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wish I could afford one

Who cares about what happens to UK house prices

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Back in 2007 I joined HPC as my Plan A was to buy a family home yet a decent job didn't afford me that.  HPC helped me understand why that was.  While waiting for normality to return to the housing market I focused on increasing earnings and quality of life.  I saved the difference that those two activities gave.  As cash appeared I then started to learn how to DIY invest that.  Plan A remained but after a short time a Plan B started to form which just might give us another option.  That Plan B is these days called FIRE.

While house prices kept being silly, 'free' money kept being given away to those that wanted it and government threw more props at it Plan B became more attractive by the week.  Plan B is now it.  I no longer care what happens to UK house prices.  I've just resigned from my work (link to why now was the right time as I know some HPC'ers have been previously interested in my journey) and will soon settle on the Mediterranean.  There I can buy a detached home with a pool and a sea view for less than the price of a sh*t flat in East London.  I also now have enough wealth to never work again.  Earning more, quality of life focus vs consumerism and a long term investment return of 6.8% gives one that.

I'd like to thank the VI's for keeping house prices silly.  It forced me to think differently and differently is a lot better than my original aspirations back in 2007. 

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All the best for the future to you and yours in your new affordable home of choice.......for me I have always been buying since joining until recently.....have always thought it has not been a free housing market, it has been manipulated to see that assets and rents have risen higher than working wages, meaning work does not pay the living costs for a growing number of people in the area where they work in........can understand why working one place and living in another is a growing trend.......create the policies, get the behaviours.😉

 

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Good luck.

I have Normandy on my radar, but keep getting nagged into looking at Portugal as well.

I know how you feel, I look on this site most days hoping for that one concrete bit of evidence that the property crash is 100% on it's way, that would be enough for me just knowing, the hope that things will get better., but I never see that one magical post. There is no way I am buying in the UK as things stand, I am not going to throw my life way for a dump and life of slavery.

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I expect I will move to Spain but timing is the question....I have elderly parents I am reluctant to leave at the mo...and I am earning and saving and watching.

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1 hour ago, inbruges said:

Good luck.

I have Normandy on my radar, but keep getting nagged into looking at Portugal as well.

I know how you feel, I look on this site most days hoping for that one concrete bit of evidence that the property crash is 100% on it's way, that would be enough for me just knowing, the hope that things will get better., but I never see that one magical post. There is no way I am buying in the UK as things stand, I am not going to throw my life way for a dump and life of slavery.

Portugal didn't appeal to us but I can understand why people would like it.  Additionally, the non habitual residents scheme could make it doubly attractive for some.

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

I expect I will move to Spain but timing is the question....I have elderly parents I am reluctant to leave at the mo...and I am earning and saving and watching.

We want to be in the EU and registered before the current Brexit date of 29 March 2019.  For us that means we'll leave the UK in the Autumn this year.  I don't trust politicians as far as I can throw them so aren't prepared to trust the withdrawal agreement date of 31 December 2020 let alone after that.  Do you have a date in mind?

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10 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

We want to be in the EU and registered before the current Brexit date of 29 March 2019.  For us that means we'll leave the UK in the Autumn this year.  I don't trust politicians as far as I can throw them so aren't prepared to trust the withdrawal agreement date of 31 December 2020 let alone after that.  Do you have a date in mind?

No date in mind but not expecting Spanish authorities to place any barriers in the way of Brits wanting to live in Spain other than few forms...may be wrong. I doubt will move before end of 2019. Best of luck.

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1 minute ago, Wayward said:

No date in mind but not expecting Spanish authorities to place any barriers in the way of Brits wanting to live in Spain other than few forms...may be wrong. I doubt will move before end of 2019. Best of luck.

If the withdrawal agreement sticks then end 2019 should make the move easier.  Good luck with it.

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Well done on completing the exit that you started back in 2007. Ironic that the system that wanted to keep you inside actually caused you to stay out and beat it.

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Congratulations! Still plugging away on my journey here but getting more frustrated with life in the UK and I'm still probably 10 years away from my ideal FIRE amount at current savings rate. The thought of 10 more years in my current role makes me feel nauseous so I may settle for a less than ideal figure sooner than that and choose a little more frugal lifestyle in a cheaper location. For the moment, head down, save hard.

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4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Congratulations! Still plugging away on my journey here but getting more frustrated with life in the UK and I'm still probably 10 years away from my ideal FIRE amount at current savings rate. The thought of 10 more years in my current role makes me feel nauseous so I may settle for a less than ideal figure sooner than that and choose a little more frugal lifestyle in a cheaper location. For the moment, head down, save hard.

I went from nothing to financial independence in a bit under 9 years.  It'll be a little under 11 years by the time I actually FIRE.  Are you looking for a big number, a very conservative draw down rate or are you just not saving enough.  Care to share a bit more detail?

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1 hour ago, guest_northshore said:

Well done and thanks for the blog. I dip into it regularly for thoughts, links, comment discussions.

 

21 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

******ing hell! Well done, you deserve it! Enjoy your hard earned wealth (and the sun!).

Thanks both.

Glad the blog brings you some value gn.  It's a great supportive community with a lot of wisdom that has developed over the years.

Why the expletive fru-gal?

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11 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

 

Thanks both.

Glad the blog brings you some value gn.  It's a great supportive community with a lot of wisdom that has developed over the years.

Why the expletive fru-gal?

Just wanted to see if it would get blanked out 🤣...seriously though, I really envy you. Well done.

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2 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Just wanted to see if it would get blanked out 🤣...seriously though, I really envy you. Well done.

🤣 Of course it will on this site.

When I started I didn't know if it would work and of course it could all go pear shaped in the future but so far so good.  That said what I've done is no secret as I've been very transparent throughout my journey.  A lot of posts on my strategy on this forum over the years, 489 blog posts since 2009 and a fairly short book that pieced everything together into a cohesive approach.  The comments and emails I've had over the years has made that transparency so worthwhile.  It's helped me learn while also giving some value to others.  A win win.

Do you have a wealth building strategy currently in play?

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2 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

I went from nothing to financial independence in a bit under 9 years.  It'll be a little under 11 years by the time I actually FIRE.  Are you looking for a big number, a very conservative draw down rate or are you just not saving enough.  Care to share a bit more detail?

was fear the main driver though ?  i know fear was mine when i used to save in my 20`s. 

can`t say i even want to buy anything anymore so i am not a consumer per se.  

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1 minute ago, longgone said:

was fear the main driver though ?  i know fear was mine when i used to save in my 20`s. 

can`t say i even want to buy anything anymore so i am not a consumer per se.  

In the blog post I linked to I go into it in more detail.  2 things held me between FI and FIRE.  Institutionalisation and fear.  The defining moment was realising I should actually be fearful of not getting an opportunity to experience my fears.

Like you I also now spend very little.  Excluding rent and work costs year to date I'm spending £638 per month.  That's 3.6% more than I was spending in 2015 so my personal inflation rate is less than the commonly published indices as well.  Since the start of 2015 my personal monthly spend on clothes has averaged out at £0.95.  It is possible to have a high quality of life on very little.

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1 hour ago, wish I could afford one said:

I went from nothing to financial independence in a bit under 9 years.  It'll be a little under 11 years by the time I actually FIRE.  Are you looking for a big number, a very conservative draw down rate or are you just not saving enough.  Care to share a bit more detail?

It is hard without giving away a lot of personal detail. What sort of info are you looking for? In general terms, we're starting a family very late and will have the large expenses of children for the next 20+ years. We're also late to the FIRE game because I took career breaks and travelled a lot when I was younger. Nevertheless, I have always saved and have a fair chunk of equity. It is only in the last few years that I have become more serious about FIRE.

The problems:

* Our target area in France is expensive.
* We love skiing and will try to take a ski holiday every year with the children

So House + children + at least one expensive holiday per year makes for a high annual cost of living. Without wanting to go into more figures in public just now, the target pot is high and at current rate of saving even with optimistic ROI, it'll take 10+ more years. And I'm not all that optimistic about the next 10 years. I think, and no disrespect, you've ridden a nice wave from the lows of 2008 up till this point, so your savings back in those early years really counted for a lot. I don't expect this trend to continue for another 10 years.

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4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

It is hard without giving away a lot of personal detail. What sort of info are you looking for? In general terms, we're starting a family very late and will have the large expenses of children for the next 20+ years. We're also late to the FIRE game because I took career breaks and travelled a lot when I was younger. Nevertheless, I have always saved and have a fair chunk of equity. It is only in the last few years that I have become more serious about FIRE.

The problems:

* Our target area in France is expensive.
* We love skiing and will try to take a ski holiday every year with the children

So House + children + at least one expensive holiday per year makes for a high annual cost of living. Without wanting to go into more figures in public just now, the target pot is high and at current rate of saving even with optimistic ROI, it'll take 10+ more years. And I'm not all that optimistic about the next 10 years. I think, and no disrespect, you've ridden a nice wave from the lows of 2008 up till this point, so your savings back in those early years really counted for a lot. I don't expect this trend to continue for another 10 years.

Thanks for sharing.  I set myself a target on £1M and I've ended up with a bit of £1.3M but need to buy a home from that.  We also don't spend very much.  From what you say I'm guessing you'll be chasing a lot more than that.

I started investing just before the GFC kicked off.  What I did right was just continue to buy the worst performing asset class all the way through.  That set me up mindset wise for success. 

I agree that at some point we'll have another big crash.  The question is when will it be.  I tried trading and was rubbish at it so now just buy, hold and rebalance.  A quote I once heard that still sticks with me - "it's time in the market not timing the market."

I wish you every success and hope your journey is far faster than you think.  When I originally started out early spreadsheets suggested I'd be at it for 15 or more years.  In the end FI took me a bit under 9 years.  That wasn't investment returns.  I actually underestimated how much I could increase earnings by and how little I really needed to spend for a good quality of life.  

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4 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

Thanks for sharing.  I set myself a target on £1M and I've ended up with a bit of £1.3M but need to buy a home from that.  We also don't spend very much.  From what you say I'm guessing you'll be chasing a lot more than that.

I started investing just before the GFC kicked off.  What I did right was just continue to buy the worst performing asset class all the way through.  That set me up mindset wise for success. 

I agree that at some point we'll have another big crash.  The question is when will it be.  I tried trading and was rubbish at it so now just buy, hold and rebalance.  A quote I once heard that still sticks with me - "it's time in the market not timing the market."

I wish you every success and hope your journey is far faster than you think.  When I originally started out early spreadsheets suggested I'd be at it for 15 or more years.  In the end FI took me a bit under 9 years.  That wasn't investment returns.  I actually underestimated how much I could increase earnings by and how little I really needed to spend for a good quality of life.  

Thank you, that's really appreciated. I'll be aiming for the stretch goal but I am trying to figure out alternatives. One approach is what some blogs seem to call coastFI. I could reach a point where I am FI if we choose a much more modest life and location, and at this point alter my career to something much less stressful (albeit lower income) and "coast" until my target figure is achieved. The merit is I can start to de-stress much sooner, but am then still tied to the "system" for longer.

As for time vs timing, yes agreed. Though I have not got to any sophisticated level though of rebalancing. I buy all world ETFs and from a portfolio view am almost completely in equities. I have property exposure through my own house, but at this point I see no purpose in bonds at all. The yield is pathetic and I don't think is pricing in the true risk. Also, they seem to me to be a bet on interest rates remaining low and I already have exposure to interest rates through my mortgage. Perhaps others feel different, I'd like to hear so.

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8 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

... One approach is what some blogs seem to call coastFI. I could reach a point where I am FI if we choose a much more modest life and location, and at this point alter my career to something much less stressful (albeit lower income) and "coast" until my target figure is achieved. The merit is I can start to de-stress much sooner, but am then still tied to the "system" for longer.

...

I've heard about this concept from a number of people as well.  It didn't appeal to me personally as I just wanted to rip the plaster off so to speak as that then gave me geographic arbitrage as well.  I'm maybe a little unique in that globalisation has seen many of my and Mrs WICAO extended family and friends spread across the globe so we're not so tied to the UK.  FIRE will then also enable to spend more time with them.

One thing I also found which might be of interest.  As soon as I became FI, you might even call it lean FI, the job stress reduced significantly.  A good thing.  In hindsight the negative was that my tolerance for b*llshit also reduced significantly.

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1 hour ago, wish I could afford one said:

In the blog post I linked to I go into it in more detail.  2 things held me between FI and FIRE.  Institutionalisation and fear.  The defining moment was realising I should actually be fearful of not getting an opportunity to experience my fears.

Like you I also now spend very little.  Excluding rent and work costs year to date I'm spending £638 per month.  That's 3.6% more than I was spending in 2015 so my personal inflation rate is less than the commonly published indices as well.  Since the start of 2015 my personal monthly spend on clothes has averaged out at £0.95.  It is possible to have a high quality of life on very little.

It`s good that even though you don`t seek possessions from your hard work and rather see it as a safety net and a big 2 finger salute to the normal mans life i always found people that had some money wanted to show it off. 

i liked the reference to walking through the graveyard though,  i have done this too, you can`t help but look at the ages and wonder how long you are going to get. 

In reality time is the only scarce commodity, money is just a necessity which has been forced upon us with few being able to break away from western rules. 

In the end you are investing in an invented substance to improve your only commodity which is time because of capitalism. 

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2 minutes ago, longgone said:

It`s good that even though you don`t seek possessions from your hard work and rather see it as a safety net and a big 2 finger salute to the normal mans life i always found people that had some money wanted to show it off. 

i liked the reference to walking through the graveyard though,  i have done this too, you can`t help but look at the ages and wonder how long you are going to get. 

In reality time is the only scarce commodity, money is just a necessity which has been forced upon us with few being able to break away from western rules. 

In the end you are investing in an invented substance to improve your only commodity which is time because of capitalism. 

In the circles I've moved over the years  the more 'flashy' people have either been the most indebted and/or those that were the most insecure with themselves. 

I have no flash about me at all.  Maybe a hangover from my very humble beginnings.  In the street you would walk right by me and not even notice me.  I'm the ultimate greyman and I'm very comfortable with that.

Unfortunately, I couldn't find a way to avoid the system so I chose to play the game while touching it as lightly as possible.  I felt if I tried to fight it I'd end up with the bloody nose.

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36 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Thank you, that's really appreciated. I'll be aiming for the stretch goal but I am trying to figure out alternatives. One approach is what some blogs seem to call coastFI. I could reach a point where I am FI if we choose a much more modest life and location, and at this point alter my career to something much less stressful (albeit lower income) and "coast" until my target figure is achieved. The merit is I can start to de-stress much sooner, but am then still tied to the "system" for longer.

As for time vs timing, yes agreed. Though I have not got to any sophisticated level though of rebalancing. I buy all world ETFs and from a portfolio view am almost completely in equities. I have property exposure through my own house, but at this point I see no purpose in bonds at all. The yield is pathetic and I don't think is pricing in the true risk. Also, they seem to me to be a bet on interest rates remaining low and I already have exposure to interest rates through my mortgage. Perhaps others feel different, I'd like to hear so.

Bonds are a safety net if the stock market crashes, money will flow to bonds if this happens? If you buy AA/AAA bonds plus more risky bonds that provide better yields but have a default risk as well as equities you are diversifying your risk away from all equities. What happens in your portfolio if stocks and property crash?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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