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Most meaningless HPI indicator: Rightmove

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Agreed. 

But even than the volatility you identify, it's the huge disparity between Rightmove prices and the actual selling prices. 

Rightmove should be recognised for what it is - an asking price survey, not an actual house price.

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26 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Agreed. 

But even than the volatility you identify, it's the huge disparity between Rightmove prices and the actual selling prices. 

Rightmove should be recognised for what it is - an asking price survey, not an actual house price.

I recall @FreeTrader pointing out that the difference in the level was due to one Rightmove being an arithmetic mean whereas the ONS is a geometric mean.

Quote

LSL Acadata and Rightmove publish based on an (weighted) arithmetic mean, whilst the UK HPI publishes based on a (weighted) geometric mean. This implies estimates of average house prices for LSL Acadata and Rightmove will be higher than those of the UK HPI.

 Source

But the key point stands, the Rightmove index is pretty useless.

Edited by Beary McBearface

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I agree with many people on their dislike of Rightmove data, but if they start releasing big falls month on month then I will take that 🙂

The only thing I care about is sentiment, real embedded negative sentiment that will be a bugger to reverse once started which no amount of tinkering can then stop. 

I mentioned the other day that I have a feeling about this Mondays coming Rightmove data, yes I have been wrong before 🙂 , but even if rigged they are going to look foolish soon with showing whats happening in the real housing market. And I know plenty of scumbag long term BTL landlords who are now getting twitchy with a view that I haven't  come this far to lose it all now. I have no evidence of this and bare in mind I am one of the more cynical posters when it comes to so called property crash triggers.

The one joy I am looking forward with these elite superior thinking BTL landlords is how some think they can read the market top and think "I will just get out now at top price", just does not work when too many others think the same, I am really hoping that "catching a falling knife" becomes a more common phrase on here soon.

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What I do love Rightmove for, in conjunction with Property Tracker for Chrome, is really closely tracking specific areas I'm interested in, adding reductions and deleting sold/withdrawn  properties daily and seeing how things move, or not. Early on my favourites list was hovering around 50, with listings and sales fairly balanced. Now it's at 235. Been very cathartic in a way to see things slowing through this, rather than pushing back what media sources or other people boast. Lots of relisting trickery going on too.

Edited by Barnsey

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47 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What I do love Rightmove for, in conjunction with Property Tracker for Chrome, is really closely tracking specific areas I'm interested in, adding reductions and deleting sold/withdrawn  properties daily and seeing how things move, or not. Early on my favourites list was hovering around 50, with listings and sales fairly balanced. Now it's at 235. Been very cathartic in a way to see things slowing through this, rather than pushing back what media sources or other people boast. Lots of relisting trickery going on too.

What's the percentage SSTC in that area, must be low?

My local area is 36% SSTC but I'd much prefer it to be under 20%!

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39 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's the percentage SSTC in that area, must be low?

My local area is 36% SSTC but I'd much prefer it to be under 20%!

Thing is, many of the STC listings have reappeared 2-3 months later back up for sale at the same or a reduced price, so there's something afoot! This is Berkshire.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Thing is, many of the STC listings have reappeared 2-3 months later back up for sale at the same or a reduced price, so there's something afoot! This is Berkshire.

The SSTC percentage isn't an exact science because lots of houses will be listed more than once but it's a guide. I've just done Berkshire and it's 12,729 inc SSTC and 7986 not inc SSTC so 4743 37% SSTC. Obviously that's the whole area and any type of house at any price, might be lower for specific requirements.

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My favourite way to get some kind of picture as to what's going on is to do a RM search on the past 7 days inc SSTC in several locations more or less along the M4 corridor. This shows new listings for the past 7 days but also includes those properties which have been reduced in the past 7 days.

Allowing for the double entries (and those annoying ones which are for over 60s) I love it when the proportion of reductions is around 50% which it is today for Wokingham.  The prices are still ludicrous but at least they are slowly sinking.  I also love it when some of the new-builds are reduced which they have been in the SE.

By this method I now think the reductions are hitting Wilts which has been immune until now.

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8 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Agreed. 

But even than the volatility you identify, it's the huge disparity between Rightmove prices and the actual selling prices. 

Rightmove should be recognised for what it is - an asking price survey, not an actual house price.

This. It's not "useless" it simply shows something different.

If it reflected only sold prices then it would be useless because it would surely mirror the Land Registry, so what would be the point.

ATM it is largely reflective of initial seller/ea sentiment. If it continues to go up then it tells you there is no feeling among sellers or eas of capitulation.

It's probably the best indicator for a crash, in the respect it will be the last index to turn strongly negative. If new listings are coming on the market down then it tells you sellers expectations are reducing without experience of the market beating some sense into them.

It would be nice to have some addition information, like for example on reductions.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, janch said:

My favourite way to get some kind of picture as to what's going on is to do a RM search on the past 7 days inc SSTC in several locations more or less along the M4 corridor. This shows new listings for the past 7 days but also includes those properties which have been reduced in the past 7 days.

Allowing for the double entries (and those annoying ones which are for over 60s) I love it when the proportion of reductions is around 50% which it is today for Wokingham.  The prices are still ludicrous but at least they are slowly sinking.  I also love it when some of the new-builds are reduced which they have been in the SE.

By this method I now think the reductions are hitting Wilts which has been immune until now.

If you use the Filter, Don't Show, Retirement Homes won't that knock the over 60 ones out?

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Rightmove doesn't set house sale prices, estate agents do. Estate Agents are responsible for setting updating and removing prices as the purchase cycle completes. Unscrupulous estate agents sometimes operate outside of the law, placing sold properties on the site as a means to draw prospective buyers into their web.  

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3 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

Rightmove doesn't set house sale prices, estate agents do. Estate Agents are responsible for setting updating and removing prices as the purchase cycle completes. Unscrupulous estate agents sometimes operate outside of the law, placing sold properties on the site as a means to draw prospective buyers into their web.  

Bit pedantic perhaps, but a key point. Estate agents propose asking prices. Vendors then go with a particular estate agents, informed in part by the proposed asking price, and that choice by the vendor sets the asking price.

Transactions occur when buyers agree prices with vendors.

Transactions set prices.

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9 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

Bit pedantic perhaps, but a key point. Estate agents propose asking prices. Vendors then go with a particular estate agents, informed in part by the proposed asking price, and that choice by the vendor sets the asking price.

Transactions occur when buyers agree prices with vendors.

Transactions set prices.

I think it is worth adding that the agents I have experienced have to balance a high initial asking price to get the instruction against the fact that too high an asking price will not sell and also tip the sellers expectations into the unreasonable so they can't be negotiated downwards to close a deal. Because ea contracts will typically be exclusive for a few months or so, if they do not sell during that time period then they may well lose the instruction to some other agent after the contract finishes, so it's not totally in their interests to push their quotes into silly territory.

Obviously the RM index is not a good indication of transaction price, but if you want that you go to the LR. I think it is a good reflection of seller/ea sentiment though.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I think it is worth adding that the agents I have experienced have to balance a high initial asking price to get the instruction against the fact that too high an asking price will not sell and also tip the sellers expectations into the unreasonable so they can't be negotiated downwards to close a deal. Because ea contracts will typically be exclusive for a few months or so, if they do not sell during that time period then they may well lose the instruction to some other agent after the contract finishes, so it's not totally in their interests to push their quotes into silly territory.

Obviously the RM index is not a good indication of transaction price, but if you want that you go to the LR. I think it is a good reflection of seller/ea sentiment though.

 

 

Why doesn't the government validate whats being published, factual information like this is being used to generate sentiment, especially when the going is good... "Look how successful our country is..."

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20 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you use the Filter, Don't Show, Retirement Homes won't that knock the over 60 ones out?

No because the double entries are for ordinary homes but are shown with a separate listing at a lower price because they are being sold by a company which offers them in a scheme which would seem to be like a type of equity release.  They are not necessarily retirement homes.

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41 minutes ago, janch said:

No because the double entries are for ordinary homes but are shown with a separate listing at a lower price because they are being sold by a company which offers them in a scheme which would seem to be like a type of equity release.  They are not necessarily retirement homes.

If I do Wokingham last 7 days inc SSTC it finds 94. If I do don't show retirement it finds 81. In the 94 the 821,700 property is an over 60 but it isn't found in the 81.

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1 hour ago, janch said:

I mean ones like this:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65361955.html

The same property appears further down the page at a lower price:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54427680.html

There are loads like this in the SE of all price ranges and property types

I understand what type of over 60's properties you mean.

That property (and the 821,700) shows up in this search

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E9944&maxBedrooms=5&minBedrooms=5&maxDaysSinceAdded=7&includeSSTC=true

They don't duplicate if selecting don't show retirement (the 821,700 doesn't appear at all)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E9944&maxBedrooms=5&minBedrooms=5&maxDaysSinceAdded=7&includeSSTC=true&dontShow=retirement

I thought those properties showing up was annoying you. I must have the wrong end of the stick!

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Property lion data base says RM index is down 0.3% for properties under £1M in the last month.

£311896->£310967

Looking at the top end falling fast so would expect a RM fall this month.

I am hoping the 3 month figure will be a better indication, though it wont be available for 2 more months.

 

So, property lion prediction for RM index is DOWN.

Lets see how accurate that is.

 

 

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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