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crazypabs

Moneyweek hoipes for a long continuous slowdown in House prices

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I love Moneyweek, but it's worth bearing in mind that they have been consistently wrong about property for the last decade.

Like every other paper, they write what their audience wants to hear.

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15 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

just found an interesting article.

https://moneyweek.com/lets-hope-the-gentle-slowdown-in-house-prices-continues-for-a-long-time/

Let’s hope the gentle slowdown in house prices continues for a long time until the canadian dummy clears off next year...then I think we will see the WORST House Price CRASH ...in living memory!

....:lol::lol::lol:

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I never by that line of slow long decline.

You either A overpay because in a few years you will be quids in due to rising prices.

or

You dont buy/bid less as its going to be worth less later on.

The latter translates into short selling of banks and home builders and less demand for housing debt.  which then rises the price of and/or lowers the taste for exposure to that sectors debt.

etc etc

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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Was in richmond yesterday and overheard a trio of early 30 somethings saying that they should wait buying a house there is a crash on the way. 😄

laughed all the way home. 

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Met a well to do Friend of my partner the other day. Lots of wealthy friends bought in central London 600k 1 bed flats. She said they were on 90% mortgages and are now in net equity. Quite amazed this is bigger news ??!

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12 minutes ago, longgone said:

Was in richmond yesterday and overheard a trio of early 30 somethings saying that they should wait buying a house there is a crash on the way. 😄

laughed all the way home. 

Good to hear but not my experience...I am driven mad at work by the constant drivel by 30 somethings talking about HTB and the need to buy before too late etc. Hopefully change in sentiment will spread fast...need strong headlines about meaningful falls.

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2 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Good to hear but not my experience...I am driven mad at work by the constant drivel by 30 somethings talking about HTB and the need to buy before too late etc. Hopefully change in sentiment will spread fast...need strong headlines about meaningful falls.

wait till they have a mortgage under their belt and the first redundancy brown pants moment.

a house will turn into a liability. 

i no longer care really my time was in 2008 to buy 

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A key support for current prices is the sense mania- greed and fear. Prolonged near static pricing removes this and requires folk to look very differently at the market. No mania, no missing of boats, no mads gainz ...This new more rational outlook and resultant behaviour will lead to price falls...

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5 minutes ago, longgone said:

wait till they have a mortgage under their belt and the first redundancy brown pants moment.

a house will turn into a liability. 

i no longer care really my time was in 2008 to buy 

Yes i have seen houses turn into horrible liabilities in the early 1990s and in 2008.

Are you saying you will never buy regardless of price? Why interest in prices and activity on this website? I can't imagine prices ever falling to a level I will be happy to buy. HMG has interwoven high house prices into The UK economy...perhaps we will see a crash but if we do the price of houses may become the least of our worries.

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5 hours ago, crazypabs said:

The problem with this, is once it becomes commonly accepted that House prices are in long term decline. Who is going to want to buy? Why would you buy an asset that guaranteed to lose you money in the long term?

much healthier to get the drop over and done with.

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3 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

The problem with this, is once it becomes commonly accepted that House prices are in long term decline. Who is going to want to buy? Why would you buy an asset that guaranteed to lose you money in the long term?

much healthier to get the drop over and done with.

There's no way to time the market. But, if you can buy a home for life, at sensible salary multiples, with manageable repayments (even with huge IR) then go for it. Oh and MTG must end at 65.

This won't suit everyone but IMHO not a bad rule of thumb.

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Oh I agree. But in London at least where current multiples are perhaps as much as 20x local  salaries for a 3 bed terrace, you can see how that could take decades to revert to 4.5x and if you did somehow manage to be able to afford something on the way down, there’s a fair chance it will have much further to fall. That money would prove more beneficial going into your SIPP/ISA stocks each month.

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3 hours ago, winkie said:

The economy is the housing market.;)

Interesting article in the times last week which discussed the impact of rising house prices on company owners who have used their houses as collateral for  business lending. At present higher house prices feed into more lending ...but drops might cause businesses to breach their covenants, potentially going bust. The article goes on to state that 3% of the increases in value of the owners home feeds through into wage increases... But that could be reversed in prices fall!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/owners-risk-it-all-when-they-bet-the-house-trflk36hb

'Nearly half of borrowing by small and medium-sized companies is secured against a director’s home, the Bank’s study has found.

Researchers discovered that the homes of these company directors were worth £1.5 trillion, ten times more than annual UK business investment.'

Edited by regprentice

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

Yes i have seen houses turn into horrible liabilities in the early 1990s and in 2008.

Are you saying you will never buy regardless of price? Why interest in prices and activity on this website? I can't imagine prices ever falling to a level I will be happy to buy. HMG has interwoven high house prices into The UK economy...perhaps we will see a crash but if we do the price of houses may become the least of our worries.

No just saying the amount of work required to live in frankley a Sh*t is not worth thinking about.  i am 40 now so i probably only have 20 odd years to pay for something should i be able to find some meaningful work in the first place, i doubt i will have any children so who would i give the fruits of my effort to anyway. 

probably best off with a cheap flat and no mortgage. 

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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