving £84,000 over five years before fees pain the bum landlords etc and 4 bed detached in good area 35 mins by train from London 

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

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3 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

so saving £84,000 over five years before fees pain the bum landlords etc

We had this conversation on another thread, but you were a little more coherent then. I can't make sense of this at all.

4 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

Again, very incoherent. I think you're alluding to low rates, but I suggest you revise that view in light of the effects of the unprecedented experiment in manipulating asset prices that has now concluded, having destroyed any signals from the markets and rendered impotent any stimulus mechanisms except for more debasement of the Pound, which in turn can only lead to a vicious circle now that global central bank consensus is dead.

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6 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I just bought in. STR’d in 2007 and 2017. This isn’t 2007-2010 and certainly not 1989-1996

A big crash is a long way off but anyway on a risk analysis who cares rent on a little semi £1800 - IO mortgage payment £400 on a five year fix so saving £84,000 over five years before fees pain the bum landlords etc and 4 bed detached in good area 35 mins by train from London 

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

The UKs housing market is not really in the UKs hands - it all depends on how far and fast the US pushe up rates.

BoE/UK is a price taker on cash IRs; US is a price maker.

Like other 3rd word/emerging economies  - which the UK finances have rapidly become, the UK has to match US rates or see its currency fall. And prices rise.

Back to the original topic -Surveyors.

Daft idea.

A surveyor can only say if a house is safe/no problems - and theyve not got a great record on that.

What determines house pries -and the BoE have baked this in with MMR - is local wages and access to mortgage debt.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I just bought in. STR’d in 2007 and 2017. This isn’t 2007-2010 and certainly not 1989-1996

A big crash is a long way off but anyway on a risk analysis who cares rent on a little semi £1800 - IO mortgage payment £400 on a five year fix so saving £84,000 over five years before fees pain the bum landlords etc and 4 bed detached in good area 35 mins by train from London 

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

Define short term.

The issue is that house ownership is concentrated in the over 50s.

UK mortality fact - in 10 years time 50% of UK people 65 and over will be dead.

People tend to look at an hot area - London/SE and assume itll continue i nthe futre. It wont. And other areas are like that. They are not.

In London/Se the high paying jobs in finance are being/have been decimated.

You see it going to regional Southern towns which, 10+ years ago, had back offices and life companies, building societies etc. All these jobs paid a lot of money for little skills. 90% of these jobs have gone now. There's nothing close to replacing in them and the areas housing is too expensive to get a new company/industry in.

You only have to see the fall in train traffic. And the change in London demographics to see that London is rapidly becoming a limited jobless area. Watch the London median wage.

Outside of London, housing is concentrated even more in the older people.

Entire towns seem to be propped up by OAPs on (unfunded) defined benefit pensions spending.

Even as we speak, these lucrative, 'free' pensions are being replaced by private pensions, where the pensioner has been paying £50/m for their pension.

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Nomadd said:

And we wonder why this site has lost so many posters.. ..Even the Bears amongst us get labelled as EAs. 😲

I'm looking to buy in Altrincham (in the NW) at the moment. If you can provide links to decent houses in decent locations with decent price reductions - to match your reality-distortion field - then please go ahead. People like myself, Venger and many others can't seem to find them..

Maybe your EA's office is the only one with such properties on it's books? As I say, I'd love to see these dramatically reduced properties as soon as you can arrange the viewings. Your fat commission awaits. 🤑

I’ve given up on Alti due to the prices.  Now looking at Sale or Urmston.  Not seeing anything decent reducing in price or staying on the market for very long.

 

There are a load of overpriced probate/ex btl (based on how much work needs doing to update them) semis that sit on the market for ages though.

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Define short term.

The issue is that house ownership is concentrated in the over 50s.

UK mortality fact - in 10 years time 50% of UK people 65 and over will be dead.

People tend to look at an hot area - London/SE and assume itll continue i nthe futre. It wont. And other areas are like that. They are not.

In London/Se the high paying jobs in finance are being/have been decimated.

You see it going to regional Southern towns which, 10+ years ago, had back offices and life companies, building societies etc. All these jobs paid a lot of money for little skills. 90% of these jobs have gone now. There's nothing close to replacing in them and the areas housing is too expensive to get a new company/industry in.

You only have to see the fall in train traffic. And the change in London demographics to see that London is rapidly becoming a limited jobless area. Watch the London median wage.

Outside of London, housing is concentrated even more in the older people.

Entire towns seem to be propped up by OAPs on (unfunded) defined benefit pensions spending.

Even as we speak, these lucrative, 'free' pensions are being replaced by private pensions, where the pensioner has been paying £50/m for their pension.

 

 

 

 

Totally agree but then medium turn will bring life back to areas that have fast access to the hubs like London, Manchester Leeds etc

I might be unusual in that where I live South Herts most affluent older people seem to have or still own their own businesses - but I would agree in the sub £500k bracket ( mid range for round here ) plenty of the type you describe 

Hertfordshire is very unusual in that it has a net influx of workers every morning - totally distinct from the Surrey’s and Kent’s as a home county

In fact the most miles of motorway in the south within a county.

35 min slow train to London 40 mins on a motorbike in rush hour , £9 return from two tube stations within 15 mins drive 

It works and that’s what people pay for - though still loads cheaper than London 

No coincidence the Garden Cities we’re located there 

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25 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Totally agree but then medium turn will bring life back to areas that have fast access to the hubs like London, Manchester Leeds etc

I might be unusual in that where I live South Herts most affluent older people seem to have or still own their own businesses - but I would agree in the sub £500k bracket ( mid range for round here ) plenty of the type you describe 

Hertfordshire is very unusual in that it has a net influx of workers every morning - totally distinct from the Surrey’s and Kent’s as a home county

In fact the most miles of motorway in the south within a county.

35 min slow train to London 40 mins on a motorbike in rush hour , £9 return from two tube stations within 15 mins drive 

It works and that’s what people pay for - though still loads cheaper than London 

No coincidence the Garden Cities we’re located there 

It depends.

Yorks fast train is just under 2h to KX.

People are reluctant to do >50m commutes Mon-Fri.

But if your doing 2-3 dats in London, premuer inning, then the rest of uk opens up, leaving the traditional commuter towns in the dust.

Mon-Fri comuting is getting doubly hit.

No more train subs, which mainly went to London - 50% of uk train journets start or end in London.

MMR is based on after tax and regular spend earnings. A 10k commuting cost - train and parking, will take ahuge gouge out of the mortgage.

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5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

It depends.

Yorks fast train is just under 2h to KX.

People are reluctant to do >50m commutes Mon-Fri.

But if your doing 2-3 dats in London, premuer inning, then the rest of uk opens up, leaving the traditional commuter towns in the dust.

Mon-Fri comuting is getting doubly hit.

No more train subs, which mainly went to London - 50% of uk train journets start or end in London.

MMR is based on after tax and regular spend earnings. A 10k commuting cost - train and parking, will take ahuge gouge out of the mortgage.

I think people always confuse commuting with living close - the quality of life is no different but it would seem to me the stress is massive - if I have a couple of beers I can leave the bike, Miss the train and get an Uber for £30 what are my options if I miss my last train to York, Leeds, Manchester ?

Re commuting the £9 is for a rock up fare in rush hour day x 200 days = £1800. You can always park for free near a tube if you know where to look zone 5-6.

Personally seen too many live this sort of half life trying to get away earlyish on a Friday and dreading Monday morning just to have the dream house 100 miles + from London 

So totally agree re train subs and if spreads to tfl will mean more time on a motorbike for me 👍 50mpg even for a powerful machine, allowed in bus lanes and parking max £1 a day but usually free

Bike usage seems to be rocketing in London anecdotally and all sorts of new technology coming out now there is a three wheel powerful machine Yamaha Nikken ( very hard to fall off although I am sure some will try)

Totally agree the long distance commute is over and with flexible working can only bring back life and commerce to all our other cities and towns surely ! Which will be great 

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4 hours ago, darkmarket said:

We had this conversation on another thread, but you were a little more coherent then. I can't make sense of this at all.

Again, very incoherent. I think you're alluding to low rates, but I suggest you revise that view in light of the effects of the unprecedented experiment in manipulating asset prices that has now concluded, having destroyed any signals from the markets and rendered impotent any stimulus mechanisms except for more debasement of the Pound, which in turn can only lead to a vicious circle now that global central bank consensus is dead.

I have to live somewhere so I either pay £110k in rent for a three bed semi or £24k in interest on an IO mortgage on a 4 bed detached house over 5 years and obviously better quality of life space etc 

So the house I have just bought can drop nearly £90k and I am still net equal after 5 years on renting 

My rate is fixed and because the £300k mortgage can be paid off anyway (I downsized if you read some other posts ) I use the money I could of put in to accrue more than 1.76% a year the mortgage costs me. If I factored that in the saving would be greater.

So in very simple terms - money is once in a lifetime cheap It is cheaper for me to ‘rent’ from the bank than a landlord 

My rate is fixed for five years and could of got 10 at 2.2 - cheap money is not going away 

 

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Maybe this website should change it's name to House Price Purchase?

Loads of drops in the south east, just look on Rightmove.

Houses are always, unfortunately, going to sell this time of year. I'm looking forward to the autumn myself. I'm also looking forward to another interest rate rise...

 

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34 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I think people always confuse commuting with living close - the quality of life is no different but it would seem to me the stress is massive - if I have a couple of beers I can leave the bike, Miss the train and get an Uber for £30 what are my options if I miss my last train to York, Leeds, Manchester ?

Re commuting the £9 is for a rock up fare in rush hour day x 200 days = £1800. You can always park for free near a tube if you know where to look zone 5-6.

Personally seen too many live this sort of half life trying to get away earlyish on a Friday and dreading Monday morning just to have the dream house 100 miles + from London 

So totally agree re train subs and if spreads to tfl will mean more time on a motorbike for me 👍 50mpg even for a powerful machine, allowed in bus lanes and parking max £1 a day but usually free

Bike usage seems to be rocketing in London anecdotally and all sorts of new technology coming out now there is a three wheel powerful machine Yamaha Nikken ( very hard to fall off although I am sure some will try)

Totally agree the long distance commute is over and with flexible working can only bring back life and commerce to all our other cities and towns surely ! Which will be great 

Well, im not talking Mon Fri.

KX Yawk last train 1130pmish.

As far as bikes, i see those 3 wheeled 500cc scooters taking over the niche those wierd 360 fairings bmws.

Just need a critical mass to get more numbers on the road so people dont feel 'special' ruding them. Although i felt v special coming off a 2 wheeler at 50mph.

The 3 wheelers are virtually impossible to fall off.

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6 hours ago, GregBowman said:

 

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

The govt and Boe probably have no problem with falling house prices in so far as the falls aren't fast enough to destabilise the broader economy and banks, or to stop houses being built, or to lose them a GE. IMHO.

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2 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I have to live somewhere so I either pay £110k in rent for a three bed semi or £24k in interest on an IO mortgage on a 4 bed detached house over 5 years and obviously better quality of life space etc 

So the house I have just bought can drop nearly £90k and I am still net equal after 5 years on renting 

My rate is fixed and because the £300k mortgage can be paid off anyway (I downsized if you read some other posts ) I use the money I could of put in to accrue more than 1.76% a year the mortgage costs me. If I factored that in the saving would be greater.

So in very simple terms - money is once in a lifetime cheap It is cheaper for me to ‘rent’ from the bank than a landlord 

My rate is fixed for five years and could of got 10 at 2.2 - cheap money is not going away 

 

I think you are using your own earlier peak cash in situation to justify your new purchase when the OP is about valuation. 

Valuation as SG says can turn down as work start becoming more and more remote. You need to understand people's mentality once prices go down even if it's just 1-2 percentage, buyers postpone their decision amplifying the falls, given the seller is BTL scum who cannot hold on to a loss making investment anymore they amplify the fall as a forced seller. 

My take on the recent BTL tax changes are not because government want to do good to people, it's because they have realised they can't get away form any more bad. This is the least necessary policy response which cannot/will not be watered down anymore, as this is already the best possible watered down solution.

 

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13 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I just bought in. STR’d in 2007 and 2017. This isn’t 2007-2010 and certainly not 1989-1996

A big crash is a long way off but anyway on a risk analysis who cares rent on a little semi £1800 - IO mortgage payment £400 on a five year fix so saving £84,000 over five years before fees pain the bum landlords etc and 4 bed detached in good area 35 mins by train from London 

The problem is for everyone expecting a massive correction  in the short term the conditions are not in place for the houses people really want 

Bollaxs. Look at the prices.

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9 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I have to live somewhere so I either pay £110k in rent for a three bed semi or £24k in interest on an IO mortgage on a 4 bed detached house over 5 years and obviously better quality of life space etc 

So the house I have just bought can drop nearly £90k and I am still net equal after 5 years on renting 

My rate is fixed and because the £300k mortgage can be paid off anyway (I downsized if you read some other posts ) I use the money I could of put in to accrue more than 1.76% a year the mortgage costs me. If I factored that in the saving would be greater.

So in very simple terms - money is once in a lifetime cheap It is cheaper for me to ‘rent’ from the bank than a landlord 

My rate is fixed for five years and could of got 10 at 2.2 - cheap money is not going away 

 

Man with house says buying house on IO mortgage good.

 

Interest rates might need to shoot up to 3% in the next 12 months, his does that affect your sums?

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Man with house says buying house on IO mortgage good.

 

Interest rates might need to shoot up to 3% in the next 12 months, his does that affect your sums?

It’s all there... clearly using his figures he can take his mortgage rate going up to 7% before it costs the the SAME as renting. But he also clearly states its fixed, so it’s only a price fall of over 90k that would be an issue. Also says “renting from a bank is cheaper than renting from a landlord”. So he doesn't sound particularly interested in the ownership side of it, just somewhere to live. Hard to argue figures but I’m sure you’ll try. 

Edited by locky82

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21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Man with house says buying house on IO mortgage good.

 

Interest rates might need to shoot up to 3% in the next 12 months, his does that affect your sums?

Greg's just giving a POV which he is outlining and placing limits on very honestly, and he's right, the ingredients for a CRASH aren't here right now.

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10 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I have to live somewhere so I either pay £110k in rent for a three bed semi or £24k in interest on an IO mortgage on a 4 bed detached house over 5 years and obviously better quality of life space etc 

So the house I have just bought can drop nearly £90k and I am still net equal after 5 years on renting

I see, it's the cheap money argument shoehorned into a thread on valuations this time. It was more apt the last time.

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15 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I see, it's the cheap money argument shoehorned into a thread on valuations this time. It was more apt the last time.

it IS a cheap money argument, with the same caveats (forgone profit on the equity, loan availability, uncertain future, physical deprec etc) - but Greg isn't denying that. And it's true, we have negative real interest rates. It's mental and I'm not sure Greg is arguing otherwise.

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12 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I see, it's the cheap money argument shoehorned into a thread on valuations this time. It was more apt the last time.

Oh my. Basics.

Yes the value of money and the value of assets are in no way linked. 

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8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

it IS a cheap money argument

By that logic, every thread is just the right place for Greg to post again and again how he's just bought a new house for his little girl because cheap money. It's relevant but it's not the point.

9 minutes ago, locky82 said:

Oh my. Basics.

Yes the value of money and the value of assets are in no way linked. 

Such genius, very clever.

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4 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

By that logic, every thread is just the right place for Greg to post again and again how he's just bought a new house for his little girl because cheap money. It's relevant but it's not the point.

I suppose so. One of the weaknesses of online fora is that they tend to be unedited. Some may find it tiresome, others may consider it a kind of emphasis.

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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