crazypabs Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18? last months may reported 1.9% annual increase https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, crazypabs said: what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18? last months may reported 1.9% annual increase https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early? Up 2% mom but somehow down yoy...oddly. Edited July 4, 2018 by TheCountOfNowhere Atrocious typing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, crazypabs said: what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18? last months may reported 1.9% annual increase https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early? Published Friday 6th according to: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horseradish Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 It's relatively irrelevant because Halifax's index bounces around quite a lot, right? ?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 (edited) A euphoric, World Cup winning +3.8%. Landlord Robbie Fowler says 'earn money in your sleep.' Bobby Moore's wife Tina is selling all her jewellery and putting the cash into Buy-to-Lets. Edited July 4, 2018 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazypabs Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 8 hours ago, neon tetra said: Published Friday 6th according to: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php Darn it IG index have it. Listed in the calendar for today and tomorrow, of course it is tomorrow, sorry all i was given fake news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 hours ago, crazypabs said: what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18? last months may reported 1.9% annual increase https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early? Cannot say I am expecting much, I would put a guess at between -3 to +3%, with there being no particular figure that is going to float my boat. Yet I will constantly monitor LR, Nationwide, Halifax, RM and RICS, read most of the posters I like on HPC and read many of the more reputable news sources hoping one day I will read that one item that will convince me that it is GAME ON. As of yet I have not even come close to that one special post/data or inspirational article, anyone up for the challenge?.. Logic, the maths and good reputable facts tell me that a property crash is as close to certain as you are going to get, my heart and head are not nearly as convinced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Someone please double check but last month I did a bit of quick maths and saw that they would need something like a +1.5% MoM to stop the YoY falling - this was due to having to compensate for March’s £228k falling out of the 3 month average. So with any luck it is under that and tomorrow’s headlines can be something like ‘UK house price growth continues to wane’. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 An VI releasing it’s own unverified data. Let me mull over this one...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 I wonder if it will show a large fall, a catchup of the last months massaged figures.... bury the bad news in the world cup fever... then hope have positive figures for the next months after, when the world cup fever is over. "A good time to bury bad news" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 CPi inflation is 2.2% over last year, and RPI 3.2%, IIRC? real terms we're seeing stasis or mild falls already, nationally, then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 hours ago, LetsBuild said: Someone please double check but last month I did a bit of quick maths and saw that they would need something like a +1.5% MoM to stop the YoY falling - this was due to having to compensate for March’s £228k falling out of the 3 month average. So with any luck it is under that and tomorrow’s headlines can be something like ‘UK house price growth continues to wane’. By my calculations, +1.3% MoM or below would lead to YoY negative, 1.4% or above would lead to YoY positive. (though it’s strictly +1.34 that is the cutoff, so 1.3% could actually be YoY positive) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 13 hours ago, neon tetra said: By my calculations, +1.3% MoM or below would lead to YoY negative, 1.4% or above would lead to YoY positive. (though it’s strictly +1.34 that is the cutoff, so 1.3% could actually be YoY positive) Thanks for the confirm. Obviously hoping for another negative MoM but it is reassuring that they need another strong month just to keep the YoY stable! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Up 0.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 +0.3% MoM - this could be good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/June-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf Annual unchanged 1.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 1 minute ago, rantnrave said: https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/June-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf Annual unchanged 1.8% Clearly my calculations were wrong. They have some serious wizardry in their figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Bullish report... Average house price now the same as October 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, neon tetra said: Clearly my calculations were wrong. They have some serious wizardry in their figures. I was just about to say this! I ran a load of scenarios last month and a 0.3% should have tanked the YoY?! They must be seriously rigging last years numbers that have fallen out of sight to be massaging the YoY to 1.8%. There is no hiding the -0.7% QoQ though :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LetsBuild said: There is no hiding the -0.7% QoQ though They give an explanation trying to fudge that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, neon tetra said: Clearly my calculations were wrong. They have some serious wizardry in their figures. I am coming around to the opinion that house prices will never see a sudden shock on the downside while finances are seen as stable, of all the analogies I have read on here the "slowly boiling frog" is the most apt one for one of two directions the housing market will go. Either a slow drawn out correction over decades, maybe even 50 years, or one massive shock sooner, I am going for the massive shock, China/US trade wars, Brexit, who knows. But these indicies will never substantially go down until they give the people a sudden wake up call and a shock to their lives and finances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, LetsBuild said: I was just about to say this! I ran a load of scenarios last month and a 0.3% should have tanked the YoY?! They must be seriously rigging last years numbers that have fallen out of sight to be massaging the YoY to 1.8%. No-one wants to be the first to deliver a negative YoY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doner Kebab Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Could have been worse I suppose. A bit of flat lining and we'll have YOY drops on this one in autumn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazypabs Posted July 6, 2018 Author Share Posted July 6, 2018 What I don't understand is how is it possible for the June 2017 and the May 2018 average house price to change Month Last Month figure This month Figure Change Jun-17 218,477 217,620 857 Jul 219,918 219,918 0 Aug 223,271 223,271 0 Sep 225,070 225,070 0 Oct 225,664 225,664 0 Nov 226,408 226,408 0 Dec 224,540 224,540 0 Jan-18 223,462 223,462 0 Feb 224,564 224,564 0 Mar 228,102 228,102 0 Apr 221,108 221,108 0 May 224,439 224,909 -470 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 56 minutes ago, crazypabs said: What I don't understand is how is it possible for the June 2017 and the May 2018 average house price to change Month Last Month figure This month Figure Change Jun-17 218,477 217,620 857 Jul 219,918 219,918 0 Aug 223,271 223,271 0 Sep 225,070 225,070 0 Oct 225,664 225,664 0 Nov 226,408 226,408 0 Dec 224,540 224,540 0 Jan-18 223,462 223,462 0 Feb 224,564 224,564 0 Mar 228,102 228,102 0 Apr 221,108 221,108 0 May 224,439 224,909 -470 Is this how the YoY figure has remained as high as it has? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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