Halifax May Index out 08:30 Tomorrow (Thursday) - Predictions?

[ftb_fml]

My turn this month! Halifax house price index for May is out tomorrow - after last month's shock 3.1% MoM drop, what do we expect to transpire this month?

As much as I'd love more of the same I'm going to go with a modest positive value to partially offset the last massive drop; so I'll say +1.2%.

Edited June 6, 2018 by ftb_fml

[TheCountOfNowhere]

BTL - Dead

MMR - Taking over

London - going down the pan

Oxford - going down the pan

If my property lion is to be believed Surrey area is going down the pan also.

Peak selling season - gone

Bad weather 

Most importantly - Term Funding GONE

prospect of IR rises still

Mortgage rates rising

Inflation

Job losses.

 

It's an up 2%+ from me then   

Edited June 6, 2018 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Paul77]

A modest, negative growth of -0.5% MoM.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, Paul77 said:

A modest, negative growth of -0.5% MoM.

I see what you did there.

 

I revise my prediction to a negative decline of +2%

 

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by TheCountOfNowhere

[GettingBored]

-1.5%

The ball is now rolling and tomorrow will show that it's gathering momentum. It's a shame that the percentage drops on RM aren't those we see on the actual sales reports... Property Log is showing some nice drops in some areas which I thought might be immune.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

-1.5%

The ball is now rolling and tomorrow will show that it's gathering momentum. It's a shame that the percentage drops on RM aren't those we see on the actual sales reports... Property Log is showing some nice drops in some areas which I thought might be immune.

Hey GB.

Still loving Property Log.

I agree, I think/hope people are in for a shock this month.

The wheels are coming off London, stuff round Clapham that would have been listed for 700K now at £500K.

The shires looks to have died and the interesting one for me is Guildford/Surrey way, it looks like it's falling off a cliff, and as No 1 destination for over paid a-holes coming out of London with bags of free cash it kind of makes sense.

Oxford's being reported as down and if a few other areas follow suit then a big negative cannot be discounted.

The North might mask the falls in the south but they are there from what I see.

 

[hurlerontheditch]

+1.5%

[FabulousSophie]

40 minutes ago, Paul77 said:

A modest, negative growth of -0.5% MoM.

I think it will be something more subtle, like unrealised growth of -0.5%.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Someone been given the nod ?

 

http://www.cityam.com/287039/london-house-prices-expected-fall-year-brexit-uncertainty

London house prices expected to fall this year as Brexit uncertainty holds back demand

[rantnrave]

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

Is that a negative up or a positive up ?

Im never right so I am sure it will be up.

it's always up.

House prices only ever go up.

[Timbuk3]

Are there similar indices for commercial property?

I'm thinking that with all these retailers going under or doing pre-pack CVA's that any holders of commercial property will be nursing big losses.  I recall a story on Bloomberg that the UK banks had already written off their contingency funds for property loss this year and any further losses would eat into their Tier 1 capital but I cannot find it again.  The knock on effect of that, if it is true, would then stop lending for house purchases as they had less cash to lend. 

[hurlerontheditch]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is that a negative up or a positive up ?

Im never right so I am sure it will be up.

it's always up.

House prices only ever go up.

Exactly. You can’t go wrong with bricks and mortar 

[LetsBuild]

1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Fairy certain it will be up, to offset lost month's whopper. The MSM will have an absolute feast on a figure of +1% or more - housing market shakes off Brexit blues, shows resilience, 'surges' etc

I concur.

However if it is only a tiny rise July’s number will have to be a decent positive to compensate for April’s whopper and stop the YoY year going to zero/negative.

[maverick73]

Peak season, it depends on credit they are pimping out to the mass of phools... 🤣

Straight from the horses mouth "From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations."

Link - "Leverage a proven methodology that has remained consistent throughout the Halifax HPI history, enabling direct comparability of current index levels with historical values"

If the trend is down, based on Land Registry, the xtra mob will see how much was borrowed and create a fudged order of magnitude estimate (a range between negative 5% to a positive 75%) for the masses to follow 🤣

Does anyone read the fine print?

[Guest]

Anywhere between -3% and +3%

[Trump Invective]

I love the way that they were peddling the "monthly figures are volatile" thing last month, and in the same breath stating "we haven't seen a monthly fall like this since for years" - so yes we see volatility, i.e. drops, but not usually this much volatility!

 

+0.7% from me

[GreenDevil]

5 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

My turn this month! Halifax house price index for May is out tomorrow - after last month's shock 3.1% MoM drop, what do we expect to transpire this month?

As much as I'd love more of the same I'm going to go with a modest positive value to partially offset the last massive drop; so I'll say +1.2%.

Up 3.2%?

[DisgruntledCynic]

+0.6%

[winkie]

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say down...at least -1%.

 

If I'm right I'll tell u why tomorrow.

 

If I'm wrong...I'll tell ya anyway.

 

I have a good news anecdote for you all.

Edited June 6, 2018 by TheCountOfNowhere

[dropbear]

7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

The wheels are coming off London, stuff round Clapham that would have been listed for 700K now at £500K.

 

I keep an eye on clapham too, and can confirm this. Most asking prices are dropping £50k after 4-6 weeks on the market with no interest.

Also, central London has quite a few nice 1 beds around £550k. The bottom end for one beds was about £600k back in 2016.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

21 minutes ago, dropbear said:

I keep an eye on clapham too, and can confirm this. Most asking prices are dropping £50k after 4-6 weeks on the market with no interest.

Also, central London has quite a few nice 1 beds around £550k. The bottom end for one beds was about £600k back in 2016.

Cheers.

London will take out the shires.

 

We've said this all along.

 

It will happen.

 

The ejits spanking their load on northern sh#t holes will lose everything and not be well placed to buy a home where they want to live.

 

Well done to the MSM for that gem.

[jiltedjen]

+0.02%

they will revise last months figures also. 

[stuckmojo]

33 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

+0.02%

they will revise last months figures also. 

this.