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Oliver Sutton

Manufacturing Production down 1.4%

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UK recession been locked in for a long time now. Inevitable.

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1 minute ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Largest monthly fall for years.

Industrial production also down. Trade deficit much worse than expected.

Yet the FTSE is up fairly sharply today. WTF.

https://www.ft.com/content/d76f495c-6d52-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

The FTSE is up because the stock market loves signs of economic weakness, because it thinks they will stop interest rates from rising.

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1 minute ago, FabulousSophie said:

The FTSE is up because the stock market loves signs of economic weakness, because it thinks they will stop interest rates from rising.

If there is anything that proves how much the world is fecked, it's this. The financials rule our lives and have a vested interest in our short time on earth being a constant struggle. If you're African, your wealth is taken - if your working more and more for the man - your time is taken by these maggots.

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13 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Largest monthly fall for years.

Industrial production also down. Trade deficit much worse than expected.

Yet the FTSE is up fairly sharply today. WTF.

https://www.ft.com/content/d76f495c-6d52-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

UK manufacturers are not listed in the FTSE100.

UK manufacturers re struggling with the fall in the pound. In these days for fixed contracts, trashing your currency no longer works as an economic boost.

FTSE companies are more international and are boosted as the US economy contnues its very strong recovery.

FED will but its rates up. BoE is not ~3% behind where it should be.

ECB is looking at raisin rates.

BoE will panic as it realises its fckedup and start ramping up rates - too far, too fast and too late.

 

 

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The upcoming recession is going to be one which is going to affect us all, I do fear that house prices will be the least of our worries. Ten years of kicking the can down the road, eventually you run out of road and that is happening right now.

I feel we're in for a crazy ride, hold onto your hats and make sure you've got your finances and if possible, health in order.

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59 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

The FTSE is up because the stock market loves signs of economic weakness, because it thinks they will stop interest rates from rising.

More easing also helps.....could be those reducing their property portfolio are now pushing some into the other markets, spreading their bets?;)

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5 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

Ok hands up if you think this is the fault of...

a) BREXIT

b) Russians

c) ISIS/Taliban/Al Queda etc etc

d) All of the above

e) Trump

f) Weather

g) Transphobes

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Jaguar Land Rover just announced that they are moving some production to Slovakia.

If we are not manufacturing anything in this country then of course the manufacturing index will go down. 

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I thought we were 'post industrial' now anyway, so it shouldn't matter..?

That our future is retail and  'services', paid for by ever-increasing amounts of consumer debt.

All that silly 'manufacturing and export' is so 20th century anyway - we have financial alchemy to save us!

Plus tattoo parlours, coffee shops, Just Eat and online gambling. The foundations of first-world, technically advanced civilisations dontcha know!

 

 

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32 minutes ago, zilly said:

I thought we were 'post industrial' now anyway, so it shouldn't matter..?

That our future is retail and  'services', paid for by ever-increasing amounts of consumer debt.

All that silly 'manufacturing and export' is so 20th century anyway - we have financial alchemy to save us!

Plus tattoo parlours, coffee shops, Just Eat and online gambling. The foundations of first-world, technically advanced civilisations dontcha know!

 

 

B-but we have the lowest level of unemployment and we’ve hit record highs donchaknow?

All these tax credit self-employed facebook face painting/cup cake companies should do wonders for UK productivity.

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57 minutes ago, zilly said:

I thought we were 'post industrial' now anyway, so it shouldn't matter..?

That our future is retail and  'services', paid for by ever-increasing amounts of consumer debt.

All that silly 'manufacturing and export' is so 20th century anyway - we have financial alchemy to save us!

Plus tattoo parlours, coffee shops, Just Eat and online gambling. The foundations of first-world, technically advanced civilisations dontcha know!

 

What about on-line gaming......a job?.....producing something?;)

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8 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

The only job the economy needs is Mark Carney's. After all, he prints everyone's money. We can all sit back and grow fat off his hard work. We live in an age of miracles.

 

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3 hours ago, Timbuk3 said:

Jaguar Land Rover just announced that they are moving some production to Slovakia.

If we are not manufacturing anything in this country then of course the manufacturing index will go down. 

As per usual the much put upon, young and not established "agency staff" get it, where as the bloke that has been there for 30 years is fine.

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4 hours ago, GettingBored said:

The upcoming recession is going to be one which is going to affect us all, I do fear that house prices will be the least of our worries. Ten years of kicking the can down the road, eventually you run out of road and that is happening right now.

I feel we're in for a crazy ride, hold onto your hats and make sure you've got your finances and if possible, health in order.

Yes, that's what's been worrying me.  I doubt many will be in a position to enjoy the lower house prices that a true 'correction' will bring, that's assuming TPTB don't manage to stoke a full on hyperinflationary bust trying to stave off asset price deflation.

 

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4 hours ago, GettingBored said:

The upcoming recession is going to be one which is going to affect us all, I do fear that house prices will be the least of our worries. Ten years of kicking the can down the road, eventually you run out of road and that is happening right now.

I feel we're in for a crazy ride, hold onto your hats and make sure you've got your finances and if possible, health in order.

I think that's right...house prices fall because folks can't afford them...anyone thinking they will snap up a good value house is most likely going to be disappointed.  Like all other occasions when house prices have fallen the vast majority will watch prices fall but won't be in a position to buy.

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51 minutes ago, Wayward said:

I think that's right...house prices fall because folks can't afford them...anyone thinking they will snap up a good value house is most likely going to be disappointed.  Like all other occasions when house prices have fallen the vast majority will watch prices fall but won't be in a position to buy.

Exactly. Unemployment and a credit squeeze tighter than a gnat's arrse.

Houses only available to those with a lot of cash in the bank - like the Russians and Chinese

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Or renter/saver HPCers that have managed to save a bit and keep their jobs....a rare animal given how savers are severely punished.

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19 hours ago, Fishfinger said:

Ok hands up if you think this is the fault of...

a) BREXIT

b) Russians

c) ISIS/Taliban/Al Queda etc etc

d) All of the above

All of the above and far far more.

I had yet another rare moment of clarity yesterday, and most of you will think what a dumb a*** I am for thinking the obvious. I was thinking about the whole of the UK economy, our politics and of course our insane house prices. I was looking at all the components that was holding it all together, all the lies and smoke and mirrors, the announcing by a politician of what they are about to do and when they never do anything they really need to do.They have to be black as well as white, they need to turn left at the very same moment that they need to turn right. It is now just one giant complex puzzle keeping the UK going in with some kind of "controlled order", by that I mean keeping wealth in the right pockets, and that puzzle is built with a thousand components where if just one fails the who lot fails.

I was thinking yesterday I would like to share on the HPC site  my thinking and try and get it across how the insane house prices we have now can do nothing but end, this very thread is touching on yet just one of those components that can bring it all crashing down and that is the high risk of a recession that I personally have thought inevitable for a while now. So my moment of "clarity" while trying to think of how to get it across was the very same analogy that has been used dozens of times on discussion boards such as this  "A house of cards", yes we have all heard it.

I always knew what it meant, but sometimes it sinks in like it is never done before. Quite often I have seen posters on here get too ahead of themselves and often exaggerate which really annoys me. But house of cards is perfect, and I am talking about one big MF house of cards  made of so many cards. 

Just pull one of those cards away and Whoosh!

It's coming, you can feel it.

e. recession

f. debt

g. job losses

h.

i...........

You can go through the whole alphabet and then start again, so much can go wrong, and will, and yet again say with zero spite in me, I cannot wait

 

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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