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£1.7m will still be 40% too much when reality hits the market.

There is still a long way to go and the sources of ready money are drying up.

Edited by Houdini

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PCL is a bubble in another universe. Maybe they're seeing 25% falls, maybe they're not. This is rather like saying the price of second hand GulfStreams has fallen by 25% - there is no real relevance to the 99.9% who can't afford one, and could probably never have afforded one. Obviously I get the implied 'ripple' out but in really it is another world. 

I'd be interested in knowing what it last changed hands for though. 

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seems a heck of a gamble to me. that’s some big money. 

and flats of all things, how many years supply is sitting unsold at the moment? 

but with that kind of life choice there is no middle ground. you either win big (live close to work and become very rich) or you get x period of time of no commute, then you go bust. 

at least he didn’t buy it at asking. 

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It starts at the top, always. I'll be in London tomorrow, keen to see what the mood is like (I am in fact seeing some guys who work in real estate - not to buy, mind)

 

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2 hours ago, The Crow said:

Henry Prior's words of wisdom:

 

That change in market psychology is going to take a long long time to sink in with some sellers. It has become so ingrained that the seller decides, that I doubt some sellers will ever be able to make the psychological shift.

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17 minutes ago, adarmo said:

PCL is a bubble in another universe. Maybe they're seeing 25% falls, maybe they're not. This is rather like saying the price of second hand GulfStreams has fallen by 25% - there is no real relevance to the 99.9% who can't afford one, and could probably never have afforded one. Obviously I get the implied 'ripple' out but in really it is another world. 

I'd be interested in knowing what it last changed hands for though. 

Pcl affects central London, zone 1 affects zone 2 etc all the way out to zone six and beyond London to the rest of the country.

nowhere is immune, unless your house is speshul then you’ll be fine 

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Someone I know said that they were pleased that the house they overpaid for 2 years ago in a not very nice part of London has apparently gone "up" in price according to Zoopla. I did mention that it was likely any other property they would want to buy would therefore also have gone up in price, so they weren't actually better off. Still, we'll all be millionaires this time next year Rodders...

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5 hours ago, thewig said:

Pcl affects central London, zone 1 affects zone 2 etc all the way out to zone six and beyond London to the rest of the country.

nowhere is immune, unless your house is speshul then you’ll be fine 

Twigs in a vase and scented candles makes your house speshul and can never go down in price.

That's what the teevee tells me so it must be true.   

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7 hours ago, The Crow said:

Henry Prior's words of wisdom:

 

This is pretty massive. The ES is the 4th biggest paper in the country by circulation (source) and a total readership of about 3 million including PC/phone users.

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5 hours ago, FabulousSophie said:

That change in market psychology is going to take a long long time to sink in with some sellers. It has become so ingrained that the seller decides, that I doubt some sellers will ever be able to make the psychological shift.

we've been at that stage for the past 20+ years, this is precisely why and how bubbles burst

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So basically contrary to what the Pollyannas say, here is concrete evidence that we already have 25% price falls from peak...

London 2018 is in exactly the same situation as Tokyo was at the end of the 80s: ridiculous valuations based not on 'fundamentals of supply and demand' but on rampant, reckless speculation (and of course criminal money-laundering).

Being the world's most populous area and a major G7  financial centre didn't stop Tokyo's massive RE bust...won't stop London's, either.

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1 hour ago, zilly said:

So basically contrary to what the Pollyannas say, here is concrete evidence that we already have 25% price falls from peak...

London 2018 is in exactly the same situation as Tokyo was at the end of the 80s: ridiculous valuations based not on 'fundamentals of supply and demand' but on rampant, reckless speculation (and of course criminal money-laundering).

Being the world's most populous area and a major G7  financial centre didn't stop Tokyo's massive RE bust...won't stop London's, either.

 

But for all that too happen. UK needs to be in recession or no growth for two decades, as well as a declining population.

Cant seem to happen anytime soon. Real estate in all major cities in the world is ridiculous. A friend's dad bought a house equivalent of £2m in Islamabad, Pakistan (a third world country with limited economy).

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3 hours ago, zilly said:

So basically contrary to what the Pollyannas say, here is concrete evidence that we already have 25% price falls from peak...

London 2018 is in exactly the same situation as Tokyo was at the end of the 80s: ridiculous valuations based not on 'fundamentals of supply and demand' but on rampant, reckless speculation (and of course criminal money-laundering).

Being the world's most populous area and a major G7  financial centre didn't stop Tokyo's massive RE bust...won't stop London's, either.

Did Tokyo ever attract much inward foreign investment? It isn't an international city , the Japanese like to keep Japan Japanese. 

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6 hours ago, zilly said:

So basically contrary to what the Pollyannas say, here is concrete evidence that we already have 25% price falls from peak...

London 2018 is in exactly the same situation as Tokyo was at the end of the 80s: ridiculous valuations based not on 'fundamentals of supply and demand' but on rampant, reckless speculation (and of course criminal money-laundering).

Being the world's most populous area and a major G7  financial centre didn't stop Tokyo's massive RE bust...won't stop London's, either.

Explain how afall in asking price is a fall in prices? I mean i could stick my house up for sale for double what it's worth, half the price and sell it and that would be a 50% price fall?

Hmmm

Then you bring up Japan. At the peak of the property boom in Japan the total vale of property there was worth 1.5 times the rest of the world, or between 4 and 5 times the value of the USA. London isn't Tokyo despite the current prices. 

Hmmm

Good post

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8 hours ago, FabulousSophie said:

Did Henry Pryor used to be an estate agent, now turned buyer's agent?

I just looked him up. He is indeed an ex-estate agent who went over to the other side. I wonder why more estate agents do not become buyer's agents, since it seems traditional estate agenting is dying and we will probably soon have lots of ex-estata agents.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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