Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
ftb_fml

Halifax May Index out 08:30 Tomorrow (Thursday) - Predictions?

Recommended Posts

My turn this month! Halifax house price index for May is out tomorrow - after last month's shock 3.1% MoM drop, what do we expect to transpire this month?

As much as I'd love more of the same I'm going to go with a modest positive value to partially offset the last massive drop; so I'll say +1.2%.

Edited by ftb_fml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTL - Dead

MMR - Taking over

London - going down the pan

Oxford - going down the pan

If my property lion is to be believed Surrey area is going down the pan also.

Peak selling season - gone

Bad weather 

Most importantly - Term Funding GONE

prospect of IR rises still

Mortgage rates rising

Inflation

Job losses.

 

It's an up 2%+ from me then  :lol: 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Paul77 said:

A modest, negative growth of -0.5% MoM.

I see what you did there.

 

I revise my prediction to a negative decline of +2%

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-1.5%

The ball is now rolling and tomorrow will show that it's gathering momentum. It's a shame that the percentage drops on RM aren't those we see on the actual sales reports... Property Log is showing some nice drops in some areas which I thought might be immune.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

-1.5%

The ball is now rolling and tomorrow will show that it's gathering momentum. It's a shame that the percentage drops on RM aren't those we see on the actual sales reports... Property Log is showing some nice drops in some areas which I thought might be immune.

Hey GB.

Still loving Property Log.

I agree, I think/hope people are in for a shock this month.

The wheels are coming off London, stuff round Clapham that would have been listed for 700K now at £500K.

The shires looks to have died and the interesting one for me is Guildford/Surrey way, it looks like it's falling off a cliff, and as No 1 destination for over paid a-holes coming out of London with bags of free cash it kind of makes sense.

Oxford's being reported as down and if a few other areas follow suit then a big negative cannot be discounted.

The North might mask the falls in the south but they are there from what I see.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

Is that a negative up or a positive up ?

Im never right so I am sure it will be up.

it's always up.

House prices only ever go up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are there similar indices for commercial property?

I'm thinking that with all these retailers going under or doing pre-pack CVA's that any holders of commercial property will be nursing big losses.  I recall a story on Bloomberg that the UK banks had already written off their contingency funds for property loss this year and any further losses would eat into their Tier 1 capital but I cannot find it again.  The knock on effect of that, if it is true, would then stop lending for house purchases as they had less cash to lend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is that a negative up or a positive up ?

Im never right so I am sure it will be up.

it's always up.

House prices only ever go up.

Exactly. You can’t go wrong with bricks and mortar 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

I concur.

However if it is only a tiny rise July’s number will have to be a decent positive to compensate for April’s whopper and stop the YoY year going to zero/negative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Peak season, it depends on credit they are pimping out to the mass of phools... 🤣

Straight from the horses mouth "From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations."

Link - "Leverage a proven methodology that has remained consistent throughout the Halifax HPI history, enabling direct comparability of current index levels with historical values"

If the trend is down, based on Land Registry, the xtra mob will see how much was borrowed and create a fudged order of magnitude estimate (a range between negative 5% to a positive 75%) for the masses to follow 🤣

Does anyone read the fine print?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love the way that they were peddling the "monthly figures are volatile" thing last month, and in the same breath stating "we haven't seen a monthly fall like this since for years" - so yes we see volatility, i.e. drops, but not usually this much volatility!

 

+0.7% from me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

My turn this month! Halifax house price index for May is out tomorrow - after last month's shock 3.1% MoM drop, what do we expect to transpire this month?

As much as I'd love more of the same I'm going to go with a modest positive value to partially offset the last massive drop; so I'll say +1.2%.

Up 3.2%?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to stick my neck out and say down...at least -1%.

 

If I'm right I'll tell u why tomorrow.

 

If I'm wrong...I'll tell ya anyway.

 

I have a good news anecdote for you all.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

The wheels are coming off London, stuff round Clapham that would have been listed for 700K now at £500K.

 

I keep an eye on clapham too, and can confirm this. Most asking prices are dropping £50k after 4-6 weeks on the market with no interest.

Also, central London has quite a few nice 1 beds around £550k. The bottom end for one beds was about £600k back in 2016.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, dropbear said:

I keep an eye on clapham too, and can confirm this. Most asking prices are dropping £50k after 4-6 weeks on the market with no interest.

Also, central London has quite a few nice 1 beds around £550k. The bottom end for one beds was about £600k back in 2016.

Cheers.

London will take out the shires.

 

We've said this all along.

 

It will happen.

 

The ejits spanking their load on northern sh#t holes will lose everything and not be well placed to buy a home where they want to live.

 

Well done to the MSM for that gem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.