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Simhadri

Interest rates could stay at rock bottom for another decade

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According to the article the UK debt mountain will be bailed by UK savers in their fifties and sixties. Not saying it is right."Desperate savings", creating a " cash glut". Better import some young eager debtors from Eastern Europe  quick.

Edited by crashmonitor

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6 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

According to the article the UK debt mountain will be bailed by UK savers in their fifties and sixties. Not saying it is right."Desperate savings", creating a " cash glut". Better import some young eager debtors from Eastern Europe  quick.

Ah, fair play.

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Extract...

"In much of Europe Berenberg predicts state pension provision will have to be cut by around 30pc per person in the coming decades to make the retirement benefits affordable.

Britain should be less affected, however, as the state pension is relatively low in the UK and the demographic shift is less severe."

More immigration needed.  Then more immigration when they age and so on until......???

 

 

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The paradox of thrift...if I remember correctly more saving may lead to recession.  Seems far fetched to me to believe that saving will increase dramatically...the boomers will spend their unearned and untaxed wealth on cruises and fine dining.

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7 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Extract...

"In much of Europe Berenberg predicts state pension provision will have to be cut by around 30pc per person in the coming decades to make the retirement benefits affordable.

Britain should be less affected, however, as the state pension is relatively low in the UK and the demographic shift is less severe."

More immigration needed.  Then more immigration when they age and so on until......???

 

 

Got that wrong.

The state pension probably needs limited tweaks.

However the public sector ones need massive reworking.

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5 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Extract...

"In much of Europe Berenberg predicts state pension provision will have to be cut by around 30pc per person in the coming decades to make the retirement benefits affordable.

Britain should be less affected, however, as the state pension is relatively low in the UK and the demographic shift is less severe."

More immigration needed.  Then more immigration when they age and so on until......???

 

 

Whatever the problem the solution is always more immigration. It's an article of faith for the Neoliberal Thought Collective.

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The government sets interest rates and is in extreme debt. They will never raise rates whilst the market allows them to simply print money to keep rates low. Who knows how long they can get away with it. I thought the game would be well up by now, but here we are.

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6 minutes ago, Wayward said:

The paradox of thrift...if I remember correctly more saving may lead to recession.  Seems far fetched to me to believe that saving will increase dramatically...the boomers will spend their unearned and untaxed wealth on cruises and fine dining.

They’ve worked hard for it, and deserve every penny...

 

di_05812.jpg

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Carney is not going to raise interest rates until we get a good solid sound UK economy, so in other words he never was and never will raise rates given the choice. But then it's only a matter of time before events will take control out of his hands and local/world events will force a change.

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3 hours ago, Simhadri said:

Yes probably for another 2 decades, it is quite possible.

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Two interest rate rises in 2018, followed by a further two interest rate rises in 2019 at the Bank of England are forecast to propel the British Pound higher against both the Euro and US Dollar say economists at independent advisory Capital Economics.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/9090-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-capital-economics-two-interest-rate-rises

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atm, bofe interest rates are going nowhere fast, but that doesn't mean borrowing would be a smart thing to do......like bofe base rates have had no correlation to where savings rates have gone, lower, it will have no correlation with where debt costs will go, higher......nothing is connected any longer....base rate is linked to where sterling fits with the rest of the world though.....that in a global society is where real interest should be focused.;)

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

They have to rise them to at least 0.5% over what the FED offers.

 

 

Next week's CPI figures should show an inflation increase, as the pound drift lower. 

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3 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

There are several reasons why, however, the BIG one is... well.. the UK's energy infrastructure roadmap ensures it will be low... forever.

No surprises there.

Could you please explain this?

I would've thought UK energy costs will increase due to lack of investment and be a significant inflationary pressure which would inexorably lead to rate rises. Your point seems counter to that, but I'm not sure if I've interpreted it correctly?

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lol, err they can predict all this like they predicted the financial crisis can they.

 

Anyway, I am a self appointed economics expert and my complex mathematical model says interest rates could go up or down or stay the same.

I read some bit of invaluable information from the banks brightest brains that highly indebted people spent less after the financial crisis and therefore need to be loaned more cash.

its called the BOE clueless thread for a reason.

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Japan has proved that rates can indeed stay low for an inexplicably long period, I factored this in after 2008 and don’t expect much upward trajectory anytime soon.

if as suggested in the article the near retirees are saving more with interest rates likely to,offer no return it’s potentially possible it will be ploughed into the housing market increasing prices further as more amateur landlords are enticed into something different where prices only ever go up :))

In addition the fact we have way too much debt is going to outweigh the obvious need to attempt to normalise rates, which, has put us in a right mess.

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19 minutes ago, azal777 said:

Japan has proved that rates can indeed stay low for an inexplicably long period, I factored this in after 2008 and don’t expect much upward trajectory anytime soon.

if as suggested in the article the near retirees are saving more with interest rates likely to,offer no return it’s potentially possible it will be ploughed into the housing market increasing prices further as more amateur landlords are enticed into something different where prices only ever go up :))

In addition the fact we have way too much debt is going to outweigh the obvious need to attempt to normalise rates, which, has put us in a right mess.

My price falls bring all the trolls to the yard.

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27 minutes ago, azal777 said:

Japan has proved that rates can indeed stay low for an inexplicably long period, I factored this in after 2008 and don’t expect much upward trajectory anytime soon.

if as suggested in the article the near retirees are saving more with interest rates likely to,offer no return it’s potentially possible it will be ploughed into the housing market increasing prices further as more amateur landlords are enticed into something different where prices only ever go up :))

In addition the fact we have way too much debt is going to outweigh the obvious need to attempt to normalise rates, which, has put us in a right mess.

Didnt japan show that, apart from uber central Tokyo, that property fell 70%, even with zilch rates.

Im a long way from near retiree. I dont save cash for my pension.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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