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Oliver Sutton

Large Rise in Claimant Count

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Up over 31K in a month.

Largest rise since August 2011.

Nobody seems bothered by it and are concentrating on the largest number of people employed since records began and how wages are above inflation for the first time in a year.

Productivity dropped by 0.5% in the last quarter as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/15/uk-employment-record-economic-growth-pay-interest-rate-rise

“Indeed, employment rose by a whopping 197,000 in the three months to March, well above the consensus expectations of a 130,000 rise and the biggest quarterly rise since the end of 2015. This left the annual rate of employment growth at a solid 1.2%.”

Is it a meaningless stat?

 

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11 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Up over 31K in a month.

Largest rise since August 2011.

Nobody seems bothered by it and are concentrating on the largest number of people employed since records began and how wages are above inflation for the first time in a year.

Productivity dropped by 0.5% in the last quarter as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/15/uk-employment-record-economic-growth-pay-interest-rate-rise

“Indeed, employment rose by a whopping 197,000 in the three months to March, well above the consensus expectations of a 130,000 rise and the biggest quarterly rise since the end of 2015. This left the annual rate of employment growth at a solid 1.2%.”

Is it a meaningless stat?

 

What I just cannot work out, and more so when the "miracle economy" as at full steam, why the f*** is our welfare bill so high if things are so great in the UK?

I will dig out the figures later

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5 minutes ago, inbruges said:

What I just cannot work out, and more so when the "miracle economy" as at full steam, why the f*** is our welfare bill so high if things are so great in the UK?

I will dig out the figures later

Because a lot of jobs have 3 people working 14 hours a week rather than 1 person working 35 hours.

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3 minutes ago, Houdini said:

Because a lot of jobs have 3 people working 14 hours a week rather than 1 person working 35 hours.

I am sure there is a lot of that involved and more. Yes a GOOD home once probably needed 40 hours of work to pay for it, now 100 hour plus assisted with welfare will get you a dump.

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24 minutes ago, inbruges said:

What I just cannot work out, and more so when the "miracle economy" as at full steam, why the f*** is our welfare bill so high if things are so great in the UK?

I will dig out the figures later

Tax Credits?

Nail bars etc with people working 16 hours a week producing  very little of worth.

UK fast becoming an economy based on people taking other people's washing in.

 

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1 hour ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Up over 31K in a month.

Largest rise since August 2011.

Nobody seems bothered by it and are concentrating on the largest number of people employed since records began and how wages are above inflation for the first time in a year.

Productivity dropped by 0.5% in the last quarter as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/15/uk-employment-record-economic-growth-pay-interest-rate-rise

“Indeed, employment rose by a whopping 197,000 in the three months to March, well above the consensus expectations of a 130,000 rise and the biggest quarterly rise since the end of 2015. This left the annual rate of employment growth at a solid 1.2%.”

Is it a meaningless stat?

 

No, its pointless.

The only stat you need to know are:

- How many people are employed (receive all or 50%+ of their income from) by UKGOV

- How many working age people receive  more than 30% of their income in benefits?

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Interesting stat btw:

  • The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 81.9% for EU nationals, higher than that for UK nationals (75.6%) and higher than that for non-EU nationals (63.0%)

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It matters because the likes of the IoD, CBI, the NIESR etc. use the phoney made up numbers to demand a relaxation of the immigration rules and let in even more debt mules from Eastern Europe.

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No idea why these employment figures are being heralded so much as a sign of a strong economy.

Literally millions are being effectively paid by the government thru tax credits to do fück all of real use. That's why the productivity figures are so bad,

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13 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

No idea why these employment figures are being heralded so much as a sign of a strong economy.

Literally millions are being effectively paid by the government thru tax credits to do fück all of real use. That's why the productivity figures are so bad,

It gets wrose

Shaun Richards

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2018/05/15/uk-real-wages-fell-again-in-march/

'UK Real Wages

In the rather odd world of Mark Carney and the Bank of England those are excellent figures especially if you look at the March figures alone which showed 3% growth on a year before. Let us continue on that sort of theme for a moment.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

This has been copied and pasted across the media as showing real wage growth yet that is somewhat misleading. This is because if you actually look at what people get in they pay packets March actually showed a slowing to an annual rate of 2.3%. Now at absolute best the UK inflation rate was 2.3% according to the CPIH measure but that of course relies on imputed rents to bring it down from the 2.5% of CPI and is lower than the 3.3% of the RPI. According to the official data which you have to look up as it is not ready for copy and pasting real wages fell by 0.1% on the most friendly measure which is using CPIH.

Let me put this another way UK single month wage growth has now gone 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.6% and now 2.3%. I will not insult you by pointing out the trend here but will show you how this is being reported with the one strand of hope being that February has been revised up by 0.3% and fingers crossed for March on that front. From @katie_martin_fx

ING: “Rising UK wage growth points to summer rate hike”

Meanwhile the back picture is along the lines of this.

But the big picture on pay is that
real average earnings remain £14 a week – or £730 a year – lower than they were a decade ago
pic.twitter.com/hOoqOFGxBZ

— ResolutionFoundation (@resfoundation) May 15, 2018

 

Actually it is worse than that in the longer-term because for some reason they use an inflation measure with imputed rents in it ( CPIH) which lowers the numbers. Secondly they are using regular pay which as I have explained above flatters wage growth at the moment.'

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Article in DM today (sorry cannot bother link) saying everything is great, employment figures wonderful, etc. Hundreds of comments saying yeah right rubbish jobs on zero hours, fake news, massaged numbers. A few trying to defend story on usual grounds "stop being negative and running Britain down" but 95% of commenters are very anti. Surprised me in fact I thought DM readers were more easily fooled.

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10 hours ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Up over 31K in a month.

Largest rise since August 2011.

Nobody seems bothered by it and are concentrating on the largest number of people employed since records began and how wages are above inflation for the first time in a year.

Productivity dropped by 0.5% in the last quarter as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/15/uk-employment-record-economic-growth-pay-interest-rate-rise

“Indeed, employment rose by a whopping 197,000 in the three months to March, well above the consensus expectations of a 130,000 rise and the biggest quarterly rise since the end of 2015. This left the annual rate of employment growth at a solid 1.2%.”

Is it a meaningless stat?

 

I suspect a lot of it is due to the 'Minimum Income Floor' of Uc cutting off s/e workers with variable incomes (genuine & dodgy alike ) . So they have to become unemployed.

 Universal credit ‘penalises the self-employed’ report warns

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/29/universal-credit-penalises-the-self-employed-report-warns

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Hundreds of comments saying yeah right rubbish jobs on zero hours, fake news, massaged numbers. A few trying to defend story on usual grounds "stop being negative and running Britain down" but 95% of commenters are very anti. Surprised me in fact I thought DM readers were more easily fooled.

Commenters are obviously Russian trolls.

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The one I hate more than any is housing benefit, all £36 Billion of it per year, given out on record to help those poor struggling families to have a roof over their head, the reality is that money finds it's way into the wealthiest pockets in the UK

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1 hour ago, inbruges said:

The one I hate more than any is housing benefit, all £36 Billion of it per year, given out on record to help those poor struggling families to have a roof over their head, the reality is that money finds it's way into the wealthiest pockets in the UK

I have to agree with you on this.  About eight or nine years ago I was shocked to discover a colleague of mine on around £29,000 was getting housing benefit.  In my naivety, I never realised until then that full time workers on above average salaries could get any help with housing costs - its bloody ridiculous and all it does is drive rents up.

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34 minutes ago, dougless said:

About eight or nine years ago I was shocked to discover a colleague of mine on around £29,000 was getting housing benefit.

How is that even possible?

I was told by a friend who lives in Peterborough about one large certain group/community shall we say, sorry for the euphemisms, but do not want to be branded anything anti PC.On a big scale they own homes and  rent them out to each other in complicated ways and so many of them are claiming HB when they are all living under the roof of a family member. One of them was caught out taxi driving in the process of having a house he just brought rewired when a mate of mine saw a welfare payment addressed to him posted while he was living somewhere else.

So many times I am told these days "that's the way it is", even have a preachy school teacher relative whose thick lazy daughter used a pregnancy to leap up the housing queue after adding a few lies, Mum threw her out on the street etc. I just hate the UK system, cannot believe we have someone like Corbyn trying to make the country more left wing than it already is.

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2 hours ago, inbruges said:

How is that even possible?

I just hate the UK system, cannot believe we have someone like Corbyn trying to make the country more left wing than it already is.

How is organised benefit fraud and individual feckless behaviour "left wing"?

Also can't see your point, why you think Jeremy Corbyn somehow would amplify  it. 

Don't disagree with your basic message but you do sound like Americans when they use the word "liberal" as a catch-all word meaning behavior they don't like. There's nothing left wing about the people you describe. 

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3 hours ago, inbruges said:

How is that even possible?

 

It surprised me as well!  She was a separated mother with three children who were School age at the time.  She was renting a house that cost around £1100 a month and because of her commitments etc. she received about £100-150 per month Housing Benefit.  She was an excellent member of staff and when she was offered a small promotion/pay rise she had to turn it down as she would have been worse off.  Its all completely bonkers.

I don't resent the fact she was able to claim this, and by all accounts it was a real pain re paperwork etc. but that subsidy, albeit fairly small, is what is helping to prop up ridiculous rents (and house prices).

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3 hours ago, inbruges said:

I just hate the UK system, cannot believe we have someone like Corbyn trying to make the country more left wing than it already is.

Yes, the problem with the world today is too much socialism.

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5 hours ago, inbruges said:

The one I hate more than any is housing benefit, all £36 Billion of it per year, given out on record to help those poor struggling families to have a roof over their head, the reality is that money finds it's way into the wealthiest pockets in the UK

If housing benefit was scrapped, landlords would have to charge what people can actually afford. A similar effect has taken place in university fees, the student loans simply drive up the price.

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36 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

Yes, the problem with the world today is too much socialism.

Please don't confuse the Labour Party with Socialism.  I would say the problem with the UK today is too little proper Socialism.  The only Socialism we seem to have benefits the wealthy more than the less wealthy.

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I was also suprised when I looked at the poor data on ForexFactory how the TV news channels  never mentioned the large rise is claimant, concentrating on wage grwoth and painting a rosy picure.

BTW UK GDP makes up 4% of World GDP and UK welfare 7%. Unsustainable - will lead ultimately to £ crisis. When a single mum who never worked get a susidised council house worht 450K in Guildford where I ived and so too her daughters when they started popping out kides at 16 (total about housing = 1.5 million) you know the UK is screwed long term

 

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3 minutes ago, dougless said:

Please don't confuse the Labour Party with Socialism.  I would say the problem with the UK today is too little proper Socialism.  The only Socialism we seem to have benefits the wealthy more than the less wealthy.

Well, I was being sarcastic, and just generally referring to the general global status quo. Too many people bang on about penalising wealth-creators, as though not allowing them free-rein is somehow an offence to the natural order. My own position is that wealth-creation is fine; using that wealth to consolidate extramural wealth is not. Capitalists make terrible capitalists...

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3 hours ago, inbruges said:

How is that even possible?

I was told by a friend who lives in Peterborough about one large certain group/community shall we say, sorry for the euphemisms, but do not want to be branded anything anti PC.On a big scale they own homes and  rent them out to each other in complicated ways and so many of them are claiming HB when they are all living under the roof of a family member. One of them was caught out taxi driving in the process of having a house he just brought rewired when a mate of mine saw a welfare payment addressed to him posted while he was living somewhere else.

So many times I am told these days "that's the way it is", even have a preachy school teacher relative whose thick lazy daughter used a pregnancy to leap up the housing queue after adding a few lies, Mum threw her out on the street etc. I just hate the UK system, cannot believe we have someone like Corbyn trying to make the country more left wing than it already is.

I'd say it looks more like they are trying to exploit loopholes, illegally or immorally , based on the far worse crony examples given by their (largely) right wing Tory and Blairite masters.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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