Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Gigantic Purple Slug

What Will the Government Do Next ?

Recommended Posts

Well it seems to me that the housing market is starting to flatline. No huge evidence of a crash, but the upwards momentum seems to have all but disappeared.

So what (if anything) is the Government going to do about it ?

Will it be interest rate decreases, another TFS, some sort of revamp of Help to Buy, fiddling around with taxes such as S24 or stamp duty, something else, or hopefully, nothing ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing if they have any sense. They have to balance the people who would moan about prices falling a bit or flatlining with all the growing amount of voters who are fed up with not being able to buy a house. Its housing that will loose them the next election. If we had a real conservative government, they would be free market and leave well alone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Nothing if they have any sense. They have to balance the people who would moan about prices falling a bit or flatlining with all the growing amount of voters who are fed up with not being able to buy a house. Its housing that will loose them the next election. If we had a real conservative government, they would be free market and leave well alone.

But its not a free market if some methods of purchase (BTL) have tax advantages compared to other purchase methods (owner occupiers)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Nothing if they have any sense. They have to balance the people who would moan about prices falling a bit or flatlining with all the growing amount of voters who are fed up with not being able to buy a house. Its housing that will loose them the next election. If we had a real conservative government, they would be free market and leave well alone.

I've definitely detect increasing support for renters in the media over the past couple of years.

Whether that is enough to drown out the howls of protest that will occur if prices start to drop significantly is another issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well pre 2007 this site was purely a site of doomongers who 'missed the boat'. Now it represents a few generations of the population who will vote for Corbyn to deliver what we want even if he screws up the UK to achieve it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Roman Roady said:

QE via the GBP10,000 windfall for 25yr olds

Never really felt that was on the cards. It's too direct.

Something like the TFS allows them to hose money at the housing market while simultaneously shovelling it towards the bankers so they can get a nice cut.

Plus the TFS goes almost unmentioned, whereas interest rate changes get a load of publicity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bear.getting.old said:

Well pre 2007 this site was purely a site of doomongers who 'missed the boat'. Now it represents a few generations of the population who will vote for Corbyn to deliver what we want even if he screws up the UK to achieve it

The UK is screwed for many in those generations you speak of,  and the economy is screwed hence the need for QE/ZIRP and the rest. So quite how Corbyn is going to screw over the economy when its monetary system is already on life support is something only a brainwashed boomer could come out with.

If he stops propping house prices up it'll be the closest thing to  return to capitalism that'll we'll get, capitalism is something the Tory party clearly do not want to allow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, fru-gal said:

Capital gains tax on main homes (eventually). 

That is just utter nonsense, if someone had a house to live in that they bought in lets say 2000 and wanted to move this would make it financial suicide to do so.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

QE via the GBP10,000 windfall for 25yr olds

 FTBers get  3k via Help to buy ISA, more likely to extend this to give to the middle class kids.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TJHooker said:

That is just utter nonsense, if someone had a house to live in that they bought in lets say 2000 and wanted to move this would make it financial suicide to do so.

 

Not if you remove SDLT and IHT. Either way they have to pay something. Brings in more taxes for the government, lowers house prices so that young people can buy and is unlikely to be any worse than anything Labour could come up with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Not if you remove SDLT and IHT. Either way they have to pay something. Brings in more taxes for the government, lowers house prices so that young people can buy and is unlikely to be any worse than anything Labour could come up with.

Oh yes removing inheritance tax is a real sweetener for someone looking to move their family in their 30s/40s who will have to pay potentially 10s of thousands more to move. 

SDLT is already a stumbling block to move you want to add thousands on top, it will never happen.

If getting young people to buy is something the govt want to do which clearly they do not, all the govt have to do is get the BoE to stick to its mandate and raise interest rates when inflation is over 2%.

At best  Labour may fiddle around with council tax, as them and their sponsors are neck deep in property wealth.

Edited by TJHooker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, TJHooker said:

That is just utter nonsense, if someone had a house to live in that they bought in lets say 2000 and wanted to move this would make it financial suicide to do so.

 

Why would it be "financial suicide"?  They would pay a percentage of the gain to the taxman and retain the rest?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, TJHooker said:

The UK is screwed for many in those generations you speak of,  and the economy is screwed hence the need for QE/ZIRP and the rest. So quite how Corbyn is going to screw over the economy when its monetary system is already on life support is something only a brainwashed boomer could come out with.

If he stops propping house prices up it'll be the closest thing to  return to capitalism that'll we'll get, capitalism is something the Tory party clearly do not want to allow.

He wont stop propping up prices, if anything he will do more under the guise of "helping working families" for example I bet he would remove the loan aspect of SMI so it becomes a pure giveaway again. 

And if you think things cant get much worse, well imagine throwing open the immigration floodgates even more than now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Why would it be "financial suicide"?  They would pay a percentage of the gain to the taxman and retain the rest?

Yes triffic if they can move the family out of a house and live in a tent, the unearned wealth will come in really handy

People on this website promoting those who are moving to a house to live in needing to take on more debt sums it up.

Suppose at least if this were to happen then the govt would have more money to spend on HTB like schemes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

He wont stop propping up prices, if anything he will do more under the guise of "helping working families" for example I bet he would remove the loan aspect of SMI so it becomes a pure giveaway again. 

And if you think things cant get much worse, well imagine throwing open the immigration floodgates even more than now.

I said "if", you don't know and i don't know, but i do know this Tory party won't stop propping them up, no matter how much people on here salivate over S24.

And the Tory party opened the floodgates even more than Labour, was that Corbyns fault also?

My belief is Corbyn will go after landowners/lords far more than this lot and he will also spend like a drunken sailor to get the economy going (as per DurhamBorns topic) which will lead to higher interest rates. But to suggest he will destroy an already destroyed economy is nonsense. the economy is fkd for those 50s not owning assets, he'd struggle to make it worse for them as the current Tory party are taking their wages and savings, all he has to do is go after assets and it'll make it  better for working plebs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, TJHooker said:

Yes triffic if they can move the family out of a house and live in a tent, the unearned wealth will come in really handy

People on this website promoting those who are moving to a house to live in needing to take on more debt sums it up.

Suppose at least if this were to happen then the govt would have more money to spend on HTB like schemes.

Sorry - you haven't answered my question.

Why would paying 28% of the gain made on their house consign this family to financial ruin?  They would just have less to put down as a deposit on their next house. 

Edited by Exiled Canadian
typo's corrected

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

Just tax people on the wealth of their properties land... employment is booming.... I'm sure they can afford it.

Two issues.

1. Land 'ownership' ... those who have first access to it have massive advantage over subsequent generations

2. Money creation...... those who have first access to it have massive advantage over subsequent users.... remember the trickle down BS theory?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Sorry - you haven't answered my question.

Why would paying 28% of the gain made on their house consign this family to financial ruin?  They would just have less to put down as a deposit on their next house. 

Average paid family bought a house in 1998 for £100,000 and can sell it for £400,000, to move to a house in 2018 which costs £450,000.

Thus £84k CGT on top of the £50k to borrow when they're 20 years older.

As opposed to £12.5k SDLT.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I wouldn't bother guessing as they'll probably read this forum and use it 

Introduce a 10% pa land value tax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TJHooker said:

Average paid family bought a house in 1998 for £100,000 and can sell it for £400,000, to move to a house in 2018 which costs £450,000.

Thus £84k CGT on top of the £50k to borrow when they're 20 years older.

As opposed to £12.5k SDLT.

 

You're ignoring two things.

1. Average family won't be the only ones facing the tax, everyone will, so this will have an "income effect" on demand for larger homes and reduce their price.

2.  Equalising the tax regime across  asset classes (equities etc. currently accrue CGT on gains) will reduce the incentive to "maximise" the size of ones house to maximise the investment tax break.  Again this will reduce demand for larger properties leading to a price reduction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.