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Irrational exuberance

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It's so obvious that BTL is a bubble. One of the classic signs of a bubble is "irrational exuberance". Over the weekend, two threads on property tribes in particular have convinced me that this is the case:

1.) Parents looking to act as a guarantor so that soon can buy *another* BTL. Utterly batshit crazy.

https://www.propertytribes.com/guarantor-for-buy-to-let-mortgage-for-son-t-127634517.html

2) 22 year old, already with three BTLs looking to expand as quickly as possible, so he/she can quit the 'rat race'. 

https://www.propertytribes.com/so-here-we-again-on-sunday-evening-t-127634516.html

Totally clear from the above that neither have done any objective due diligence, as one might consider doing when borrowing eye watering large sums of money...

Many, many more examples on PropertyTripe. Life can't be that bad for landlords of they're still piling in...

 

 

 

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It's not only the BTL forums that are rife with people at least considering still piling into BTL whilst having done pretty much zero due diligence...  go on  just about any forum with a property related element to it and you will find numerous posts by wannabe property entrepreneurs still desperate to get into it, despite their only prior research seeming to consist of nothing more than sitting through an entire episode of HUTH.

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This was one the reason I that brought me to this site. An aquantiance has just recently "retired" having bought a couple of HMO's. This said person seems to make terrible financial decisions at every turn. Would always hear how good the 80's where, how him and his mates all self-certed etc. But just to mention a few recent errors; bought in bitcoin at the recent top, had sold a long standing BTL in a prime area just as it was recoving from the previous GFC and subsquently boomed. Also went in on a development in Manchester where the developers did a runner with all the money.

So I started to look into BTL's to understand it a bit, because there was no way I thought this person was onto a "sure thing".  Had to have a chuckle when it became clear why the HMO's he bought where wanting a quick a deal 😂

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So 22.. Hmmm.

So he's only had 4 years and he's got 3 ... hmmm.

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative of all the "its been impossible since 2012 because of HPI" people.

Something tells me that this 22 year old is going to be fine no matter what happens. Doesn't have the victim mind set. A winner.

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51 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

So 22.. Hmmm.

So he's only had 4 years and he's got 3 ... hmmm.

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative of all the "its been impossible since 2012 because of HPI" people.

Something tells me that this 22 year old is going to be fine no matter what happens. Doesn't have the victim mind set. A winner.

They could be gifted to him by his parents. I can't see this guy being a winner when he wants to shut his eyes to any impending crash. 

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54 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

So 22.. Hmmm.

So he's only had 4 years and he's got 3 ... hmmm.

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative of all the "its been impossible since 2012 because of HPI" people.

Something tells me that this 22 year old is going to be fine no matter what happens. Doesn't have the victim mind set. A winner.

Quite attainable in a shithole like Burnley. Would like to see his figures and NET earnings after voids, delinquencies, eviction costs and refits though :)

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24 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Quite attainable in a shithole like Burnley. Would like to see his figures and NET earnings after voids, delinquencies, eviction costs and refits though :)

So would I!

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Government has their backs they believe...the Kingdom's rich and powerful hold their wealth in land and property...the speculators referred to above calculate that those in power will do everything possible to inflate and prop up the value of land and property and all the evidence shows this is exactly what they are doing...Only thing is that markets are unwieldy and can be distorted for only so long....

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Strange...I thought millennials were victims, and certainly not afflicted with the greed of the boomer generation!

Almost as if in reality and circumstances allow...well, need I say more?

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3 hours ago, TryingToWin said:

So 22.. Hmmm.

So he's only had 4 years and he's got 3 ... hmmm.

Kinda doesn't fit the narrative of all the "its been impossible since 2012 because of HPI" people.

Something tells me that this 22 year old is going to be fine no matter what happens. Doesn't have the victim mind set. A winner.

He'll be fine. If the gamble pays off, he is sorted.

If it doesn't, he can just declare bankruptcy and be squeeky clean again by the time he is 30.

I can sort of see his thinking.

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8 hours ago, nome said:

It's not only the BTL forums that are rife with people at least considering still piling into BTL whilst having done pretty much zero due diligence...  go on  just about any forum with a property related element to it and you will find numerous posts by wannabe property entrepreneurs still desperate to get into it, despite their only prior research seeming to consist of nothing more than sitting through an entire episode of HUTH.

When your taxi driver is talking about an investment opportunity, you know it's too late

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8 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

When your taxi driver is talking about an investment opportunity, you know it's too late

Next door but one is a BTL owned by a Taxi driver :( Weirdly the house next to mine is rented off someone else, but occupied by the Taxi drivers wife (? or ex...) and daughter, not him. I sense a benefits house letting circle... another thing they need to get a handle on!

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12 hours ago, zilly said:

Strange...I thought millennials were victims, and certainly not afflicted with the greed of the boomer generation!

Almost as if in reality and circumstances allow...well, need I say more?

Please say more because a view held by many on this site is that millenials can do no wrong and are somehow ‘special’ a super evolved species who care, will change the world and will make better choices for society at every turn ....

Rather than those nasty old boomers who were created in the wake of the H bomb tests in the 50’s and 60’s in a lab and are a cross between Dr Doom and  the Kracken and created their own 2nd coming in the form of Mrs T

😂😂

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3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Please say more because a view held by many on this site is that millenials can do no wrong and are somehow ‘special’ a super evolved species who care, will change the world and will make better choices for society at every turn ....

Rather than those nasty old boomers who were created in the wake of the H bomb tests in the 50’s and 60’s in a lab and are a cross between Dr Doom and  the Kracken and created their own 2nd coming in the form of Mrs T

😂😂

I think the plan was divide and rule. Get the younger population to blame the older ones and have the older ones say today's problems always existed. 

That way stupid government policies for HPI and the effect of monetary policy go unnoticed. An increasing number of BTLers are young guys who have lived in rented accommodation and resented paying the LL's mortgage. 

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It is a fact that housing problems affects in a disproportionate measure the younger generation. The impossibility to access ownership is a massive hindrance for society. And all the things that have been written about the "entitled" avocado eaters, iphone users generation to push back on the acknowledgement of the problem. 

Now the solutions should not be based on age of the owner, but in a way that balances things back. LTV is an idea to explore in order to alleviate the problem of income rich, asset poor people.

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9 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Please say more because a view held by many on this site is that millenials can do no wrong and are somehow ‘special’ a super evolved species who care, will change the world and will make better choices for society at every turn ....

Rather than those nasty old boomers who were created in the wake of the H bomb tests in the 50’s and 60’s in a lab and are a cross between Dr Doom and  the Kracken and created their own 2nd coming in the form of Mrs T

😂😂

Congratulations, loon pants. Nothing works. The roads are full of holes, the pavements full of litter. Social services are on their knees and the NHS is facing the greatest crisis since its inception. It takes two weeks to get a doctor's appointment and forget about taking a train anywhere. The worst housing shortage in living memory is accompanied by an open-door immigration policy. Nobody has any money or secure employment and our aggregate debts are racing up an exponential slope to infinity.

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15 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Congratulations, loon pants. Nothing works. The roads are full of holes, the pavements full of litter. Social services are on their knees and the NHS is facing the greatest crisis since its inception. It takes two weeks to get a doctor's appointment and forget about taking a train anywhere. The worst housing shortage in living memory is accompanied by an open-door immigration policy. Nobody has any money or secure employment and our aggregate debts are racing up an exponential slope to infinity.

Was in the UK last week and noticed all the holes in the roads and people complaining about them. Just marked off with white paint. Dangerous for cyclists.

Was in two totally different parts of the country as well. Same problem.

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1 hour ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Was in the UK last week and noticed all the holes in the roads and people complaining about them. Just marked off with white paint. Dangerous for cyclists.

I remember how we used to laugh at the French. They never fixed their roads just put up a sign "chaussee deformee" i.e. Road Bust (so watch out) 

Not laughing now. 

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3 hours ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Was in the UK last week and noticed all the holes in the roads and people complaining about them. Just marked off with white paint. Dangerous for cyclists.

Was in two totally different parts of the country as well. Same problem.

That means the council know about them so give it two weeks make sure the hole is still there and put your claim for two new alloys two new tyres and a drive shaft and wishbone for good measure. 

3k claim easily paid out on that 

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On 14/05/2018 at 14:02, CanAffordWontPay said:

This was one the reason I that brought me to this site. An aquantiance has just recently "retired" having bought a couple of HMO's. This said person seems to make terrible financial decisions at every turn. Would always hear how good the 80's where, how him and his mates all self-certed etc. But just to mention a few recent errors; bought in bitcoin at the recent top, had sold a long standing BTL in a prime area just as it was recoving from the previous GFC and subsquently boomed. Also went in on a development in Manchester where the developers did a runner with all the money.

So I started to look into BTL's to understand it a bit, because there was no way I thought this person was onto a "sure thing".  Had to have a chuckle when it became clear why the HMO's he bought where wanting a quick a deal 😂

I suspect property tribes are rubbing their hands with glee awaiting the impending investor property crash and the chance of picking up a HMO bargain, oh hang on, bloody genius!

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13 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Congratulations, loon pants. Nothing works. The roads are full of holes, the pavements full of litter. Social services are on their knees and the NHS is facing the greatest crisis since its inception. It takes two weeks to get a doctor's appointment and forget about taking a train anywhere. The worst housing shortage in living memory is accompanied by an open-door immigration policy. Nobody has any money or secure employment and our aggregate debts are racing up an exponential slope to infinity.

I am a loony because I say blaming one group in society is counter productive, we are perhaps truly at the end of empire as a Deputy Governor at the Bank of England said yesterday menopausal in our productivity, Globalisation was a demon no one understood and AI is around the corner 

But I get it - have a shout at your Mum and Dad because that’s going to fix it right ?

Boomers per se as any other cohort don’t have secret meetings in a bunker to decide  group policy 😂

As for your list of woes.

Roads yes - as a petrol head bit of a bummer 

Houses - of course 

NHS - not my personal experience or any of my family 

No money or secure employment - really ? Your view very localised to you not my children, my brothers or my business partners experience and when you add in close friends a sample size of 20+ Youngsters all in a variation of careers - seem remarkably similar to ours 30 years ago 

Immigration isn’t it younger generations who love a bit of Corbyn and remain ?

So all in all glad you got it off your chest feel better now ?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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