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Unemployment: Fact or Fiction?

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Read this...fits in with the recent narrative...and current uptick in 'reported' unemployment.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7

Supposedly...when unemployment hits all time low's...the next thing to happen is....yep, lots of unemployment....supposedly. Could be fake...

Not quite sure anymore....bad is good, black is white....

 

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I doubt there has ever been a time since records began when unemployment figures have been so manipulated and fraudulent... all due to people being ''employed'' on zero/low hours contracts or ''self employed'' in non-viable hobby jobs and reliant on ''Working'' Tax Credits and other associated benefits for the bulk of their income.

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4 minutes ago, nome said:

I doubt there has ever been a time since records began when unemployment figures have been so manipulated and fraudulent... all due to people being ''employed'' on zero/low hours contracts or ''self employed'' in non-viable hobby jobs and reliant on ''Working'' Tax Credits and other associated benefits for the bulk of their income.

Agree about the manipulation, but I don't remember any of the highlighted being a thing when I was growing up in the 80's.

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2 hours ago, nome said:

I doubt there has ever been a time since records began when unemployment figures have been so manipulated and fraudulent... all due to people being ''employed'' on zero/low hours contracts or ''self employed'' in non-viable hobby jobs and reliant on ''Working'' Tax Credits and other associated benefits for the bulk of their income.

Add in the school leaving age and I would wager that true unemployment is at an all time high.

Times have changed, there just isn't enough work to go around what with automation and globalisation.

If we want more employment we need to lower our living standards and try to compete with China (zero chance). We don't have oil or vast reserves of minerals or precious stones.

The only chance we have is technology and engineering. I believe the government should be making massive investments in R&D, medical research etc. High tech products and services that we can sell to the rest of world. We can't compete with making billions of low cost plastic widgets with a huge reserve of cheap labour like China.

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How many work hours per week to be employed?.......one person working one day a week the same as one person working seven days a week doing two jobs?😉

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Let’s not forget the ‘Economically inactive’ ruse too, where if you’re 18-21 and living at home, you can’t claim benefits, so aren’t unemployed.  The people with money to survive whilst being out of work, being classed as economically inactive.  The zero hour contracts, gig economy, people topped up with tax credits.  Students…

The truth is, if we measured unemployment, with the same gusto as the continent, we’d have extremely high unemployment.  Given, historically, more Europeans attend tertiary education and are classed as unemployed, we’d not be far off the worst in the EU.

I do like the notion that unemployment is so low, that it’s going to show us actually how high it is, is a wonderful dichotomy

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8 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Let’s not forget the ‘Economically inactive’ ruse too, where if you’re 18-21 and living at home, you can’t claim benefits, so aren’t unemployed.  The people with money to survive whilst being out of work, being classed as economically inactive.  The zero hour contracts, gig economy, people topped up with tax credits.  Students…

The truth is, if we measured unemployment, with the same gusto as the continent, we’d have extremely high unemployment.  Given, historically, more Europeans attend tertiary education and are classed as unemployed, we’d not be far off the worst in the EU.

I do like the notion that unemployment is so low, that it’s going to show us actually how high it is, is a wonderful dichotomy

How much do our artificially rosy unemployment figures encourage others to come here?

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21 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

How much do our artificially rosy unemployment figures encourage others to come here?

It's actually a very good question, and quite possibly why amongst the Southern States there is so much young immigration to the main cities.

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A friend, who worked in IT for 30 years and can't get an IT job since he turned 50, recently applied for Aldi.

He had to fill an online form and do an on-line test that took 2 hours. The test, he said, was not a trivial walkover by any means - requiring rapid mental arithmetic, knowledge of ratios and percentage calculations, workplace psycology and second guessing 'The Aldi Way'.

Then he had a first interview.

Then he was invited to an 'Aldi Experience' where, on the hottest day of the year so far he had to work like a dog for four hours stacking shelves and moving pallets around in the storeroom. He had to buy a pair of steel capped shoes from Screwfix to attend this. The store manager was impressed with him but made it clear that the decision to hire was not up to him.

Then he had a 1 hour interview a twenty something area manager lady who had the final decision - he thought it went well.

A week later he received an email notifying him that his application was unsuccessful.

I guess he must have applied for hundreds of similar jobs with similar results. He's articulate, easy going and has a good work ethic.

Last week I heard he stopped applying for jobs and has become a 'carer' for his elderly mum.

Anecdotal I know, but I think it serves to illuminate what is really going on as opposed to the Orwellian double-speak.

A recent article in the Guardian highlighted how some NMW retail jobs in London had selection processes more suited to a West End musical production casting than a shop job.

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17 minutes ago, Cryptotrader said:

A friend, who worked in IT for 30 years and can't get an IT job since he turned 50, recently applied for Aldi.

He had to fill an online form and do an on-line test that took 2 hours. The test, he said, was not a trivial walkover by any means - requiring rapid mental arithmetic, knowledge of ratios and percentage calculations, workplace psycology and second guessing 'The Aldi Way'.

Then he had a first interview.

Then he was invited to an 'Aldi Experience' where, on the hottest day of the year so far he had to work like a dog for four hours stacking shelves and moving pallets around in the storeroom. He had to buy a pair of steel capped shoes from Screwfix to attend this. The store manager was impressed with him but made it clear that the decision to hire was not up to him.

Then he had a 1 hour interview a twenty something area manager lady who had the final decision - he thought it went well.

A week later he received an email notifying him that his application was unsuccessful.

I guess he must have applied for hundreds of similar jobs with similar results. He's articulate, easy going and has a good work ethic.

Last week I heard he stopped applying for jobs and has become a 'carer' for his elderly mum.

Anecdotal I know, but I think it serves to illuminate what is really going on as opposed to the Orwellian double-speak.

A recent article in the Guardian highlighted how some NMW retail jobs in London had selection processes more suited to a West End musical production casting than a shop job.

I hate to say this, and please take it the right way, but I run an IT company, and part of that involves recruitment for other companies.  I placed a couple of 50 and 60 year olds in the other day.  If your friend of 30 years IT experience cannot get a job in this market, he's either not looking at the market properly, is so niche the work he did doesn't really have a market anymore, or isn't that good.  Sorry, but the market is screaming out for experienced IT folk at the moment, especially on the contract front.

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2 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

I believe the government should be making massive investments in R&D, medical research etc

That will not help. We are in this situation precisely because busybodies in the government who know better than anybody else have rammed intervention after intervention into our lives.

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To add to that - I know a number of folk in IT recruitment. If your pal has a non Indian sounding name - he will already go to the top of the pile. Not fair but well - its the truth. About 90% of the CV's my contacts get for most roles are from Indians*.

Just the reputation they have mainly from the Off shoring companies like Wipro and Infosys and the like. It hasn't left a good taste in the mouths of those hiring.....to put it mildly.

Pretty brutal for those with Indian names who are actually very good. Tarred with the same brush. Such is life though - ain't always fair.

Anyway - taking this way off topic !!

 

* Indian names - whether they come from Indian or not is another matter.

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6 minutes ago, ccc said:

To add to that - I know a number of folk in IT recruitment. If your pal has a non Indian sounding name - he will already go to the top of the pile. Not fair but well - its the truth. About 90% of the CV's my contacts get for most roles are from Indians*.

Just the reputation they have mainly from the Off shoring companies like Wipro and Infosys and the like. It hasn't left a good taste in the mouths of those hiring.....to put it mildly.

Pretty brutal for those with Indian names who are actually very good. Tarred with the same brush. Such is life though - ain't always fair.

Anyway - taking this way off topic !!

 

* Indian names - whether they come from Indian or not is another matter.

I would tend to back this up, to the point that I actually know Indians now who have 'westernised' their names.

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The unemployement figures are probably more fake than ever before, but I guess are needed to support the fake GDP figures which I am sure are distorted by QE and its affect on the financial sector.

I do wonder if the UK (and maybe other western economies) are going to be like the 1980s Soviet Union where all the propaganda said all is running fine but everyday people find the shelves in the shops are empty, and know full well all is not well.

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13 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I would tend to back this up, to the point that I actually know Indians now who have 'westernised' their names.

I was about to add that if I had that type of name I would seriously consider changing it for $$$ sake.

Not surprised its already happening.

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19 minutes ago, nightowl said:

The unemployement figures are probably more fake than ever before, but I guess are needed to support the fake GDP figures which I am sure are distorted by QE and its affect on the financial sector.

I do wonder if the UK (and maybe other western economies) are going to be like the 1980s Soviet Union where all the propaganda said all is running fine but everyday people find the shelves in the shops are empty, and know full well all is not well.

This all resonates with me.  The picture of 'the economy' painted by the media is not reflected in the experiences that many of us have.  From the state of the roads, the financial pressure on the NHS, the absurd recruitment procedures practiced by organisations like Aldi (as mentioned above), all indicate an economy under stress not an economy that is booming.  I suspect that if you placed a '1' in front of our supposed % unemployment rate you would be closer to the truth.

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4 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

Add in the school leaving age and I would wager that true unemployment is at an all time high.

Times have changed, there just isn't enough work to go around what with automation and globalisation.

If we want more employment we need to lower our living standards and try to compete with China (zero chance). We don't have oil or vast reserves of minerals or precious stones.

The only chance we have is technology and engineering. I believe the government should be making massive investments in R&D, medical research etc. High tech products and services that we can sell to the rest of world. We can't compete with making billions of low cost plastic widgets with a huge reserve of cheap labour like China.

Total carp on lowering living standard and competing with China.

We need to become more efficient and productive to compete, not cheaper.

We need to be looking at wealth creation rather than make work. We should not be handing out 2k in benefits to Romanian hand car washers. We should be investing in capital plant.

As far as competing with China. China is not that cheap. Some stuff is now cehaper to do in the UK than China.

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Total carp on lowering living standard and competing with China. - That's why I said zero chance.

We need to become more efficient and productive to compete, not cheaper. - Agree, efficiency and productivity leads to cheaper

We need to be looking at wealth creation rather than make work. We should not be handing out 2k in benefits to Romanian hand car washers. We should be investing in capital plant. - 100% agree

As far as competing with China. China is not that cheap. Some stuff is now cehaper to do in the UK than China. - do you have some examples? Genuine question. We have had industrial components that were chinese made fail due to poor quality. You could argue it was down to the supplier not doing enough quality control but they have gone bust.

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1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

I hate to say this, and please take it the right way, but I run an IT company, and part of that involves recruitment for other companies.  I placed a couple of 50 and 60 year olds in the other day.  If your friend of 30 years IT experience cannot get a job in this market, he's either not looking at the market properly, is so niche the work he did doesn't really have a market anymore, or isn't that good.  Sorry, but the market is screaming out for experienced IT folk at the moment, especially on the contract front.

That is not my experience at all. I have several friends in South East & London ranging from 51 - 57 who were very good at what they did in IT, not niche or stale at all and are no longer working in IT. Funnily enough a couple are of Indian decent so that resonates with an earlier post.

The same thing happened to me (finished a highly successful lead design/architect role - capex £10mil) a week after my fiftieth, six years ago - never worked again in IT. So many time-wasting and toxic interviews & stupid, incomprehensible job requirements and specs. Luckily I got into crypto early and didn't have to worry. Also I can read novels and watch box sets instead of reading the latest books on patterns, protocols and doing course after course. Lovely!

If you have another perspective, good for you! Just tell me this, in an industry stressed with a so called 'skills shortage' why are the vast majority of job/contract requirements/specs and offer, on sites like Jobserve, so ludicrous? Why are the HR follow up job specs even more ludicrous? Why can't clients be arsed to even acknowledge, with a ten second email, that someone was unsuccessful after an interview they travelled 100 miles to attend? And why do the mainly younger people I know, still in IT, complain incessantly about the toxic working conditions and dreadful bullying atmospheres in their workplaces? Doesn't sound like an industry desperate for people to me.

Thank the Lord for Satoshi Nakamoto, Charlie Lee, Sunny King, Vitalik Buterin and Sasha Ivanov etc and crypto is all I can say! I make much better money than contracting, have a lot more security and can pretty much work as I want to.

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55 minutes ago, Cryptotrader said:

That is not my experience at all. I have several friends in South East & London ranging from 51 - 57 who were very good at what they did in IT, not niche or stale at all and are no longer working in IT. Funnily enough a couple are of Indian decent so that resonates with an earlier post.

The same thing happened to me (finished a highly successful lead design/architect role - capex £10mil) a week after my fiftieth, six years ago - never worked again in IT. So many time-wasting and toxic interviews & stupid, incomprehensible job requirements and specs. Luckily I got into crypto early and didn't have to worry. Also I can read novels and watch box sets instead of reading the latest books on patterns, protocols and doing course after course. Lovely!

If you have another perspective, good for you! Just tell me this, in an industry stressed with a so called 'skills shortage' why are the vast majority of job/contract requirements/specs and offer, on sites like Jobserve, so ludicrous? Why are the HR follow up job specs even more ludicrous? Why can't clients be arsed to even acknowledge, with a ten second email, that someone was unsuccessful after an interview they travelled 100 miles to attend? And why do the mainly younger people I know, still in IT, complain incessantly about the toxic working conditions and dreadful bullying atmospheres in their workplaces? Doesn't sound like an industry desperate for people to me.

Thank the Lord for Satoshi Nakamoto, Charlie Lee, Sunny King, Vitalik Buterin and Sasha Ivanov etc and crypto is all I can say! I make much better money than contracting, have a lot more security and can pretty much work as I want to.

How do you make money with cryptos - pump and dump or were you just an early investor living off huge increases in certain cryptos?

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The way it works in the US is that once people have been unemployed for a certain period they 'drop off' the numbers, so eventually the US will end up with unemployment figures at almost zero.

Mission accomplished!

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1 hour ago, Pitchfork said:

Total carp on lowering living standard and competing with China. - That's why I said zero chance.

We need to become more efficient and productive to compete, not cheaper. - Agree, efficiency and productivity leads to cheaper

We need to be looking at wealth creation rather than make work. We should not be handing out 2k in benefits to Romanian hand car washers. We should be investing in capital plant. - 100% agree

As far as competing with China. China is not that cheap. Some stuff is now cehaper to do in the UK than China. - do you have some examples? Genuine question. We have had industrial components that were chinese made fail due to poor quality. You could argue it was down to the supplier not doing enough quality control but they have gone bust.

Most stuff I deal with is production and assembly. Running a production line for product runs of 100 to 1000s items.

15 years ago, a one off from China would cost less - in labour -  than 100 prpuction run - assembly and test.

As Labour was a significant quantity, people used to make 2-3x the number to allow for sh1t QA.

Today, the production lines are slightly more automated. Unless you are Apple then its probably not worth sending stuff to China - they are not cheap.

And, also i your not Apple, he QA is still not there.

Chines cheap labour was exhausted 10 years ago.

I dont touch the like of widgets making. But, agait the rise in China labour and the fall i nthe pound has made that unviable.

Keep it current, look at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44383097

'Born into a "fairground family" Mr Edwards, 67, spent his early years travelling the UK

Founded Poundworld in 1974, and in the 1980s expanded into nightclubs

The retailer really took off "when a friend introduced us to importing from the Far East"'

 

I know of mutiple businesses that were created/grew big by just importing containers from China. Theyd spec out some knock off what not, put it with an agent, and, ~3 moths  later, a few containers would turn up in Ipswich.

Thats just not viable any more.

Part of the cost saving was probably down to saving import duty.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Cryptotrader said:

A friend, who worked in IT for 30 years and can't get an IT job since he turned 50, recently applied for Aldi.

He had to fill an online form and do an on-line test that took 2 hours. The test, he said, was not a trivial walkover by any means - requiring rapid mental arithmetic, knowledge of ratios and percentage calculations, workplace psycology and second guessing 'The Aldi Way'.

Then he had a first interview.

Then he was invited to an 'Aldi Experience' where, on the hottest day of the year so far he had to work like a dog for four hours stacking shelves and moving pallets around in the storeroom. He had to buy a pair of steel capped shoes from Screwfix to attend this. The store manager was impressed with him but made it clear that the decision to hire was not up to him.

Then he had a 1 hour interview a twenty something area manager lady who had the final decision - he thought it went well.

A week later he received an email notifying him that his application was unsuccessful.

I guess he must have applied for hundreds of similar jobs with similar results. He's articulate, easy going and has a good work ethic.

Last week I heard he stopped applying for jobs and has become a 'carer' for his elderly mum.

Anecdotal I know, but I think it serves to illuminate what is really going on as opposed to the Orwellian double-speak.

A recent article in the Guardian highlighted how some NMW retail jobs in London had selection processes more suited to a West End musical production casting than a shop job.

Or those jobs don’t exist.

quite handy having the budget for an unfilled role.

it also feeds the we need to import skills narrative after pumping out ridiculous job specs.

I also love the “there’s x thousand unfilled vacancies” canard.

Yeah ok go on Totaljobs.com.

out of a search return of approx 50:

at least a dozen were duplicate adverts, either directly or in directly via different agencies.

Over a dozen were adverts for courses

and quite a few jobs which are always advertised.

utter BS

I do agree with others that good experienced IT people are in demand. Usually as contracts though.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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