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New Statesman 04/18: Global recession around the corner

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Just found this - not sure if it's been posted before.

IMO nicely ties together / explains the current situation and its origins while making a rational argument for why we should expect it to all come crshing down soon enough..

Edited by ftb_fml
Link fixed

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12 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Didn't we slip into a permanent recession since 2007/8 anyway?

Correct, and not one of the neoliberal hacks at the New Statesman saw it coming.

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14 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Didn't we slip into a permanent recession since 2007/8 anyway?

We had one of those miracle recessions where for the first time in history we felt zero pain while going through it, our politicians and BOE were just out of this world.

Mind you it's a little worrying that interest rates cannot return to the norm and that public and private debt is now close to a total of £4 Trillion, but Hey! I am sure they knew what they were doing and there is no worries for the future

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7 hours ago, Big Orange said:

Didn't we slip into a permanent recession since 2007/8 anyway?

I think we will look back at the period betwen then and now as just a continuation of the collapse we saw back then.

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20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I think we will look back at the period betwen then and now as just a continuation of the collapse we saw back then.

Maybe but a lot of people have got alot richer during that 'collapse'.

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7 hours ago, inbruges said:

We had one of those miracle recessions where for the first time in history we felt zero pain while going through it, our politicians and BOE were just out of this world.

Mind you it's a little worrying that interest rates cannot return to the norm and that public and private debt is now close to a total of £4 Trillion, but Hey! I am sure they knew what they were doing and there is no worries for the future

Hello! You finally woken up after your accident in 2008. You have been asleep ten years! Pain? No of course you feel no pain we have been pumping you full of QEdamol. Well yes since you ask it certainly is toxic but we can't stop it unfortunately as you are addicted and would crash if we turned it off. Don't worry about anything we'll just keep the respirator going and something will turn up.  

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1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Hello! You finally woken up after your accident in 2008. You have been asleep ten years! Pain? No of course you feel no pain we have been pumping you full of QEdamol. Well yes since you ask it certainly is toxic but we can't stop it unfortunately as you are addicted and would crash if we turned it off. Don't worry about anything we'll just keep the respirator going and something will turn up.  

👏

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Big question is come Recession II, could we of had far less pain if we had taken it on the chin first time around.

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18 minutes ago, inbruges said:

Big question is come Recession II, could we of had far less pain if we had taken it on the chin first time around.

Short answer to big question is yes. :lol:

The shoddy tower now has further to fall 

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"The policymakers’ hope was that the rate of economic growth would catch up with the increase in asset valuations and debt, bringing the ratios of house prices, share prices and debt to GDP back into line with history."

I suppose saying "increasing asset valuations and debt were supposed to improve the real economy" would be making this absolute steaming pile of bullsh*t from the "policymakers" a little too obvious. So in other words: "Let them eat cake, we hoped they would eat more cake but they didn't, dunno what happened there".

"He (Mervyn King) pointed out that ever since China had opted decisively for a market economy and engagement with global trade and finance in the late 1990s, the centre of gravity of the global economy had been migrating inexorably east. An epochal shift in the distribution of real global wealth, productivity, and power was under way."

We need a kick up the *ss. Can't just keep economically w*nking over ourselves by printing money out of thin air and buying and selling land from each other, land which would still exist if humans didn't.

It's an open goal for china et al. I decided some years ago no to rely on the UK economy alone. I sell lots to India and last month got more sales in countries other than the US or UK but all are growing. Feels good bringing money in from overseas. What does a property speculator / BTL bring to the UK table or the trade deficit? F*ck all.

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22 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Just found this - not sure if it's been posted before.

IMO nicely ties together / explains the current situation and its origins while making a rational argument for why we should expect it to all come crshing down soon enough..

Define round the corner?

I cant see anything in the immediate future for the next 12 months.

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12 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

decided some years ago no to rely on the UK economy alone. I sell lots to India and last month got more sales in countries other than the US or UK but all are growing. Feels good bringing money in from overseas. What does a property speculator / BTL bring to the UK table or the trade deficit? F*ck all.

Intriguing care to share your story without giving the whole game away?

i decided dual citizenship was an invaluable tool in my armoury along with zero debt of course but always interested to hear how others are navigating and escaping :)

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14 hours ago, chronyx said:

Short answer to big question is yes. :lol:

The shoddy tower now has further to fall 

Agree 100%.   The powers-that-be were MORAL COWARDS --- they had their chance in 2008/9 -- and they bottled it totally.  They FAILED us.  They are total W*****s.

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9 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Intriguing care to share your story without giving the whole game away?

i decided dual citizenship was an invaluable tool in my armoury along with zero debt of course but always interested to hear how others are navigating and escaping :)

I would like dual citizenship; I just missed out on it as a kid. Would be great to have a second string to the bow option. Any tips welcome, which don't involve marrying anyone or handing over large sums. 

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10 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Intriguing care to share your story without giving the whole game away?

i decided dual citizenship was an invaluable tool in my armoury along with zero debt of course but always interested to hear how others are navigating and escaping :)

I write technical non-fiction from the same field as my £25 ph day job. Advantage of this is that I create the Intellectual copyright and the logistics is all set up through the industry. Technology is there, I take advantage of it. Christmas spike in sales for me actually counts as November, Dec, Jan and Feb.

Amazon, Ingram, Google Play, ScribD, iBooks, Wheelers, Kobo, Barnes and Noble, Overdrive, 24symbols, Ebooks.com, EBSCO, Gardners, Hoopla, Ingram, StoryTel, WF Howes and more. More than I'm aware of, e.g. Ingram just sells wholesale to any / all retailers anywhere on the planet. I don't know what Indian, German or Australian etc. retailers my books are being sold through. Ebay sellers are buying my stuff wholesale off Ingram too.

I have my own website too, but it (and therefore direct sales) have been "friendly google slapped" due to changing from html to php so it's re-familiarizing with it from the bottom again. I'm also on lots of affiliate channels. As soon as crypo becomes payment I'm sure I'll be accepting that via the EU VAT compliant giant I'm riding to facilitate sales on my own website.

None of the above is easy if you are playing straight and not gaming the system, it's actually very hard and takes years.

If the pound goes down I make more from non GBP sales. If the pound gets stronger I will make more on my savings I guess.

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On 03/06/2018 at 22:20, Arpeggio said:

"The policymakers’ hope was that the rate of economic growth would catch up with the increase in asset valuations and debt, bringing the ratios of house prices, share prices and debt to GDP back into line with history."

That's exactly what they hoped to do and failed, and now they are still saying that everything was planned and organised. You look at public services in 2018, nothing has not been effected by cutbacks, roads, transport, wages, NHS, the list is endless. But in their wisdom they thought the one thing we will allow to become more expensive and difficult to pay for with wage reductions is housing. One of these days someone will write that bestseller "The Greatest Ponzi scheme ever" where nobody knew it was happening at the time.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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