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Sour Mash

Brexit: Joint UK/EU status for NI .. House prices up?

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Could this be a go-er?

https://news.sky.com/story/joint-ukeu-status-and-border-buffer-zone-for-northern-ireland-under-consideration-in-new-brexit-plans-11391586

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/UK-considering-giving-Northern-Ireland-joint-UK-and-EU-status-570918.html

 

Not sure if they mean for the whole of NI or just within a 10 mile buffer zone but even if it was only within a 10 mile zone that would be fantastic economic news for the likes of Derry and would likely send house prices soaring in the areas and anywhere commute-able to the zone.  I cold see massive external investment as well as lots of business from UK organisations wanting a foothold in the EU.

If it was NI-wide, it would be a massive boost to the entire economy and would likely send prices up, up, up.

Seriously considering buying if that turns out to be the case, before the implications sink in to the general housebuying public.

 

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The buffer zone idea was thrown out of the water by both main political parties and won't be a goer.

If it was NI-wide I can see the potential for what you are saying but it's a massive IF given the political instability here.

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I can't see the buffer running as I don't see how it solves anything.

Joint EU & UK reg would possibly have left NI in a wonderful world position. it is not without its complications even ignoring the political parties who have impaled themselves on flag poles.

 

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It would be the dream scenario for NI and I would buy a house the week it was set in stone. The DUP seem hell bent on trashing the NI economy so i cant see it ever happening.

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On 06/06/2018 at 14:00, zamo said:

It would be the dream scenario for NI and I would buy a house the week it was set in stone. The DUP seem hell bent on trashing the NI economy so i cant see it ever happening.

Cutting off the nose to spite the face seems to be a specialty of theirs.  Better to be a poor region 100% dependent on Westminster than have a potentially thriving economy with an element of 'non-Britishness' about it, it would seem.  If this is on the table and they are seen to have been the ones that vetoed it, their vote will suffer I think and I could see more sensible Unionist parties making gains.

But if the joint membership thing comes to fruition, I think I'll buy a house ASAP.  There will be a huge boost to the economy and I can't see prices going anywhere but up with the massive improvement - a bit like how the ending of the troubles provided a permanent structural boost to house prices.

 

 

 

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On 08/06/2018 at 12:15, Sour Mash said:

Cutting off the nose to spite the face seems to be a specialty of theirs.  Better to be a poor region 100% dependent on Westminster than have a potentially thriving economy with an element of 'non-Britishness' about it, it would seem.  If this is on the table and they are seen to have been the ones that vetoed it, their vote will suffer I think and I could see more sensible Unionist parties making gains.

But if the joint membership thing comes to fruition, I think I'll buy a house ASAP.  There will be a huge boost to the economy and I can't see prices going anywhere but up with the massive improvement - a bit like how the ending of the troubles provided a permanent structural boost to house prices.

 

 

 

I have no idea what the impact of any the outcomes will have. There are simply too many knock-on impacts to consider. It is arguarable that house prices were deflated by the troubles and once that was removed they inflated. we all seen how that turned out.

However one thing is for sure and something we all need to remember;

NI holds about 3% of the population of the whole UK.

When the UK government finally have to make a decision on direction -the best outcome for the other 97% will surely out weigh the best outcome for the 3%.

What happens to house prices is the least of our concerns. We are in the middle of a multi-generational change to our economy and the people dealing with it, particularly here in Ni are not in the least qualified.  

The song in my head is:

Clowns to the left of me

Jokers to the right

Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you

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NI has some of the worst politicians anywhere ... not just corrupt, as is normal, but the local "two party system" where you identify along sectarian lines as opposed to left/right wing as promoted in most Western 'democracies' is even more effective at getting them captive voter bases who just need to be appeased with token measures - regardless of whether  or not they are doing anybody any good or getting results.

What an utter sham - the fact that an extended period of time without the devolved government has had little tangible impact tells you how useless they are.  They are very good however at drawing a salary for doing nothing.

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The supposedly wonderful Good Friday agreement only solidifies  the sectarianised system, and promotes a vote for extremist parties. Even during the worst of the troubles the dup and Sinn Fein were only ever minority parties. Now we've got Sinn Fein commemorating the Caledon housing protest as if it was them and not Austin Currie who organized it. The dup, 70% of whose representatives are free Presbyterian, (from a total population of 16,000) rant off about gays as if people actually cared. The result is politicians who do not represent those who voted for them.

Yea - brexit. I think we've a lot more to worry about than house prices. Like whether you have a job.

Edited by yadayada

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On 12/06/2018 at 14:38, JoeDavola said:

Wow - had no idea that NI was a mere 3% of the UK population.

Certainly puts things in perspective.

Easy enough to divide 1.6 million by 58 million.

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2 hours ago, yadayada said:

The supposedly wonderful Good Friday agreement only solidifies  the sectarianised system, and promotes a vote for extremist parties. Even during the worst of the troubles the dup and Sinn Fein were only ever minority parties. Now we've got Sinn Fein commemorating the Caledon housing protest as if it was them and not Austin Currie who organized it. The dup, 70% of whose representatives are free Presbyterian, (from a total population of 16,000) rant off about gays as if people actually cared. The result is politicians who do not represent those who voted for them.

Yea - brexit. I think we've a lot more to worry about than house prices. Like whether you have a job.

It does seem like NI, or Belfast specifically, has a load of money knocking about these days; certainly compared to say 5 years ago - two massive hotel developments taking place, new office blocks in recent years ect...the money must be coming from somewhere, though I don't know where, and whether or not it's something that can disappear as quickly as it seems to have appeared.

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14 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

It does seem like NI, or Belfast specifically, has a load of money knocking about these days; certainly compared to say 5 years ago - two massive hotel developments taking place, new office blocks in recent years ect...the money must be coming from somewhere, though I don't know where, and whether or not it's something that can disappear as quickly as it seems to have appeared.

London as my Dad said, although I pointed out it was more of a swap for the best and the brightest. It must be kept in mind that quantity of money still pumped into Northern Ireland and the huge number of reasonably well paid public sector jobs it supports. Conversely, we lose a great number of well educated people because there aren't the jobs and/or suitable prospects to keep them. 

The NI market seems very buoyant. New residential developments as well as construction of commercial property is clearly evident. 

After lurking on this site for about 12 years I must confess to having gone sale agreed on a house last week. For me, it's a bit now or never, given my age and having small kids. I really hope this goes through too and have no regrets after what as a fraught week of offer and counter-offer for the house. Ironically, people here were a bit amazed at what it cost and friends in Kent were amazed at what you can get for your money. 

 

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8 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

For me, it's a bit now or never, given my age and having small kids.

Completely understand that. I'm of that age too where if I actually had a partner, I should be thinking about settling down and having kids.

Hope all goes well with the new house.

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30 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Completely understand that. I'm of that age too where if I actually had a partner, I should be thinking about settling down and having kids.

Hope all goes well with the new house.

Thank you. I'm in the fortunate position that it would take for both my wife and I to lose our jobs for things to go really wrong so, given the current direction of the market, we chose to bite the bullet and try and get on with our lives. I'll still be keeping a very keen eye on things mind you! 

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This idea is bordering on the insane... in terms of what the DUP would accept. 

Their whole strategy is to do with de-integrating with the south and pushing economic integration with Britain, to ensure reunification is less likely. 

I can't really understand why nobody gets that. 

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On 30/06/2018 at 11:28, gruffydd said:

This idea is bordering on the insane... in terms of what the DUP would accept. 

Their whole strategy is to do with de-integrating with the south and pushing economic integration with Britain, to ensure reunification is less likely. 

I can't really understand why nobody gets that. 

Brexit is insane.

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On 30/06/2018 at 11:28, gruffydd said:

This idea is bordering on the insane... in terms of what the DUP would accept. 

Their whole strategy is to do with de-integrating with the south and pushing economic integration with Britain, to ensure reunification is less likely. 

I can't really understand why nobody gets that.  

I think most people do get that.

Unfortunately for the DUP the demographics they are a changin' and it's getting hard to sell the idea that NI is somehow better off forever being a hanger-on to the British taxpayer than making choices that will make the place better off financially and less dependent on hand-outs.  If it turns out that a deal like this was on the table and they kicked it into touch, they will pay a price.

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2 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

I think most people do get that.

Unfortunately for the DUP the demographics they are a changin' and it's getting hard to sell the idea that NI is somehow better off forever being a hanger-on to the British taxpayer than making choices that will make the place better off financially and less dependent on hand-outs.  If it turns out that a deal like this was on the table and they kicked it into touch, they will pay a price.

There's a great discussion on slugger about the subvention and the widening gulf between North and South. The "they can't afford us" argument is getting weaker day by day. 

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Why should anyone have to afford us? Does anyone really see a status as a 1980s style dole kid as satisfactory or desirable? If Whitehall cut off the money supply and left us to thrive on our own merits we'd soon find who really wants to live here. 

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On 11/07/2018 at 08:23, yadayada said:

Why should anyone have to afford us? Does anyone really see a status as a 1980s style dole kid as satisfactory or desirable? If Whitehall cut off the money supply and left us to thrive on our own merits we'd soon find who really wants to live here. 

Very true but there are many other zones/areas of the UK, particularly in the north, with 3% or less of the population that are exactly in the same position. The truth is the South East of England subsides many other cities and regions of the UK. When you read regional financial analysis reports NI, surprisingly is not always at the bottom.

Similarly, I imagine that Dublin and Cork subside many of the other counties.   

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5 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Very true but there are many other zones/areas of the UK, particularly in the north, with 3% or less of the population that are exactly in the same position. The truth is the South East of England subsides many other cities and regions of the UK. When you read regional financial analysis reports NI, surprisingly is not always at the bottom.

Similarly, I imagine that Dublin and Cork subside many of the other counties.   

It's a question of scale. 

NI fiscal deficit is approx £5438 per head. The region with the second highest deficit is Wales at £4547. 

So around 17% more. That's an impressive amount. 

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3 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It's a question of scale. 

NI fiscal deficit is approx £5438 per head. The region with the second highest deficit is Wales at £4547. 

So around 17% more. That's an impressive amount. 

The GFA states that anyone born in NI is entitled to both UK & ROI (ie EU) citizenship. Many Brexit scenarios could end up with NI as a hong kong+ part of the UK - how can they possibly take ROI (EU) citizenship away from UK, NI born people, WRT to the GF agreement?

Great for NI, hopefully not ending in another NI HPI boom.

Edited by Guest
apologies for all the TLAs

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16 hours ago, highYield said:

The GFA states that anyone born in NI is entitled to both UK & ROI (ie EU) citizenship. Many Brexit scenarios could end up with NI as a hong kong+ part of the UK - how can they possibly take ROI (EU) citizenship away from UK, NI born people, WRT to the GF agreement?

Great for NI, hopefully not ending in another NI HPI boom.

Citizenship has many forms and having a harp or crown on your passport does not guarantee you access to, for example health care in a country you are not a resident (or tax payer) unless there are agreements in place to allow same. The statements made earlier this year by the Irish Gov regarding EU citizenship for Irish Passport holders in NI were not his to make. That is something that can only be given by the EU itself and why would it do so, allowing free health care in any country in Europe if the UK, who we pay taxes to for, amongst other things healthcare, has not agreed to reimburse these costs. 

There was an open door to allow NI to enjoy that status but for reasons some people feel very strongly about that door was slammed closed.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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