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gruffydd

Big crash in HPI in NI - have noticed property people I know getting a bit nervy these last 2 weeks.

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15 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Not happening around me. Some scary prices being offered. I had a few estate agents around to value my house with a view to STR. Pinch of salt time but all said nice houses in my area are going 20%+ over asking. Many being bought by cash buyers. They all said it difficult to set asking prices, some house going well over asking and some sitting. But when there's interest, there's a lot of interest. 

 

I think we're still in a mini bubble. Nationwide are a small player. Their figures will be volatile. 

 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Not happening around me. Some scary prices being offered. I had a few estate agents around to value my house with a view to STR. Pinch of salt time but all said nice houses in my area are going 20%+ over asking. Many being bought by cash buyers.

I don't doubt this - I'd be interested to know where all these cash buyers are getting their money.

I'd guess it's from inheritance, which in turn comes from profits made on house price rises over the last 25 years or so. I guess BT9 will just be a little world of it's own where all the money piles in.

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21 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I don't doubt this - I'd be interested to know where all these cash buyers are getting their money.

I'd guess it's from inheritance, which in turn comes from profits made on house price rises over the last 25 years or so. I guess BT9 will just be a little world of it's own where all the money piles in.

There's a certain age group with plenty of money. I don't know what they've been cashing in but the money is there. I had a builder in doing some work last week. The conversation went to building work picking up. He said he was working on a small semi near me. Bought for 280k cash, 100k spent on it. It's a gift for the person's child in their 20s. A friend just spent 100k cash on a car. There's money about. If you're a professional (law, accountancy, medicine) in your 50s, you'll have to have made some seriously bad money moves not to be doing well now. 

If you're under 40. You're screwed. 

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I get there sense there's a slowdown outside Belfast, speaking to the handful of people I know in property in the north (construction and sales) - Belfast is mental, in middle class neighbourhoods at least, and I wonder whether air b'n'b has something to do with it - was speaking to a big NI mortgage broker the other day and said BTL was moving across to air b'n'b - big changes in Belfast. 

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Slowdown in Wales in the figures too although I would imagine a relatively minor lender here too - but would say bubble here even bigger than NI at the mo - prices seem to have gone up 20% over the last year, at least where I live. 

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I would say one of the big issues with NI is to the south you have an economy out of sync with the Eurozone but with Eurozone IRs... so they have a massively unstable economy - they are more in line with the USA, in terms of economic cycles, yet have IRs set according to the cycles in mainland europe... so the crack-up booms (and busts) influence NI's housing market, too. A crazy world!

 

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Having been actively searching since Easter nice bits of Belfast have gone a bit bananas. So much so, we opted to by a decent house near where we currently are a few miles out of town. Even then, the price moved quickly and above the EA's 'offers around' figure which surprised me. I feel that I might have paid about 10% over value, but it's a house that would be very difficult to repeat.

If anyone is unsure of just how much money is about go and have a look at the construction work taking place in Belfast. Oh and the number of expensive cars floating about.

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47 minutes ago, The_Equalizer said:

Having been actively searching since Easter nice bits of Belfast have gone a bit bananas. So much so, we opted to by a decent house near where we currently are a few miles out of town. Even then, the price moved quickly and above the EA's 'offers around' figure which surprised me. I feel that I might have paid about 10% over value, but it's a house that would be very difficult to repeat.

If anyone is unsure of just how much money is about go and have a look at the construction work taking place in Belfast. Oh and the number of expensive cars floating about.

Most of the car are on tap but I agree. There's credit rolling around that's for sure. I'm almost set on putting my house on the market and cashing out. I can't see this mini bubble lasting for years but I could be wrong. I'm happy to rent for a while and see what happens.

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3 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Most of the car are on tap but I agree. There's credit rolling around that's for sure. I'm almost set on putting my house on the market and cashing out. I can't see this mini bubble lasting for years but I could be wrong. I'm happy to rent for a while and see what happens.

It's a bit horses for courses. I dodged the previous crash and the house I've gone sale agreed on will leave me mortgage free. You could be well be right. The market has a feel of say 2005. There are plently of younger buyers for who 2007 is just something in a text book.

I've sat on my hands for so long and the house is spot on for my family so, basically, there was no excuse. I've found that I'm not very good a timing markets and now judge situations based with what's in front of me. Then again, the sale could all fall in a heap!

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7 minutes ago, The_Equalizer said:

It's a bit horses for courses. I dodged the previous crash and the house I've gone sale agreed on will leave me mortgage free. You could be well be right. The market has a feel of say 2005. There are plently of younger buyers for who 2007 is just something in a text book.

I've sat on my hands for so long and the house is spot on for my family so, basically, there was no excuse. I've found that I'm not very good a timing markets and now judge situations based with what's in front of me. Then again, the sale could all fall in a heap!

Yep it's credit. While the banks offer 5 times joint income at sub 3% people will take it. 

You have to do what works for you. 

 

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2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

There's a certain age group with plenty of money. I don't know what they've been cashing in but the money is there. I had a builder in doing some work last week. The conversation went to building work picking up. He said he was working on a small semi near me. Bought for 280k cash, 100k spent on it. It's a gift for the person's child in their 20s. A friend just spent 100k cash on a car. There's money about. If you're a professional (law, accountancy, medicine) in your 50s, you'll have to have made some seriously bad money moves not to be doing well now. 

If you're under 40. You're screwed. 

Yeah, I get the impression there's a big divide with the over 50's in well paying professions, a mixture of:

- big pensions and lump sums upon retiring which future generations will not get

- money made from selling other houses

- a 25+ of living on a good wage when the cost of living was much smaller than it is now

- inheritance from their own parents

I know that there is folk from this demographic who have a few hundred K sitting around. But if you are even a hard-working person in a decent job, trying to make it 'from scratch' without any bank-of-mum-and-dad to give you a boost of 100K+, you just can't compete with that.

I'm starting to realize why so many people I know who are late 20's/early 30's and never found a 'career' seem to have just retreated back to eternal adolescence, living in their parents house and just doing some work here and there to pay for beer money. They don't stand a chance of actually building a life outside of landing a council house.

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1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

I get there sense there's a slowdown outside Belfast, speaking to the handful of people I know in property in the north (construction and sales) - Belfast is mental, in middle class neighbourhoods at least, and I wonder whether air b'n'b has something to do with it - was speaking to a big NI mortgage broker the other day and said BTL was moving across to air b'n'b - big changes in Belfast. 

That would explain some of the apartments that I've seen going for silly money - they're being bought to be run as bnb's, with the return that gets you.

Although having said that I have heard of some blocks trying to ban airbnb's from being run in them, because of the anti social behavior that can result from it.

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8 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm starting to realize why so many people I know who are late 20's/early 30's and never found a 'career' seem to have just retreated back to eternal adolescence, living in their parents house and just doing some work here and there to pay for beer money. They don't stand a chance of actually building a life outside of landing a council house.

There are houses available at sensible money. I currently live in what would be considered not the nicest part of NI and the house isn't much to look at. However, it's 100m2 with three bed and two receptions, driveway for two cars and a small rear garden. I can get a train and be in Belfast in 15 minutes and you can drive it (even in rush hour) in about the same. I think it's current value is £85K. You can get one that needs work for about £65K. 

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1 minute ago, The_Equalizer said:

There are houses available at sensible money. I currently live in what would be considered not the nicest part of NI and the house isn't much to look at. However, it's 100m2 with three bed and two receptions, driveway for two cars and a small rear garden. I can get a train and be in Belfast in 15 minutes and you can drive it (even in rush hour) in about the same. I think it's current value is £85K. You can get one that needs work for about £65K. 

Care to say what area it's in? If I could get to botanic station in 15/20 minutes then it would be somewhere I'd consider.

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4 minutes ago, The_Equalizer said:

There are houses available at sensible money. I currently live in what would be considered not the nicest part of NI and the house isn't much to look at. However, it's 100m2 with three bed and two receptions, driveway for two cars and a small rear garden. I can get a train and be in Belfast in 15 minutes and you can drive it (even in rush hour) in about the same. I think it's current value is £85K. You can get one that needs work for about £65K. 

Newtownabbey I'm guessing? 

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1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Care to say what area it's in? If I could get to botanic station in 15/20 minutes then it would be somewhere I'd consider.

Whiteabbey. You'd probably find places in Greenisland and possibly Carrick too (although the latter takes a bit longer to get into Belfast from). The annual train ticket is £500/year and gives you free travel across the whole of the NI network (buses and trains) at weekends. As I said, they won't be the prettiest houses, but there are bits that aren't one side or the other if you get my drift.

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Just now, The_Equalizer said:

Whiteabbey. You'd probably find places in Greenisland and possibly Carrick too (although the latter takes a bit longer to get into Belfast from). The annual train ticket is £500/year and gives you free travel across the whole of the NI network (buses and trains) at weekends. As I said, they won't be the prettiest houses, but there are bits that aren't one side or the other if you get my drift.

Yes this is what I'd be worried about.

That £500 a year is reasonable; you probably save a bit on your rates bill to by not living in Belfast.

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Just now, JoeDavola said:

Yes this is what I'd be worried about.

That £500 a year is reasonable; you probably save a bit on your rates bill to by not living in Belfast.

I can speak from experience that I that wife and I have never had any problems. The rates bill is £720/year. It's the right time of year to work out which bits are fine and the other bits that might be of less interest.

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1 minute ago, The_Equalizer said:

I can speak from experience that I that wife and I have never had any problems. The rates bill is £720/year. It's the right time of year to work out which bits are fine and the other bits that might be of less interest.

Ha! Very true!

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4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

A quick search throws this up; around the corner from the train station - though I'd have assumed this was a council estate and possibly dodgy:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/newtownabbey/semi-detached-type/princes+crescent/property/DYP8531449?sort=Date+Added&status[]=For+Sale&sector[]=Residential&offset=0&limit=10&area[]=71

The station end of Fernagh, Yres Park and Station Road are fine. Bits the other side of the railway would be okay too. As I said, they are ugly things, but for what you get in terms of room and getting into town I think they're a bit of a bargain.

Edited by The_Equalizer

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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