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Longer tenancies coming our way

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3 minutes ago, DisgruntledCynic said:

theres an election coming isn’t there? Just enough to try and capture some millennial votes

Maybe. Maybe not.

If S24  upset the leveraged LL, a 3 year tenancy will hammer any bank debt secured on a BTL.

As I keep saying - deposit taking banks should not have touched BTL is a barge poll.

Banks will need to hold 100% of the debt on IO BTL as capital.

Nationwide CEO/board/treasurer must be readign that propsoal and looking pretty ill.

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24 minutes ago, inbruges said:

https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44671094

Three year tenancies on there way, I know a lot of BTL landlords who will not like this, and if Labour do get in it will be even worse. for them

Its not aimed at the LL.

Its aimed at the bank lending to BTL.

Seriously. The major plank when the idiots at ARLA made the pitch for BTL loans was that, with a 6 month tenancy, the risk to a bank not being able to get its money back were low.

Now the banks are really fuxxed.

LL stops paying mortgage, sitting tennant. Bank cant repo for 3 years.

This law would see most retial banks exit BTL.

The risk on having BTL on your books now goes up massively.

All the BTL retail bankers will be running to the toilet to throw up their breakfast on this news.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Its not aimed at the LL.

Its aimed at the bank lending to BTL.

Seriously. The major plank when the idiots at ARLA made the pitch for BTL loans was that, with a 6 month tenancy, the risk to a bank not being able to get its money back were low.

Now the banks are really fuxxed.

LL stops paying mortgage, sitting tennant. Bank cant repo for 3 years.

This law would see most retial banks exit BTL.

The risk on having BTL on your books now goes up massively.

All the BTL retail bankers will be running to the toilet to throw up their breakfast on this news.

 

 

That never really crossed my mind, good point. What the highly speculative property market could handle is a good old fashioned credit crunch, monopoly money has been nourishing the market for years now.

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18 minutes ago, DisgruntledCynic said:

theres an election coming isn’t there? Just enough to try and capture some millennial votes

I really cannot stand Teresa May, but the one thing I never had her down as was a liar. Recent months have shown me that she is one of the more prolific, even asked a simple question about "what's the naughtiest thing you have done" she went into one of those face spasms/gurns where you know they are lying.

She will say anything to get what she wants, so yes I agree that this could be just what you say.

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4 minutes ago, inbruges said:

That never really crossed my mind, good point. What the highly speculative property market could handle is a good old fashioned credit crunch, monopoly money has been nourishing the market for years now.

My arugment against IO BTL has been that regulated banks have been lending commercial bridging loans at OOO mortgage prices. Its insane. IO BTL ought to be charged at ~4%/month.

IO BTL is massive mis pricing of credit. With a huge contingency fall out o nthe young.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

My arugment against IO BTL has been that regulated banks have been lending commercial bridging loans at OOO mortgage prices. Its insane. IO BTL ought to be charged at ~4%/month.

IO BTL is massive mis pricing of credit. With a huge contingency fall out o nthe young.

 

 

One thing that has bugged me for years with the huge amounts loaned to many of the BTL landlords  is their attitudes. I have had many conversations with many of them and so many times when I ask what would you do if it all went t**s up and the market crashed, so many times I have heard "the banks can go whistle".

So often we hear that one day the BTL scum will pay a terrible price for their gambling, but the truth is many of us will pay for it.

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An hour on this has just started on LBC Radio.

Starting with the Residential Landlords Association - landlords want to be able to get their property back if things go wrong. But he suggests offering a tax break to those who offer longer tenancies. Wants this to be voluntary and not to be forced. Also, what about students who tend to move around [clearly forgetting the one year tenant optionality].

eMove on second to state that there will be less liquidity but net will be the same. Also we have the lowest security compared to other countries. Actually this gives landlords more security. Tenants do want longer tenancies. The guest also pointed out letting fees for renewals.

 

Edited by Ah-so

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7 minutes ago, inbruges said:

One thing that has bugged me for years with the huge amounts loaned to many of the BTL landlords  is their attitudes. I have had many conversations with many of them and so many times when I ask what would you do if it all went t**s up and the market crashed, so many times I have heard "the banks can go whistle".

So often we hear that one day the BTL scum will pay a terrible price for their gambling, but the truth is many of us will pay for it.

Now the price will be paid by the banks and the LL.

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11 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

An hour on this has just started on LBC Radio.

Starting with the Residential Landlords Association - landlords want to be able to get their property back if things go wrong. But he suggests offering a tax break to those who offer longer tenancies. Wants this to be voluntary and not to be forced. Also, what about students who tend to move around [clearly forgetting the one year tenant optionality].

eMove on second to state that there will be less liquidity but net will be the same. Also we have the lowest security compared to other countries. Actually this gives landlords more security. Tenants do want longer tenancies. The guest also pointed out letting fees for renewals.

 

Surely most of the above true - but whatever the reasoning longer tenancies must be good for tenants ?

i know if I could of secured a decent five year rental last year when we sold  would of stayed renting instead of buying in just for a bit of stability 

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The Parasite118 crew have always stated that multi-year tenancies were not necessary because tenants didn't want them, completely misunderstanding that the tenancies did not have to be symmetrical. 

The other observation is that mortgage conditions  do not allow it. Well, they will need to be changed. Easy.

Just to add, the BBC article is inviting comments - please add yours.

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First landlord phoning in to complain - landlords don't want to lose good tenants and prices are just a matter of supply and demand like any good. 

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I'm waiting

3 minutes ago, RomfordDon said:

Will the rent be fixed for 3 years?

I'm waiting for some f#ckwitted details. Or a dusty old Tory f#rt landlord MP in tweed jacket to filibuster it in parliament by discussing potatoes.

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10 minutes ago, RomfordDon said:

Will the rent be fixed for 3 years?

I will be very surprised if the tenant was obliged to sign up for three years, that should stay the same.

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6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm waiting

I'm waiting for some f#ckwitted details. Or a dusty old Tory f#rt landlord MP in tweed jacket to filibuster it in parliament by discussing potatoes.

Yep, May is a master and kicking the can down the road. She has managed to plough £20 Billion into the NHS without spending any money yet, the woman is a genius. Too many Tory Mp's and their friends and family are too heavily into BTL for anything to really be done.

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5 minutes ago, inbruges said:

I will be very surprised if the tenant was obliged to sign up for three years, that should stay the same.

Agreed - or rising by inflation.

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm waiting for some f#ckwitted details. 

It will come to nothing.  Discussion until August, and the current Abortion Room sweeping are very good at fence sitting, and lying (bulldozers or not).  It is a pretty poor attempt to look like they’re getting down with the kids.

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11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm waiting

I'm waiting for some f#ckwitted details. Or a dusty old Tory f#rt landlord MP in tweed jacket to filibuster it in parliament by discussing potatoes.

Well, a consultation is coming in, so we should all consult on it. The details as presented sound quite sensible, and I think if the Conservatives are behind it, Labour would be unlikely to try and vote it down.

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1 minute ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

It will come to nothing.  Discussion until August, and the current Abortion Room sweeping are very good at fence sitting, and lying (bulldozers or not).  It is a pretty poor attempt to look like they’re getting down with the kids.

I believe the are strategists in the Tory party that know they have to do something like this. But there are bigger VIs in the party against it. 

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1 minute ago, Ah-so said:

Well, a consultation is coming in, so we should all consult on it. 

Fair play. How do I do that?

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1 minute ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

It will come to nothing.  Discussion until August, and the current Abortion Room sweeping are very good at fence sitting, and lying (bulldozers or not).  It is a pretty poor attempt to look like they’re getting down with the kids.

In fact any probable policy in the future is unlikely, I am even talking manifesto stuff here as well these days. The excuse "well that's what we planned to do until xyz came along" . Brexit, trade war, the hot weather, there is always going to be a way for them to weazle out of their promises.

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1 minute ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

It will come to nothing.  Discussion until August, and the current Abortion Room sweeping are very good at fence sitting, and lying (bulldozers or not).  It is a pretty poor attempt to look like they’re getting down with the kids.

This is a typical and rather predictable response. This is hardly a dramatic change that seriously upsets the rental market. And lets look at some of the changes that have been brought in over the past few years:

S24; removal of landlords' wear and tear allowance; abolition of rental charges; rules around HMOs and more. Why should this one be swept under the carpet when all the other have been introduced?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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