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GettingBored

No wonder Rightmove stopped updating the market trends data!

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From what I'm led to believe Rightmove have stopped updating the market trends page on their website (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area.html), the last update was in January. I decided to do some digging and fill in the blanks myself.

For the record, I live in a medium sized town (30k+ residents) that has great transport links to London (rail) and currently has ~300 homes for sale. Houses were selling like hotcakes over a year ago, now it appears they aren't. Also, the price drops are coming thick and fast (found using Property Log).

Anyway, the numbers:

Oct 17 - 79
Nov 17 - 71
Dec 17 - 127
Jan 18 - 32 (last to appear on RM)
Feb 18 - 44
Mar 18 - 11

I know sales numbers are a lot worse in Winter but March is over 80% down on the same month last year! Looking forward to seeing what happens with the Spring numbers, I expect they will creep up but be massively down on last year.

Would be interesting to see if others on here get similar results, I used http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices.html to manually count the sales for the missing months.

Keep the faith everyone.

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Sales in the area I live dropped from over 70 to 30 in January, but even compared to the previous year sales are down by more than 25%.  It's probably even lower sales now.  Asking prices seem to have peaked July 2017.

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11 minutes ago, CanAffordWontPay said:

Population - 18,000 (2011 census), Hampshire with rail links to Waterloo

Mar - 6 (WTF) - Is this lag?

Feb - 25

Jan - 36

Dec - 75

Nov - 58

Oct - 37

 

I've just cross checked my data with houseprices.io, it seems Rightmove has incomplete sales data for March. Regardless of that, the slowdown was happening a long time before March.

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3 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

I've just cross checked my data with houseprices.io, it seems Rightmove has incomplete sales data for March. Regardless of that, the slowdown was happening a long time before March.

29 on houseprice.io. March 2017 was 44. So the slow does look like its underway

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5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Did you say you were going to do a version of Property Log for Firefox? I stopped using Chrome.

Yes I plan to but it's going to be at least a few weeks before I have something ready I'm afraid. With limited free time I've prioritised bug fixing, dev ops and getting user's old Property Bee data imported (which has helped massively). Sorry for the plug but if anyone has any old PB data they want to send over then feel free to drop me a PM so I can import it into Property Log.

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2 hours ago, GettingBored said:

Yes I plan to but it's going to be at least a few weeks before I have something ready I'm afraid. With limited free time I've prioritised bug fixing, dev ops and getting user's old Property Bee data imported (which has helped massively). Sorry for the plug but if anyone has any old PB data they want to send over then feel free to drop me a PM so I can import it into Property Log.

God's work

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34 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

I've just cross checked my data with houseprices.io, it seems Rightmove has incomplete sales data for March. Regardless of that, the slowdown was happening a long time before March.

If the data is based on completions the march figures are based on sales agreed in December. 

What do the numbers say for the past few years?

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58 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

Yes I plan to but it's going to be at least a few weeks before I have something ready I'm afraid. With limited free time I've prioritised bug fixing, dev ops and getting user's old Property Bee data imported (which has helped massively). Sorry for the plug but if anyone has any old PB data they want to send over then feel free to drop me a PM so I can import it into Property Log.

How do I do this? Send it to you? Where do I find it?

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52 minutes ago, adarmo said:

If the data is based on completions the march figures are based on sales agreed in December. 

What do the numbers say for the past few years?

Numbers for March:

2006 - 69
2007 - 61
2008 - 26
2009 - 29
2010 - 35
2011 - 25
2012 - 54
2013 - 59
2014 - 68
2015 - 65
2016 - 119
2017 - 62
2018 - 35

March isn't really a great month to compare YoY because of this but they are still interesting numbers nonetheless. 2016 was crazy around here and I remember it well because I nearly bought and got quite fed up of not even having my offers entertained because of people putting in offers over asking!

5 minutes ago, Longtermrenter said:

How do I do this? Send it to you? Where do I find it?

I've tried to PM you but you're not accepting PM's. 

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17 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

Numbers for March:

2006 - 69
2007 - 61
2008 - 26
2009 - 29
2010 - 35
2011 - 25
2012 - 54
2013 - 59
2014 - 68
2015 - 65
2016 - 119
2017 - 62
2018 - 35

March isn't really a great month to compare YoY because of this but they are still interesting numbers nonetheless. 2016 was crazy around here and I remember it well because I nearly bought and got quite fed up of not even having my offers entertained because of people putting in offers over asking!

I've tried to PM you but you're not accepting PM's. 

Thanks GB. Interesting numbers for sure. 

2016 was also the rush to beat the additional 3% on BTL and second homes. 

Looks like a buoyant market run rate is circa 55 to 65. Estate agents will be feeling the pain. 

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7 hours ago, adarmo said:

Thanks GB. Interesting numbers for sure. 

2016 was also the rush to beat the additional 3% on BTL and second homes. 

Looks like a buoyant market run rate is circa 55 to 65. Estate agents will be feeling the pain. 

The average over that period is 54, so for March 2018, estate agents income should be down by about 35% compared to average. Maybe they will soon need to think about trying to re-negotiate down the lease payments on their premises, which would not be good for the value of high street commercial property.

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8 hours ago, GettingBored said:

Numbers for March:

2006 - 69
2007 - 61
2008 - 26
2009 - 29
2010 - 35
2011 - 25
2012 - 54
2013 - 59
2014 - 68
2015 - 65
2016 - 119
2017 - 62
2018 - 35

March isn't really a great month to compare YoY because of this but they are still interesting numbers nonetheless. 2016 was crazy around here and I remember it well because I nearly bought and got quite fed up of not even having my offers entertained because of people putting in offers over asking!

I've tried to PM you but you're not accepting PM's. 

Those are proper crash numbers.

This is with IRs at 0.5%, suppressed mortgage rates and high inflation.

FFS, dont buy a house

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6 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

The average over that period is 54, so for March 2018, estate agents income should be down by about 35% compared to average. Maybe they will soon need to think about trying to re-negotiate down the lease payments on their premises, which would not be good for the value of high street commercial property.

Of the EAs ive spoken to, 50% of their income is rental fees.

EAs with a high fixed cost are going to be hammered.

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11 hours ago, GettingBored said:

Numbers for March:

2006 - 69
2007 - 61
2008 - 26
2009 - 29
2010 - 35
2011 - 25
2012 - 54
2013 - 59
2014 - 68
2015 - 65
2016 - 119
2017 - 62
2018 - 35

March isn't really a great month to compare YoY because of this but they are still interesting numbers nonetheless. 2016 was crazy around here and I remember it well because I nearly bought and got quite fed up of not even having my offers entertained because of people putting in offers over asking!

I've tried to PM you but you're not accepting PM's. 

Hmm - can't seem to PM you either - don't know why I am not receiving them. Sorry for potentially being so stupid.

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13 hours ago, GettingBored said:

Numbers for March:

2006 - 69
2007 - 61
2008 - 26
2009 - 29
2010 - 35
2011 - 25
2012 - 54
2013 - 59
2014 - 68
2015 - 65
2016 - 119
2017 - 62
2018 - 35

March isn't really a great month to compare YoY because of this but they are still interesting numbers nonetheless. 2016 was crazy around here and I remember it well because I nearly bought and got quite fed up of not even having my offers entertained because of people putting in offers over asking!

I've tried to PM you but you're not accepting PM's. 

Might be because you are a new member - you probably need 100 posts.

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1 hour ago, Longtermrenter said:

Might be because you are a new member - you probably need 100 posts.

I don't think it's that as I get PM's all the time from other members and am able to send to others also. If I try and message you I get the following warning: "Longtermrenter cannot receive messages."

This forum is slow and so broken!

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1 hour ago, GettingBored said:

I don't think it's that as I get PM's all the time from other members and am able to send to others also. If I try and message you I get the following warning: "Longtermrenter cannot receive messages."

This forum is slow and so broken!

I know! For a while every post i made had to be approved and never was??

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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