Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
crazypabs

Halifax hpi june 18

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18?

 last months may reported 1.9% annual increase

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early?

Up 2% mom but somehow down yoy...oddly.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Atrocious typing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18?

 last months may reported 1.9% annual increase

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early?

Published Friday 6th according to: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A euphoric, World Cup winning +3.8%.

Landlord Robbie Fowler says 'earn money in your sleep.'

Bobby Moore's wife Tina is selling all her jewellery and putting the cash into Buy-to-Lets.

tenor.gif

Edited by zugzwang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
10 hours ago, crazypabs said:

what are your expectations for the june report being published 5th jul 18?

 last months may reported 1.9% annual increase

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/May-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

will we see the tail end of a spring bounce or will the quiet summer arrive early?

Cannot say I am expecting much, I would put a guess at between -3 to +3%, with there being no particular figure that is going to float my boat. Yet I will constantly monitor LR, Nationwide, Halifax, RM and RICS, read most of the posters I like on HPC and read many of the more reputable news sources hoping one day I will read that one item that will convince me that it is GAME ON.

As of yet  I have not even come close to that one special post/data or inspirational article, anyone up for the challenge🙂.. Logic, the maths and good reputable facts tell me that a property crash is as close to certain as you are going to get, my heart and head are not nearly as convinced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Someone please double check but last month I did a bit of quick maths and saw that they would need something like a +1.5% MoM to stop the YoY falling - this was due to having to compensate for March’s £228k falling out of the 3 month average. So with any luck it is under that and tomorrow’s headlines can be something like ‘UK house price growth continues to wane’. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if it will show a large fall, a catchup of the last months massaged figures.... bury the bad news in the world cup fever... then hope have positive figures for the next months after, when the world cup fever is over.

 

"A good time to bury bad news"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CPi inflation is 2.2% over last year, and RPI 3.2%, IIRC?

 

real terms we're seeing stasis or mild falls already, nationally, then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

Someone please double check but last month I did a bit of quick maths and saw that they would need something like a +1.5% MoM to stop the YoY falling - this was due to having to compensate for March’s £228k falling out of the 3 month average. So with any luck it is under that and tomorrow’s headlines can be something like ‘UK house price growth continues to wane’. :)

By my calculations, +1.3% MoM or below would lead to YoY negative, 1.4% or above would lead to YoY positive.

(though it’s strictly +1.34 that is the cutoff, so 1.3% could actually be YoY positive)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, neon tetra said:

By my calculations, +1.3% MoM or below would lead to YoY negative, 1.4% or above would lead to YoY positive.

(though it’s strictly +1.34 that is the cutoff, so 1.3% could actually be YoY positive)

Thanks for the confirm. Obviously hoping for another negative MoM but it is reassuring that they need another strong month just to keep the YoY stable!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

Clearly my calculations were wrong. They have some serious wizardry in their figures.

I was just about to say this! I ran a load of scenarios last month and a 0.3% should have tanked the YoY?! They must be seriously rigging last years numbers that have fallen out of sight to be massaging the YoY to 1.8%.

There is no hiding the -0.7% QoQ though :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
4 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

Clearly my calculations were wrong. They have some serious wizardry in their figures.

I am coming around to the opinion that house prices will never see a sudden shock on the downside while finances are seen as stable, of all the analogies I have read on here the "slowly boiling frog" is the most apt one for one of two directions the housing market will go. Either a slow drawn out correction over decades, maybe even 50 years, or one massive shock sooner, I am going for the massive shock, China/US trade wars, Brexit, who knows. But these indicies will never substantially go down until they give the people a sudden wake up call and a shock to their lives and finances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

5 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

I was just about to say this! I ran a load of scenarios last month and a 0.3% should have tanked the YoY?! They must be seriously rigging last years numbers that have fallen out of sight to be massaging the YoY to 1.8%.

No-one wants to be the first to deliver a negative YoY

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What I don't understand is how is it possible for the June 2017 and the May 2018 average house price to change

Month Last Month figure This month Figure Change
Jun-17 218,477 217,620 857
Jul 219,918 219,918 0
Aug 223,271 223,271 0
Sep 225,070 225,070 0
Oct 225,664 225,664 0
Nov 226,408 226,408 0
Dec 224,540 224,540 0
Jan-18 223,462 223,462 0
Feb 224,564 224,564 0
Mar 228,102 228,102 0
Apr 221,108 221,108 0
May 224,439 224,909 -470

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

56 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

What I don't understand is how is it possible for the June 2017 and the May 2018 average house price to change

Month Last Month figure This month Figure Change
Jun-17 218,477 217,620 857
Jul 219,918 219,918 0
Aug 223,271 223,271 0
Sep 225,070 225,070 0
Oct 225,664 225,664 0
Nov 226,408 226,408 0
Dec 224,540 224,540 0
Jan-18 223,462 223,462 0
Feb 224,564 224,564 0
Mar 228,102 228,102 0
Apr 221,108 221,108 0
May 224,439 224,909 -470

Is this how the YoY figure has remained as high as it has?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.