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warrior88

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21 minutes ago, bomberbrown said:

Ripple effect from London outwards in a year or so’s time?

So with the most RICS negative outlook and price falls, world is good :)

I would like to see falls of 10% or above to celebrate.

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28 minutes ago, bomberbrown said:

Ripple effect from London outwards in a year or so’s time?

I think in 2007/8 it took about a year to ripple out of London.  However, London has already been dropping for about a year, if not a bit more.  I’m hoping we should start to see some drops by the end of the summer.  

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43 minutes ago, bomberbrown said:

Ripple effect from London outwards in a year or so’s time?

Happening now AFAICT.

 

Harpendown and St Falbans are toast.

MK and Luton Struggling.


Saw a 300K drop in Northants last week.

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Orpington/Bromley area definitely struggling. 

 

The very small market I'm looking at actually has houses listed for sale that are lower than prices achieved last year (plus a couple of kite flyers at last years prices + 150k, for a worse house...).

Even the cheaper houses haven't been flying off the shelves either - a couple have been on for a two months now at the lower prices, with another few listed at "sensible" (compared to last year) prices being listed in May.

 

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1 minute ago, Henrik said:

Orpington/Bromley area definitely struggling. 

 

The very small market I'm looking at actually has houses listed for sale that are lower than prices achieved last year (plus a couple of kite flyers at last years prices + 150k, for a worse house...).

Even the cheaper houses haven't been flying off the shelves either - a couple have been on for a two months now at the lower prices, with another few listed at "sensible" (compared to last year) prices being listed in May.

 

Still plenty of kite flying in south manchester.  I’m waiting for the completed sales to show up on the land registry so I can compare asking with sold.

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1 minute ago, Mancunian284 said:

Still plenty of kite flying in south manchester.  I’m waiting for the completed sales to show up on the land registry so I can compare asking with sold.

It will happen up there too eventually.

 

People are broke as <expletive> and most are in debt (at least most of the people I know down here), and I don't think there will be much difference in "brokeness factor" around the country tbh - just the levels of debt people are in might be different (because different areas have different wages, so people can service a different amount of debt).

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17 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Happening now AFAICT.

 

Harpendown and St Falbans are toast.

MK and Luton Struggling.


Saw a 300K drop in Northants last week.

I wouldn't say Luton is struggling yet , have seen some reductions but plenty still selling , new EA offices opening .Luton is still picking up the London people moving out or london workers just deciding to commute from further away.

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1 hour ago, Timbuk3 said:

People selling up in London and moving out to the sticks to retire ?

People being stabbed and buried ...

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23 minutes ago, Henrik said:

It will happen up there too eventually.

 

People are broke as <expletive> and most are in debt (at least most of the people I know down here), and I don't think there will be much difference in "brokeness factor" around the country tbh - just the levels of debt people are in might be different (because different areas have different wages, so people can service a different amount of debt).

I’d be surprised if people are paying asking.  Think we may be back to 10% off asking which would mean purchase prices are about the same as this time last year.  Won’t know for sure until they complete and show on the land registry.

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5 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

I’d be surprised if people are paying asking.  Think we may be back to 10% off asking which would mean purchase prices are about the same as this time last year.  Won’t know for sure until they complete and show on the land registry.

More than 10%, off, that would explain why ONS/Land registry is less than Rightmove index for example.

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34 minutes ago, warrior88 said:

So back in late 2014, when my brother was trying to buy a house he made an offer of 360K on the below property which eventually sold for 400K. Its back in the market for asking over 550K. Real test of London prices for me will be this example to see where it actually lands.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64883080.html


 

Nice, right on top of the A12.  Fumes....

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3 hours ago, warrior88 said:

Rest of UK (excluding London), growth of 3%.

Looks like changes to welsh SDLT may have brought purchases over 180K forward, perhaps contributing to that rise?

It certainly will have propped up already weak volumes.

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Rescind A50 and you'll see London boom by double digits overnight.

UK gov is term based and as such know about the risk of a forthcoming election to their cushty positions.

Turkeys... Christmas... innit.

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Fred Harrison is going to be right as usual. 2018/19 is going to be a recession at most. End of cycle crash will not happen until mid-2020s. I wonder if anyone will still be posting at that point.

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1 hour ago, warrior88 said:

So back in late 2014, when my brother was trying to buy a house he made an offer of 360K on the below property which eventually sold for 400K. Its back in the market for asking over 550K. Real test of London prices for me will be this example to see where it actually lands.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64883080.html


 

Yeah, but you get a dwarf toilet thrown in for the extra 150k.

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2 hours ago, warrior88 said:

So back in late 2014, when my brother was trying to buy a house he made an offer of 360K on the below property which eventually sold for 400K. Its back in the market for asking over 550K. Real test of London prices for me will be this example to see where it actually lands.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64883080.html


 

Not the best property to track for drops based on the Acadata information, that is one of the few areas that seem to still be growing in London.

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2 hours ago, Mancunian284 said:

I’d be surprised if people are paying asking.  Think we may be back to 10% off asking which would mean purchase prices are about the same as this time last year.  Won’t know for sure until they complete and show on the land registry.

Hmm, yes, good point. 

It'd be nice to see some data of how far under asking price a property eventually sells for... I suspect it could be constructed from comparing rightmove data vs land registry data (unless such a data set already exists).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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