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I m suprised no one has mentioned the word SENTIMENT.

 

This is massively powerful - This is what causes bank runs and companies to collapse 

 

Its when joe public hears a rumour and accepts it and it becomes self fulfilling - Take the bank crisis - Everyone rushed to Northern Rock because sentiment turned sour 

 

I ve seen bad news about house prices in all the news for the last few weeks - Anyone thinking of buying will be put off  - Anyone thinking of selling will hurry up 

I start to think this is actually the time when HPC will happen and I know some people have been waiting for many years

 

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1 hour ago, Jack Kada said:

This is is massively powerful - This is what causes bank runs and companies to collapse 

BANK RUN?! Holy shit didn't know. Imma tell all my friends so we can get out in time! Thanks buddy.

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1 hour ago, Jack Kada said:

I m suprised no one has mentioned the word SENTIMENT.

They have Jack...it is monitored carefully.  HPI at the levels we have seen since say 2014 are only sustained by a sense of mania and fear of 'missing the boat', 'getting on the housing ladder before its too late' and other such nonsense...when that mania evaporates you have a crash.

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2 hours ago, Jack Kada said:

I m suprised no one has mentioned the word SENTIMENT.

What’s telling for me in London is the data shows the Autumn Budget stamp duty cut for FTBs has made absolutely zero difference to prices and transactions. It’s as if it never happened. 

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22 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

What’s telling for me in London is the data shows the Autumn Budget stamp duty cut for FTBs has made absolutely zero difference to prices and transactions. It’s as if it never happened

Another way to look at it is to contemplate how much lower prices might be by now IF that cut had never actually happened?

OR put yet another way, all the various market supporting gimmicks that HMG constantly puts in place are producing ever decreasing effects.

Edited by anonguest

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15 hours ago, Jack Kada said:

I ve seen bad news about house prices in all the news for the last few weeks - Anyone thinking of buying will be put off  - Anyone thinking of selling will hurry up  

I start to think this is actually the time when HPC will happen and I know some people have been waiting for many years

 

Once a house is paid for. the value of it is irrelevant from a mortgage POV, simply because there is no mortgage. 

Also, those who own their home outright (the majority of home owners) are somewhat isolated from housing shocks.

Because of this, the housing market is like a huge tanker - it takes a long time to turn (even if there has been a drastic change).

Even though house prices are ludicrously high, mortgage rates have made the monthly cost affordable to Joe public.

Those that took out a large mortgage 10 years ago took a huge risk, but that risk seemsto be paying off for them so far. If they haven't been stupid ("IR only" or re-mortgaged), there are 15 more years of low IR. Therafter the house will have been paid for at a historically low overall total cost for that 25 year period. ATM, this is a very powerful incentive for the vast majority to keep their house off the market.

 

 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Jack Kada said:

I m suprised no one has mentioned the word SENTIMENT.

 

This is massively powerful - This is what causes bank runs and companies to collapse 

 

Its when joe public hears a rumour and accepts it and it becomes self fulfilling - Take the bank crisis - Everyone rushed to Northern Rock because sentiment turned sour 

 

I ve seen bad news about house prices in all the news for the last few weeks - Anyone thinking of buying will be put off  - Anyone thinking of selling will hurry up 

I start to think this is actually the time when HPC will happen and I know some people have been waiting for many years

 

I think it has been mentioned once or twice on here over the years 🙂

Though I will grant you those that have talked about it and know about it which I would guess is 99% of this board will have zero feeling of what it truly feels like after all this time. It will be the same hysteria as the HPI monster we have all endured for the past 15 years, lovely🙂

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Comment from none other than an Estate Agent...

(http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-drop-in-almost-all-parts-of-the-uk-as-spring-in-housing-market-fails-to-appear/)

CRB1066

This is going to be worse than 2008…….We are at 0.5% interest rates, yet again the great British public have thrown caution to the wind and feasted on ‘free money’ for 9 years and now racked up the same, if not worse, consumer debt than 2008.This time though, there won’t be interest rates to balance the books.

Chuck in a good measure of Government Help to Buy, where, in essence the government helped people who should not be buying houses, to buy houses. Many are trying to re-mortgage but can’t and I’ve been advised on good authority that there is greater incident of mortgage default from people who bought with help to buy….Oh and its interest payment time on those first lot on loans this year…….which will rise year on year.

How, I MEAN HOW, could house price growth have been sustained at the ridiculous seen in the SE in the last 7 years? which has been fuelled by both factors above-HTB and interest rates.

I agree vendors need educating and I’m education mine, not that they want to listen, yet. Ultimately though, they are going to end up with less for their houses in 6 months than taking a hit on price now. I have had two incidents now in a month of lenders pulling mortgage offers as a ‘human being’ has picked up the applicants file (instead of the computer who said ‘yes) and deciding affordability is not there, last time this happened was, oh yes….2008.

Lets revisit this in a year and see where we are as I can see history repeating itself , but this time the bank of England or the government is going to have to pull more than loans to buy and low interest rates to save it…….Good agents survive crashes but my god this will be painful.

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15 hours ago, Wayward said:

They have Jack...it is monitored carefully.  HPI at the levels we have seen since say 2014 are only sustained by a sense of mania and fear of 'missing the boat', 'getting on the housing ladder before its too late' and other such nonsense...when that mania evaporates you have a crash.

Fear of Missing the Boat (FMB) has been replaced with Fear of Paying Too Much (FPTM) :D

 

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4 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Comment from none other than an Estate Agent...

(http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-drop-in-almost-all-parts-of-the-uk-as-spring-in-housing-market-fails-to-appear/)

CRB1066

This is going to be worse than 2008…….We are at 0.5% interest rates, yet again the great British public have thrown caution to the wind and feasted on ‘free money’ for 9 years and now racked up the same, if not worse, consumer debt than 2008.This time though, there won’t be interest rates to balance the books.

 Chuck in a good measure of Government Help to Buy, where, in essence the government helped people who should not be buying houses, to buy houses. Many are trying to re-mortgage but can’t and I’ve been advised on good authority that there is greater incident of mortgage default from people who bought with help to buy….Oh and its interest payment time on those first lot on loans this year…….which will rise year on year.

 How, I MEAN HOW, could house price growth have been sustained at the ridiculous seen in the SE in the last 7 years? which has been fuelled by both factors above-HTB and interest rates.

 I agree vendors need educating and I’m education mine, not that they want to listen, yet. Ultimately though, they are going to end up with less for their houses in 6 months than taking a hit on price now. I have had two incidents now in a month of lenders pulling mortgage offers as a ‘human being’ has picked up the applicants file (instead of the computer who said ‘yes) and deciding affordability is not there, last time this happened was, oh yes….2008.

 Lets revisit this in a year and see where we are as I can see history repeating itself , but this time the bank of England or the government is going to have to pull more than loans to buy and low interest rates to save it…….Good agents survive crashes but my god this will be painful.

This is one of the best posts I have seen for a very long time!

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35 minutes ago, Jack Kada said:

This is one of the best posts I have seen for a very long time!

Savour another EA's comments from the same story...

Dom_P

Having been in a property for the last four years I am desperate to move nearer to my job and family, but due to the changes in mortgage affordability rules I ‘can’t afford’ a lower monthly payment on a cheaper property. This is despite never missing a payment on my exisiting mortgage.

My options are either to downsize considerably (which isn’t really an option due to expanding family), or stay put, paying more than I need to on the mortgage itself and in travel costs.

In one year we need to factor in the interest from the HtB loan we took out, and suddenly we really are in a difficult position!

Crazy situation really.

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6 hours ago, rockerboy said:

Also, those who own their home outright (the majority of home owners) are somewhat isolated from housing shocks.

is that true? (assuming you're not taking the "you're renting off the bank whilst paying a mortgage so aren't really a home owner" line).

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I know the media have to create stories to keep themselves going, but im really surprised how much they are banging on about the drops - except the -3.1 Halifax announcement, there really hasnt been anything too major for hpi lovers to panic about. Poss a bit of stagnation is on the cards, whatever - so why panic and go on about the turn in the market so much? Either they know that crashes must follow unsustainable hpi, or want to raise the alarm so the govt steps in. Why not just ignore it for now, if they are worried about spreading the gloom? Can they not help themselves but write a sensationalist story that then becomes worsens the 'problem'? 

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On 24/05/2018 at 09:11, rantnrave said:

Comment from none other than an Estate Agent...

(http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-drop-in-almost-all-parts-of-the-uk-as-spring-in-housing-market-fails-to-appear/)

CRB1066

This is going to be worse than 2008…….We are at 0.5% interest rates, yet again the great British public have thrown caution to the wind and feasted on ‘free money’ for 9 years and now racked up the same, if not worse, consumer debt than 2008.This time though, there won’t be interest rates to balance the books.

Chuck in a good measure of Government Help to Buy, where, in essence the government helped people who should not be buying houses, to buy houses. Many are trying to re-mortgage but can’t and I’ve been advised on good authority that there is greater incident of mortgage default from people who bought with help to buy….Oh and its interest payment time on those first lot on loans this year…….which will rise year on year.

How, I MEAN HOW, could house price growth have been sustained at the ridiculous seen in the SE in the last 7 years? which has been fuelled by both factors above-HTB and interest rates.

I agree vendors need educating and I’m education mine, not that they want to listen, yet. Ultimately though, they are going to end up with less for their houses in 6 months than taking a hit on price now. I have had two incidents now in a month of lenders pulling mortgage offers as a ‘human being’ has picked up the applicants file (instead of the computer who said ‘yes) and deciding affordability is not there, last time this happened was, oh yes….2008.

Lets revisit this in a year and see where we are as I can see history repeating itself , but this time the bank of England or the government is going to have to pull more than loans to buy and low interest rates to save it…….Good agents survive crashes but my god this will be painful.

That really is something☺️

We usually get a spring bounce which hasn't really happened this year so maybe things will kick off in the summer (when it's a bit dead most years with everyone away on their hols) or autumn which is the usual time of year for any economic woes if there are going to be any.  I say woes but from HPC POV obviously I mean glee.  Autumn could be when the everything bubble pops...........let's hope so😊

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On 24/05/2018 at 09:11, rantnrave said:

Comment from none other than an Estate Agent...

(http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-drop-in-almost-all-parts-of-the-uk-as-spring-in-housing-market-fails-to-appear/)

CRB1066

Chuck in a good measure of Government Help to Buy, where, in essence the government helped people who should not be buying houses, to buy houses. Many are trying to re-mortgage but can’t and I’ve been advised on good authority that there is greater incident of mortgage default from people who bought with help to buy….Oh and its interest payment time on those first lot on loans this year…….which will rise year on year.

This.

I know of mortgage brokers advising people with an impaired credit history unable to secure a mortgage on a non new build, to buy using HTB instead. Of course banks will lend, FTB takes the hit on the 5% deposit and taxpayers the next 20% or 40% in London. It's a bank bailout promised in advance for loans they shouldn't be making.

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39 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This.

I know of mortgage brokers advising people with an impaired credit history unable to secure a mortgage on a non new build, to buy using HTB instead. Of course banks will lend, FTB takes the hit on the 5% deposit and taxpayers the next 20% or 40% in London. It's a bank bailout promised in advance for loans they shouldn't be making.

If the bubble does eventually burst, people will look back at this recklessness in regards to housing with disbelief. 

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On 24/05/2018 at 08:11, rantnrave said:

Comment from none other than an Estate Agent...

(http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-drop-in-almost-all-parts-of-the-uk-as-spring-in-housing-market-fails-to-appear/)

CRB1066

This is going to be worse than 2008…….We are at 0.5% interest rates, yet again the great British public have thrown caution to the wind and feasted on ‘free money’ for 9 years and now racked up the same, if not worse, consumer debt than 2008.This time though, there won’t be interest rates to balance the books.

Chuck in a good measure of Government Help to Buy, where, in essence the government helped people who should not be buying houses, to buy houses. Many are trying to re-mortgage but can’t and I’ve been advised on good authority that there is greater incident of mortgage default from people who bought with help to buy….Oh and its interest payment time on those first lot on loans this year…….which will rise year on year.

How, I MEAN HOW, could house price growth have been sustained at the ridiculous seen in the SE in the last 7 years? which has been fuelled by both factors above-HTB and interest rates.

I agree vendors need educating and I’m education mine, not that they want to listen, yet. Ultimately though, they are going to end up with less for their houses in 6 months than taking a hit on price now. I have had two incidents now in a month of lenders pulling mortgage offers as a ‘human being’ has picked up the applicants file (instead of the computer who said ‘yes) and deciding affordability is not there, last time this happened was, oh yes….2008.

Lets revisit this in a year and see where we are as I can see history repeating itself , but this time the bank of England or the government is going to have to pull more than loans to buy and low interest rates to save it…….Good agents survive crashes but my god this will be painful.

tumblr_mpkxahfEgE1rsxo3uo1_250.gif

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On 24/05/2018 at 13:27, Riedquat said:

is that true? (assuming you're not taking the "you're renting off the bank whilst paying a mortgage so aren't really a home owner" line).

It is to be fair.

If you own outright with no debt and no mortgage, you're insulated from most economic shocks regarding house prices. I say most. I mean, your surrounding area could become unlivable due to social deprivation, planning orders, something being built next to you, neighbors from hell etc.

Edited by Tapori

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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