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London house prices have fallen for the 10th month in a row.

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In another sign of economic weakness, Rightmove reports that asking prices in the capital are down 0.9% compared with May, and are 1.0% lower than a year ago. That’s the 10th monthly fall in a row, as the once-hot London property market continues to cool.

London is particularly vulnerable to the threat of a ‘hard Brexit’, as tens of thousands of financial jobs could be lost. Guardian 9:14

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No one wants to admit the prices are insane, IRs are at zero and the whole mess has been caused by the bankers and greedy politicians.

Can fix the problem to you identify it.

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Who can afford £1.5 million for a family home in an ok suburb that would have cost £200k 20 years ago? Not that many people earning £100k per annum and even then it is 7.5 x household income, assuming two parents earning that much.

I imagine the London market is based on boomers with loads of equity, bomad and young bankers/lawyers who think £1.5 million is a bargain way to show off their wealth.

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33 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Who can afford £1.5 million for a family home in an ok suburb that would have cost £200k 20 years ago? Not that many people earning £100k per annum and even then it is 7.5 x household income, assuming two parents earning that much.

I imagine the London market is based on boomers with loads of equity, bomad and young bankers/lawyers who think £1.5 million is a bargain way to show off their wealth.

Boomers

Money Laundering

Speculators

BTLers

 

People who need houses to live in have little choice.

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21 minutes ago, Freki said:

 three-bedroom flat in Ealing that has been on the market since August 2016, for £1.2m (RightMove )

 

its not even a modern apartment with a gym and pool, just half of a house!

 

in Ealing!!

 

the world has gone mad!

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11 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

 three-bedroom flat in Ealing that has been on the market since August 2016, for £1.2m (RightMove )

 

its not even a modern apartment with a gym and pool, just half of a house!

 

in Ealing!!

 

the world has gone mad!

I was in Ealing last weekend for the first time in over 20 years. Loads of charity shops, independent grocers and pigeon shit.

 

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On 18/06/2018 at 18:28, FabulousSophie said:

LSL Acadata for May came out today.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/acadataHousePrices.php

Index 
292.6
Average House Price 
£305,654
Monthly Change 
0.0%

Annual Change 
2.2%

You missed out:

Transactions down by 6% year-to-date 

But as every post of yours is a reminder that house prices are rising or are about to rise, I expect nothing more. 

As trolls go, you're not bad. 

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6 hours ago, Ah-so said:

You missed out:

Transactions down by 6% year-to-date 

But as every post of yours is a reminder that house prices are rising or are about to rise, I expect nothing more. 

As trolls go, you're not bad. 

You know what they say about assuming.

Strange that I don't own property and desperately want to buy, probably far more so than you, who doesn't seem really that bothered about buying a house, as shown by your willingness to wait decades or even possibly centuries. Some people here, rather than actually wanting to buy a house, seem to have more of an academic interest in the minutiae of house prices, and a mental obsession about being proven right about their numerical theories, to the extent they try to drive out anyone who challenges or tests their theories. I am not one of those. I just want house prices to collapse as soon as possible, and to know when sellers are most amenable to good discounts, so I can get the best value for my money. 

Plus, I would like to have some definitive reassurance that prices are not going be forced up again by the authorities, which would be terrible for my plans to buy somewhere good. But despite all the tediously immature rhetoric and name calling in this sometimes very nasty and unwelcoming playground environment, nobody seems able to provide that simple guarantee.

Edited by FabulousSophie

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On 18/06/2018 at 10:29, Freki said:

Ha....plus million magic money, they can put whatever value on it that they like, maybe ready, maybe able, certainly not willing at that price........how about buying a fabulous home of value with £500k in the bank?;)

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47 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

You know what they say about assuming.

Strange that I don't own property and desperately want to buy, probably far more so than you, who doesn't seem really that bothered about buying a house, as shown by your willingness to wait decades or even possibly centuries. Some people here, rather than actually wanting to buy a house, seem to have more of an academic obsession with house prices, and being proven right about their house price theories. I am not one of those. I just want house prices to collapse as soon as possible, and to know when the sellers are most amenable to discounts, so I can get the best value for my money. 

Plus, I would like to know definitively from someone here that prices will not be forced up again by the authorities, which would be terrible for me. But despite all the immature rhetoric and name calling in this often very nasty and unwelcoming playground environment, nobody seems able to provide that simple guarantee.

Well FS I can’t provide that guarantee but...STR in 2007 and last July, last one a £1 million+ home and we have owned our own place since 86, seen lots of cycles and never BTL’d

So no expert but pretty good at timing unlike most of my boomer cohort. 

The rules around what you can get as a mortgage are incredibly tight now just done it for the place we have just bought. I have good income, credit history and track record as above. This more than anything will put a brake on the market 

The government has no money fairly obvious with the row over the NHS commitment. So any meaningful intervention not possible and help to buy etc never volume anyway

The younger cohorts for the first time ever are larger than us greedy boomers,  this will feed through into individual actions and wider policy very quickly. Incomes are squeezed not all the governments fault globalisation and the rise of newer economies inexorable and hence competition. Gig working, insecure careers coupled with AI and robotics will devastate working structures right into the white collar middle class professions. 

But house prices won’t collapse they will reduce - shout hard enough you can already get 10-15% reductions these will become 20-30% and probably settle around  40% - however areas around schools, near the tube let’s say or in decent towns are by definition desirable to think they will reduce I would say is a bit unlikely 

All the above without the uncertainty of Brexit

Sellers in any negotiation are open to discount at any point - the key is how to get it. If you are in a business  that has a sales function you could do a lot worse than reach out to your Sales Director and ask for a days coaching with their team on this aspect of sales. We love flattery on that level and seriously it could be the best day you have spent in terms of financial gains.

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31 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Well FS I can’t provide that guarantee but...STR in 2007 and last July, last one a £1 million+ home and we have owned our own place since 86, seen lots of cycles and never BTL’d

So no expert but pretty good at timing unlike most of my boomer cohort. 

The rules around what you can get as a mortgage are incredibly tight now just done it for the place we have just bought. I have good income, credit history and track record as above. This more than anything will put a brake on the market 

The government has no money fairly obvious with the row over the NHS commitment. So any meaningful intervention not possible and help to buy etc never volume anyway

The younger cohorts for the first time ever are larger than us greedy boomers,  this will feed through into individual actions and wider policy very quickly. Incomes are squeezed not all the governments fault globalisation and the rise of newer economies inexorable and hence competition. Gig working, insecure careers coupled with AI and robotics will devastate working structures right into the white collar middle class professions. 

But house prices won’t collapse they will reduce - shout hard enough you can already get 10-15% reductions these will become 20-30% and probably settle around  40% - however areas around schools, near the tube let’s say or in decent towns are by definition desirable to think they will reduce I would say is a bit unlikely 

All the above without the uncertainty of Brexit

Sellers in any negotiation are open to discount at any point - the key is how to get it. If you are in a business  that has a sales function you could do a lot worse than reach out to your Sales Director and ask for a days coaching with their team on this aspect of sales. We love flattery on that level and seriously it could be the best day you have spent in terms of financial gains.

I hear everything you say, but I am frightened that there is always the possibility of a blind side, such as renewed rampant wage inflation that pushes prices much higher, or something else that the government could do that people do not see coming. Nissim Nicholas Taleb was probably also accused of being a troll when he challenged widespread prevailing assumptions before the GFC. I agree with you that prices could probably fall as much as 30-40%, but it is always healthy to have one's assumptions tested or even to test them yourself, something that a few people here seem to believe is tantamount to murder. There are no certainties about the future.

Yes, part of my problem is a fear of negotiating, and a belief that if I try to negotiate hard on a house that I really like in today's market environment, I will lose it. And also a fear that prices could then really collapse after I have bought.

Edited by FabulousSophie

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7 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

I hear everything you say, but I am frightened that there is always the possibility of a blind side, such as renewed rampant wage inflation that pushes prices much higher, or something else that the government could do that people do not see coming. Nissim Nicholas Taleb was probably also accused of being a troll when he challenged widespread prevailing assumptions before the GFC. I agree with you that prices could probably fall as much as 30-40%, but it is always healthy to have one's assumptions tested or even to test them yourself, something that a few people here seem to believe is tantamount to murder.

Yes, part of my problem is a fear of negotiating, and a belief that if I try to negotiate hard on a house that I really like in today's market environment, I will lose it. And also a fear that prices could then really collapse after I have bought. There are no certainties about the future.

 

Per earlier post, you’re expecting people here to give a guarantees that prices won’t be forced up again by authorities... how could anyone?

I assume you’re not in a position to buy something you want currently, so until you are, why worry about it? Just crack on with your life, save, and when you’re in a position to buy, do it.

Now is a great time to be negotiating as prices are falling especially in London. Find the desperate seller. 

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Big standard EAs and also everyday property sellers don't seem the kind of people open to negotiation. Easy to cause offense. Mebbe I'm wrong dunno.

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15 minutes ago, Jcuk89 said:

 

Per earlier post, you’re expecting people here to give a guarantees that prices won’t be forced up again by authorities... how could anyone?

When people have suggested here that prices could be forced up again by the market or government in some way, known or otherwise, some people here attack them viciously as "trolls", like the Spanish inquisition trying to burn them at the stake for daring to question the Church. The last thing I want is for prices to go up, and I believe they will fall, but it is not trolling to challenge or test my assumptions. Some people here probably assumed prices would collapse a decade or more ago, and at the time they probably dismissed anyone who challenged that assumption.

Edited by FabulousSophie

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1 hour ago, FabulousSophie said:

You know what they say about assuming.

Strange that I don't own property and desperately want to buy, probably far more so than you, who doesn't seem really that bothered about buying a house, as shown by your willingness to wait decades or even possibly centuries. Some people here, rather than actually wanting to buy a house, seem to have more of an academic interest in the minutiae of house prices, and a mental obsession about being proven right about their numerical theories, to the extent they try to drive out anyone who challenges or tests their theories. I am not one of those. I just want house prices to collapse as soon as possible, and to know when sellers are most amenable to good discounts, so I can get the best value for my money. 

Plus, I would like to have some definitive reassurance that prices are not going be forced up again by the authorities, which would be terrible for my plans to buy somewhere good. But despite all the tediously immature rhetoric and name calling in this sometimes very nasty and unwelcoming playground environment, nobody seems able to provide that simple guarantee.

You seem to be confusing me with someone else, as I  own a property and have done for over a decade. 

But no one can offer you any guarantees - you knew that full well. But you love to point out any signs that house prices are rising. 

This is why I have you down as a slightly more sophisticate troll using the following technique:

1. Make systems supporting the cause, but in an echo chamber way - establish credentials but without contributing to the debate. 

2. Slip in bits of news or comment to undermine the argument or take threads off topic

 

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13 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Big standard EAs and also everyday property sellers don't seem the kind of people open to negotiation. Easy to cause offense. Mebbe I'm wrong dunno.

That is the impression I get in the current fantasy market, which is why I am holding off even viewing places I like the look of.

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4 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

You seem to be confusing me with someone else, as I  own a property and have done for over a decade. 

But no one can offer you any guarantees - you knew that full well. But you love to point out any signs that house prices are rising. 

This is why I have you down as a slightly more sophisticate troll using the following technique:

1. Make systems supporting the cause, but in an echo chamber way - establish credentials but without contributing to the debate. 

2. Slip in bits of news or comment to undermine the argument or take threads off topic

 

If you own a property and I do not (but would like to), I have far far more of an interest in prices falling than you. So please refrain from calling me a troll. It is a completely twisted accusation.

Edited by FabulousSophie

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14 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

I hear everything you say, but I am frightened that there is always the possibility of a blind side, such as renewed rampant wage inflation that pushes prices much higher, or something else that the government could do that people do not see coming. Nissim Nicholas Taleb was probably also accused of being a troll when he challenged widespread prevailing assumptions before the GFC. I agree with you that prices could probably fall as much as 30-40%, but it is always healthy to have one's assumptions tested or even to test them yourself, something that a few people here seem to believe is tantamount to murder. There are no certainties about the future.

Yes, part of my problem is a fear of negotiating, and a belief that if I try to negotiate hard on a house that I really like in today's market environment, I will lose it. And also a fear that prices could then really collapse after I have bought.

My sold to rent intervals have informed my thinking - rent is so high that the interest element of a mortgage I view as ‘rent’ then of course the rest is like saving

Totally understand the negotiating feeling. Hence my suggestion to mix it with us sales dogs - we absolutely adore helping people get better deals - believe me we don’t bite 😉

Final point it’s just a thing a house, it’s not love, courage, happiness or a family. There is always another one every single time 

Prices might collapse but your not a speculator so who cares ? They will revert they always do 

Wage inflation will be totally non existent -AI,Robotics, online shopping, globalisation and higher taxes will see to that 

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2 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

That is the impression I get in the current fantasy market, which is why I am holding off even viewing places I like the look of.

Good luck expanding your portfolio. Are you finding that PRA SS13/16 is having much of an impact on your ability to pull equity out of the existing properties when you refinance?

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18 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Big standard EAs and also everyday property sellers don't seem the kind of people open to negotiation. Easy to cause offense. Mebbe I'm wrong dunno.

Haven’t found that Si1 but I am an experienced B2B Sales Director, it’s not just a question on barking a lower no at them ( not saying you would 👍)

As per my reply to @FabulousSophie companies don’t spend billions on sales training and its dark cousin procurement training because it doesn’t Work 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

If you own a property and I do not but would like to, I have far far more of an interest in prices falling than you. So please refrain from calling me a troll. It is a completely twisted accusation.

+1 Don’t worry FS some funny old fruits on here 

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27 minutes ago, Jcuk89 said:

 

Per earlier post, you’re expecting people here to give a guarantees that prices won’t be forced up again by authorities... how could anyone?

I assume you’re not in a position to buy something you want currently, so until you are, why worry about it? Just crack on with your life, save, and when you’re in a position to buy, do it.

Now is a great time to be negotiating as prices are falling especially in London. Find the desperate seller. 

Exactly 👍😎

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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