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Si1

MP argues hpi is damaging

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Well done to him and I'm not surprised as I was recently looking at house prices in Horsforth and other areas of north Leeds and they are pretty outrageous. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Si1 said:

Local Leeds MP says hpi is not good for the city, and it's a signal we need to build local houses for the masses:

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/growth-in-leeds-and-sheffield-house-prices-met-with-concern-from-mp-1-9228099

In contrast to the local Tory MPs who I only ever notice when they're on anti house building marches.

MP works out that inflation is bad... Jesus Christ...

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No need to build lots of houses, reigning in credit is all that's needed. Lending back to 3.5x salary, discourage BTL (being done it seems), and remove props such as SMI, HTB, FLS....

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10 hours ago, Eddie_George said:

No need to build lots of houses, reigning in credit is all that's needed. Lending back to 3.5x salary, discourage BTL (being done it seems), and remove props such as SMI, HTB, FLS....

I'm finding it very weird that many posters on here have this bizarre blind spot about this issue. The government's interference is the only reason we have a housing crisis. Take that away and house prices will correct overnight.

By the way, saying "increasing house prices are always bad" is like saying "weight gain is always bad for you". What about when you are a child, or if you have previously lost a lot of weight through illness?

The HPI we have had is a symptom of State interference and has been very bad for society, but that doesn't mean that shifts in house prices are by definition bad.

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10 hours ago, Eddie_George said:

No need to build lots of houses, reigning in credit is all that's needed. Lending back to 3.5x salary, discourage BTL (being done it seems), and remove props such as SMI, HTB, FLS....

Agree ....but you use both terms 'credit' AND 'lending'. What's the difference?

I'd suggest there is a limit to what a person can lend ...... and in some cases, there is a limit to how much 'credit' a person can issue.

........ but some politico -banking people are allowed to 'lend' something they do not own, this totally destroys the honest natural price discovery mechanism, thereby giving false indications of value.

(pretty sure you know this stuff anyway)

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1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

It is a start, hopefully he will now wonder why we need lots more homes.

There’s millions of homes available on rightmove

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

By the way, saying "increasing house prices are always bad" is like saying "weight gain is always bad for you". What about when you are a child, or if you have previously lost a lot of weight through illness?

The HPI we have had is a symptom of State interference and has been very bad for society, but that doesn't mean that shifts in house prices are by definition bad.

When is it good? The analogy with weight gain doesn't necessarily hold. Very low prices that don't rise would be a problem for builders, but that itself is only much of an issue if you're daft enough to keep population growth going and actually need to build houses.

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1 hour ago, cnick said:

Agree ....but you use both terms 'credit' AND 'lending'. What's the difference?

I'd suggest there is a limit to what a person can  ̶l̶e̶n̶d̶  borrow...... and in some cases, there is a limit to how much 'credit' a  ̶p̶e̶r̶s̶o̶n̶  lender can issue.

........ but some politico -banking people are allowed to 'lend' something they do not own, this totally destroys the honest natural price discovery mechanism, thereby giving false indications of value.

(pretty sure you know this stuff anyway)

Corrected for you.;)

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42 minutes ago, thewig said:

There’s millions of homes available on rightmove

Are there really?  If they have people in them and they want to buy another house then they are not really adding to supply.

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17 minutes ago, winkie said:

Corrected for you.;)

OK, but you & I are not allowed to lend stuff we don't own, can we? ...... mind you if I were a banker, I could lend you stuff I did not own ..... then you could lend it to a borrower and that borrower would, in good faith, think he was borrowing your stuff.

Greshams 'law' ....good vs bad money.....??

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21 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Are there really?  If they have people in them and they want to buy another house then they are not really adding to supply.

Empty ones, whilst not the majority, don't appear particularly uncommon either.

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35 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Are there really?  If they have people in them and they want to buy another house then they are not really adding to supply.

Applying the same logic to the demand side, I don’t see thousands of homeless in every town in England so where’s the demand? 

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17 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Empty ones, whilst not the majority, don't appear particularly uncommon either.

I've tried finding a way to measure how many "empty" properties there are out there at the minute, to try and find some empirical data around the whole "supply and demand" story peddled by most VI's.

Best way I've found so far using tools readily available is via Zoopla they have a chain-free advanced filter which is interesting. If I select London as the area and use that filter, there are currently 10,000+ chain-free homes available for sale in London. Looking at just houses the figure is 7,307. I know these aren't "empty" but there are many, many homes available which in the main don't require the fulfilment of the chain/property ladder at other levels.

Not overly scientific, but at least some evidence towards debunking the "supply and demand" argument.

Also just noticed, that there is another filter "price reduced" which currently shows 8,512 properties have been reduced in London.

Edited by Smiley George

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5 minutes ago, thewig said:

Applying the same logic to the demand side, I don’t see thousands of homeless in every town in England so where’s the demand? 

People living at home with their parents until the 40s, housing sharing etc.

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5 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

People living at home with their parents until the 40s, housing sharing etc.

Boomers rattling around in family homes, DEBTjunkies hoovering up all the stock  etc

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Just now, thewig said:

Boomers rattling around in family homes, DEBTjunkies hoovering up all the stock  etc

Debt junkies normally rent to others so don't reduce the amount of stock, just exploit the lack of stock.

Both my widowed grandparents lived in family homes in the 70s -90s and housing was affordable then, so I am not sure this is a new phenomena.

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5 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Debt junkies normally rent to others so don't reduce the amount of stock, just exploit the lack of stock.

Both my widowed grandparents lived in family homes in the 70s -90s and housing was affordable then, so I am not sure this is a new phenomena.

Point taken on the DEBTjunkie scumbags. 

 

The boomers hogging empty houses though is the direct counter point to the house sharing young feckless and sofa surfing avocado eating scumbags. It’s misallocation of bedrooms basically but it isn’t a housing shortage.

 

then you have the thousands/millions of empty homes, which may or may not outnumber the number of homeless people 

 

Edited by thewig

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2 minutes ago, thewig said:

Point taken on the DEBTjunkie scumbags. 

 

The boomers hogging empty houses though is the direct counter point to the house sharing young feckless and sofa surfing avocado eating scumbags. It’s misallocation of bedrooms basically but it isn’t a housing shortage.

 

then you have the thousands/millions of empty homes, which may or may not outnumber the number of homeless people 

 

Well I disagree with both the avocado meme and the misallocation of bedrooms meme.

Are there really thousands of homes empty in desirable places?   I used to think a home near me was empty but, it isn't, the owner is just a bit strange and doesn't mind sleeping with broken windows for many years. 

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3 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Well I disagree with both the avocado meme and the misallocation of bedrooms meme.

Are there really thousands of homes empty in desirable places?   I used to think a home near me was empty but, it isn't, the owner is just a bit strange and doesn't mind sleeping with broken windows for many years. 

That was kind of my point we don't know, if we're going to point to the unquantifiable demand side - sofa surfing workshy living at home flat sharing feckless young etc - then we have to also point to the unquantifiable supply side - individual boomers hogging massive family homes and the vast number of entirely empty homes

 

Its probably in the interests of the landowning establishment to pump the narrative that the demand side massively exceeds the supply side "supply and demand innit bruv" in every town in england but without seeing thousands of homeless people on every street in england how can we verify this is true?

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, thewig said:

That was kind of my point we don't know, if we're going to point to the unquantifiable demand side - sofa surfing workshy living at home flat sharing feckless young etc - then we have to also point to the unquantifiable supply side - individual boomers hogging massive family homes and the vast number of entirely empty homes

 

Its probably in the interests of the landowning establishment to pump the narrative that the demand side massively exceeds the supply side "supply and demand innit bruv" in every town in england but without seeing thousands of homeless people on every street in england how can we verify this is true?

 

 

 

I would say that the average age of house sharers shows that there is a shortage.

(Assuming of course this can be proved).

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Just now, iamnumerate said:

I would say that the average age of house sharers shows that there is a shortage.

(Assuming of course this can be proved).

 

you're focusing on the demand side in complete isolation.. 

 

to directly balance that point what about the average age and number of occupants in a five bed house for starters, do we have access to that sort of information? 

 

we're so deeply programmed with the ridiculous "supply and demand" MEME that its easy to forget there might actually be a shtload of supply we're ignoring

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I would say that the average age of house sharers shows that there is a shortage.

(Assuming of course this can be proved).

The average age of house sharers is probably increasing. Does this show there is a shortage? No, it shows that prices are too high. This could be explained either by excess credit or a shortage. So is there a shortage?

I would say no, based on stats and what is happening with rents. re stats, there have never been more dwellings per person, judging by the stats collected by DCLG going back to the 1950s, notwithstanding recent immigration.

Re rents, look at the time path of rents compared to that of prices. Rents are static e.g. over the last 15 years whilst prices have gone up. If the price increase was down to a "physical shortage", it would be reflected in increasing rents too.

Why is there excess credit? Reregulation of finance since the 70s and government interference to prop up HPI. For example, BTL mortgages did not used to exist. Their introduction has greatly extended the amount of credit available in principle to one person, and (I imagine) has created highly leveraged BTL portfolios. Government intervention - after the crisis in 2008 stricter lending criteria we counterbalanced by government equity loans, help to buy etc., plus BoE intervening via QE to keep interest rates at zero. The government is now the subprime lender.

If there is a shortage, where are the data supporting that?

 

 

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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