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deano_54321

Thats It! Im Buying!

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Ahh ha, thought there was a gag coming.

How patient are you - for me I guess it's as long as it takes.

I would love a complete collapse as we'd get back on our feet quicker as a Nation IMO.

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Ahh ha, thought there was a gag coming.

How patient are you - for me I guess it's as long as it takes.

I would love a complete collapse as we'd get back on our feet quicker as a Nation IMO.

Agree with you completely. How long will i wait? As long as it takes. I live with and get on fine with my parents, I'd be silly to move out. My girlfriend is German and won't be coming over for at least 2 years, so thats a good stretch, and if we have to stretch it out a bit longer we will stay with my parents until it seems the right time. There is no way I'm going to be forced into buying, if there were more people like me and you the crash would be even more sure to happen. Admittedly, I have it easy living with my parents - but theres ALWAYS other options. There are plenty of empty bedrooms out there!

If I have to I will leave the country (for Germany or Ausria), as I think they are also well geared for the future, even though they are currently seeing hard times after the re-unification & intro of the Euro. And they're beautiful countries too. I do love England, but I won't stay here if things dont improve from a property point of view.

Good luck!

Deano

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NOT!!!!

:D

Sorry couldnt resist it! :lol:

Deano

And I can't resist repeating that without very high unemployment figures and high interests rates there will be no HPC. The South East in particular is now a hotspot for overseas investors with deep pockets, hence the continuing rise in prices albeit slowly. In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

Soon a dual housemarket will develop as is happening in Cape Town, South Africa. Locals can no longer afford to buy or compete with foreigners. Hence, the only places they can afford to purchase are the places the international investors do not want to buy. As one who has hoped for a more sensible housing market, this is bad news.

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And I can't resist repeating that without very high unemployment figures and high interests rates there will be no HPC. The South East in particular is now a hotspot for overseas investors with deep pockets, hence the continuing rise in prices albeit slowly. In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

Soon a dual housemarket will develop as is happening in Cape Town, South Africa. Locals can no longer afford to buy or compete with foreigners. Hence, the only places they can afford to purchase are the places the international investors do not want to buy. As one who has hoped for a more sensible housing market, this is bad news.

Good job I'm getting fluent in German then!!!

Wont be sticking around if that happens.... theres a lot more cheaper land to be living on.

If what you are saying happens, the only English people living in England will be very rich ones!!

And dont think I disagree with you, I dont! This country is going down the pan UNLESS house prices become more realistic soon. We are living in a false economy in the UK only driven by house prices. Its ridiculous.

Edited by deano_54321

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And I can't resist repeating that without very high unemployment figures and high interests rates there will be no HPC. The South East in particular is now a hotspot for overseas investors with deep pockets, hence the continuing rise in prices albeit slowly. In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

Soon a dual housemarket will develop as is happening in Cape Town, South Africa. Locals can no longer afford to buy or compete with foreigners. Hence, the only places they can afford to purchase are the places the international investors do not want to buy. As one who has hoped for a more sensible housing market, this is bad news.

This is a new and interesting assertion. Which countries' inhabitants do you think are putting money into UK properties? Why do you think they are doing this given that the rental returns are now so poor?

frugalista

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And I can't resist repeating that without very high unemployment figures and high interests rates there will be no HPC. The South East in particular is now a hotspot for overseas investors with deep pockets, hence the continuing rise in prices albeit slowly. In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

Soon a dual housemarket will develop as is happening in Cape Town, South Africa. Locals can no longer afford to buy or compete with foreigners. Hence, the only places they can afford to purchase are the places the international investors do not want to buy. As one who has hoped for a more sensible housing market, this is bad news.

That is quite frankly the most ridiculous post I have read on HPC since Laurejon had his lobotomy!

I can understand that wealthy foreigners would buy property in London..... and at a stretch maybe some of the leafiest, nicest areas very nearby.... but the whole of the south east being affected by inwards investment :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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That is quite frankly the most ridiculous post I have read on HPC since Laurejon had his lobotomy!

I can understand that wealthy foreigners would buy property in London..... and at a stretch maybe some of the leafiest, nicest areas very nearby.... but the whole of the south east being affected by inwards investment

I don’t know – but I am presuming that we still have about 200000 immigrants coming into the UK each year- if I was coming to the UK I would head to London where there are no new buildings being built making a shortage.

Personally I think this number of immigrants and the ease that you can borrow money could easily propel the market upwards indefinitely.

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I don’t know – but I am presuming that we still have about 200000 immigrants coming into the UK each year- if I was coming to the UK I would head to London where there are no new buildings being built making a shortage.

Personally I think this number of immigrants and the ease that you can borrow money could easily propel the market upwards indefinitely.

The banks cannot lend money indefinately though can they. They can lend about nine times their reserves. So if people stop making deposits the banks stop lending, they have balance sheets too.

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The banks cannot lend money indefinately though can they. They can lend about nine times their reserves. So if people stop making deposits the banks stop lending, they have balance sheets too.

No but another 10 years should be much of a problem

The problem only happens when people can not pay there debts i.e. interest rates goes up or the cost of living goes up or perhaps there property goes down –

I don’t think enough of the above has happened yet, and soon we will see there wages go up as the BOE ignore the true inflation

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... In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

in other words ... IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!

hahahahahahah :-)

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Writing in the Times, Anatole Kaletsky suggests house prices could continue rising despite a worsening UK economy. It's because of excess savings in the developing economies:

Edited by dunderhead

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And I can't resist repeating that without very high unemployment figures and high interests rates there will be no HPC. The South East in particular is now a hotspot for overseas investors with deep pockets, hence the continuing rise in prices albeit slowly. In an international market FTB's are redundant i.e earnings to house prices does not matter the fuel for continuing price growth is coming from elsewhere.

Soon a dual housemarket will develop as is happening in Cape Town, South Africa. Locals can no longer afford to buy or compete with foreigners. Hence, the only places they can afford to purchase are the places the international investors do not want to buy. As one who has hoped for a more sensible housing market, this is bad news.

I take it you are one half of "Jem and Dave" from Channel 5's "How to be a Property Developer?"

I suppose it works like this: you buy property in Dubai, they buy in UK. Everyone's a winner!

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Thank you, you've underlined my point. Not all immigrants are dirt poor, many are relatively wealthy professionals and entrepreneurs -they can afford to buy in the best suburbs and towns in the South East. Further to my point concerning wealthy foreigners many from developing countries. China has grown by more than 9% per annum over the past five years. This growth rate is set to increase over the next few years. It has created large numbers of very wealthy people. Buying property in the UK is a status symbol for many Chinese as it is for Indians and as we all know the Russians. Most of these people are not overly concerned about rental returns. They invest for long term returns and most of all their investments are safe in the UK.

The Chinese are next in line to buy our football clubs.

Globalization!

So, let me get this right:

A Russian oil baron with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a beautiful Belle-Epoque palace on the river Volga, but a semi in Ilford.

A Chinese factory tycoon with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a golden pagoda on the Yangtze, but a small terraced house in Reading.

An Indian call-centre magnate with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a many-domed maharaja's fortress in Rajastan, but a new-build flat in Manchester.

If this ever happens, hats off to the EA!

frugalista

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So, let me get this right:

A Russian oil baron with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a beautiful Belle-Epoque palace on the river Volga, but a semi in Ilford.

A Chinese factory tycoon with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a golden pagoda on the Yangtze, but a small terraced house in Reading.

An Indian call-centre magnate with $0.5m to spend on a house is going to buy not a many-domed maharaja's fortress in Rajastan, but a new-build flat in Manchester.

If this ever happens, hats off to the EA!

frugalista

Wealthy people have always bought homes in countries other than their own. The UK is stable so is its currency, prices have kept on rising. Property is a safer bet still than many listed companies.

Foreign investors will prefer certain suburbs normally the upmarket ones. The problem is that since we statistically express house prices in averages it results in increasingly raised expectations by vendors even though they may live in undesirable areas. It keeps the sentiment of ever increasing prices going and anxious FTB's are either forced into the market or are left behind. Sadly.

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1061-1995647,00.html

But Asian competition has had an even bigger impact on global inflation and money flows. The Asians, as well as working for low wages, are remarkably thrifty, saving a high proportion of their incomes. Moreover, since many of them live in economically volatile and politically risky countries, with little respect for law and private property rights, they naturally want to keep part of their savings in safe, predictable countries with strong financial traditions — of which America, Britain, Canada and Australia are the prime examples.

As a result, the world has experienced a glut of savings and the Anglo-Saxon countries have enjoyed a huge influx of foreign money

Which goes some way to supporting Jem's point.

It's a frightening proposition that globalisation may make it different this time. Globalisation is a little known phenomena. Its power is undoubted. What is clear, in the face of globalisation, there is insufficient evidence to claim it won't be different this time.

I think Jem raises an interesting point.

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Wealthy people have always bought homes in countries other than their own. The UK is stable so is its currency, prices have kept on rising. Property is a safer bet still than many listed companies.

Foreign investors will prefer certain suburbs normally the upmarket ones. The problem is that since we statistically express house prices in averages it results in increasingly raised expectations by vendors even though they may live in undesirable areas. It keeps the sentiment of ever increasing prices going and anxious FTB's are either forced into the market or are left behind. Sadly.

Okay, it sounds like you have three arguments.

1 - Rich foreigners will buy UK property because it is a prestige purchase.

2 - Rich foreigners will buy UK property because it is a good investment.

3 - Rich foreigners will buy UK property because they want to offshore some of their money due to the political, fiscal or economic climate of their home country.

Argument 1 may have some merit (they can brag about "my house in London") but I think I have already dealt with the fact that they can buy something that seems to give them a lot more prestige points in their own country. When you get to the kind of UK property which actually looks good in boastful photos, you are talking about a very small group of rich foreigners who could actually afford it!

Argument 2. These days, any rich foreigner has all the access to data that we do here in the UK. They can walk into an airport in Moscow or Shanghai and pick up a copy of The Economist or Money Week which will tell them that UK property is a poor investment right now. They are not stupid (well most aren't anyway) and know about cycles and bubbles. PLUS they do not get all the makeover style property hype from the likes of Channel 4 and the BBC.

Argument 3. There is a million different ways rich foreigners can offshore their money. And many of these ways are a lot less traceable and more liquid than buying UK property. Unlike UK residents, they do not need a UK property to retire in or bring up children in. They have a million different investments to choose from, UK bonds, UK stocks, cash, or non-UK investments. They may well be in it for the long term, but they might well bet that shares in a large British multinational will do better over that period. If they buy in now, they are making the classic investor error of chasing past performance. Perhaps some will fall for it, but given that they are *rich* foreigners, you'd expect them to be a bit cleverer.

frugalista

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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