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gruffydd

Ireland has well and truly lost it - Celtic Tiger mark 2 - rents rise over 10% in a year

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Well, I am just back from Ireland and Dublin reminds me of the last phase of madness - Celtic Tiger mark 2 - and there's nothing the central bank can do about it. 

Basically, Ireland's economy is aligned with US economic cycles, not mainland Europe's - yet monetary policy is dictated by mainland EU. 

Rents are going through the roof: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-crisis-continues-as-rents-soar-past-celtic-tiger-highs-1.3482965

5 days and 1200 quid later I'm glad to be back home... jeepers it's expensive! Didn't enjoy it - infrastructure is clearly under huge strain in Dublin. Just awful. 

David McWilliams is well worth following: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/central-bank-covering-its-backside-on-overheating/

 

Edited by gruffydd

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21 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Well, I am just back from Ireland and Dublin reminds me of the last phase of madness - Celtic Tiger mark 2 - and there's nothing the central bank can do about it. 

Basically, Ireland's economy is aligned with US economic cycles, not mainland Europe's - yet monetary policy is dictated by mainland EU. 

Rents are going through the roof: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-crisis-continues-as-rents-soar-past-celtic-tiger-highs-1.3482965

5 days and 1200 quid later I'm glad to be back home... jeepers it's expensive! Didn't enjoy it - infrastructure is clearly under huge strain in Dublin. Just awful. 

David McWilliams is well worth following: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/central-bank-covering-its-backside-on-overheating/

 

Only ever visited Dublin and as a tourist.  It has become incredibly expensive to visit over recent years though, and not just due to the drop in the £.  I noticed a lot more homeless people the last time I was there too.  A few friends have gone to Belfast instead of Dublin for a weekend break recently, apparently quite a nice city now and a lot cheaper than Dublin.

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48 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

Only ever visited Dublin and as a tourist.  It has become incredibly expensive to visit over recent years though, and not just due to the drop in the £.  I noticed a lot more homeless people the last time I was there too.  A few friends have gone to Belfast instead of Dublin for a weekend break recently, apparently quite a nice city now and a lot cheaper than Dublin.

Belfast is being hollowed out by the developers - big hotel chains and so on - have a few friends there - the property developers are doing their thing turning it into a city that looks like everywhere else - starting to see protests for the first time. Much of it's driven by tourism. 

I lived in Belfast for a couple of years in the early 90s and it was OK - rather dull and not the most impressive architecture (probably because so much was bombed during the troubles) - what the troubles didn't finish off the money men are flushing down the crapper. Very sad. 

To me, Belfast is the perfect example of the damage developers can do to a city when they're unleashed - I can hardly bear to visit it these days. 

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/01/18/news/market-area-residents-take-legal-challenge-to-a-new-55-million-office-development-being-built-beside-their-homes-1234993/

Edited by gruffydd

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I have a relative in Dublin. Recently sold a house for 600K euros. Bought for 100K euros 15 years ago. At the peak of the boom last time, had it valued at 450K. Yeah, Dublin is super bubbly. That said, I do love Dublin, lovely center and I actually think the infrastructure is better than London. Also attracts a lot of bluechip American firms, so there is potential for a serious career there. That said, most of the young, dynamic folk I have know there have gone off to places like Canada, US, Australia, Singapore. It's also a major city you can live and have nice beaches and coastline on your doorstep (weather permitting and if you can afford it - all the nice coastal towns on the Dublin burbs are super expensive). If you move out an hour or so from Dublin itself, you can find some really reasonably priced property. I saw a fixer-upper cottage about 90 mins drive from Dublin city centre for around 70K euros, near to another relative. You won't get anything like that within 90 mins of london. Though they didn't seem to like Dubliners much there lol! The relatives near there have only just been accpeted after 20 years! Though funny enough, local French and German couples were accepted into the community very quickly.

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On 04/05/2018 at 22:49, gruffydd said:

Belfast is being hollowed out by the developers - big hotel chains and so on - have a few friends there - the property developers are doing their thing turning it into a city that looks like everywhere else - starting to see protests for the first time. Much of it's driven by tourism. 

I lived in Belfast for a couple of years in the early 90s and it was OK - rather dull and not the most impressive architecture (probably because so much was bombed during the troubles) - what the troubles didn't finish off the money men are flushing down the crapper. Very sad. 

To me, Belfast is the perfect example of the damage developers can do to a city when they're unleashed - I can hardly bear to visit it these days. 

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/01/18/news/market-area-residents-take-legal-challenge-to-a-new-55-million-office-development-being-built-beside-their-homes-1234993/

Belfast has changed massively since I was at school there in the mid 1990's, back then you'd hardly see a tourist other than somebody coming back to see family.  And there was a lot more terrorism.  Now it has cruise ships, stag weekends, cheap flights, back offices of London law firms, etc, etc.  I'd say the development has been on the whole well managed.  Quality of life and 'happiness' is high compared to the rest of the UK + Irish Republic, and property prices are now relatively very low following 2008 crash.

The main problem is the terrible transport infrastructure: 2 airports neither of which has a railway station despite both being right next to railway lines.  No tram network or underground, bus network fairly bad but everyone has a car.

It remains totally over-reliant on the public sector and, like a heroin addict, would simply not function without a continual flow of money from London.  Ireland (Republic) much healthier economically as a result of having to live on its own wits.

All that said, I go back a lot and would happily move back to NI if circumstances changed.

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Trying to solve their housing problem with massive immigration.

Ireland risks becoming a state filled of LL creaming off tax payer paid benefits for idle migrants.

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Was in Dublin at the peak of the last bubble (2006), pretty much constant traffic jams, literally drive out of parking space and into traffic jam most of the time.  Definitely worse than London traffic wise (coming from someone that hates London)

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The rest of Europe bailed them out last time, no doubt they see this happening again.

ROI will be well and truly screwed when other govts get tired of corporations sending their tax take to Ireland to pay next to nothing, the ultimate parasite economy.

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15 hours ago, reddog said:

Was in Dublin at the peak of the last bubble (2006), pretty much constant traffic jams, literally drive out of parking space and into traffic jam most of the time.  Definitely worse than London traffic wise (coming from someone that hates London)

Definitely worse than any city I've come across, anywhere. 

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18 hours ago, Ballyk said:

Belfast has changed massively since I was at school there in the mid 1990's, back then you'd hardly see a tourist other than somebody coming back to see family.  And there was a lot more terrorism.  Now it has cruise ships, stag weekends, cheap flights, back offices of London law firms, etc, etc.  I'd say the development has been on the whole well managed.  Quality of life and 'happiness' is high compared to the rest of the UK + Irish Republic, and property prices are now relatively very low following 2008 crash.

The main problem is the terrible transport infrastructure: 2 airports neither of which has a railway station despite both being right next to railway lines.  No tram network or underground, bus network fairly bad but everyone has a car.

It remains totally over-reliant on the public sector and, like a heroin addict, would simply not function without a continual flow of money from London.  Ireland (Republic) much healthier economically as a result of having to live on its own wits.

All that said, I go back a lot and would happily move back to NI if circumstances changed.

Very low disposable income too, now - despite the cheaper houses - I seem to recall that when I lived there in early 90s it had very high relative disposable income http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38746308

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21 hours ago, frankvw said:

I have a relative in Dublin. Recently sold a house for 600K euros. Bought for 100K euros 15 years ago. At the peak of the boom last time, had it valued at 450K. Yeah, Dublin is super bubbly. That said, I do love Dublin, lovely center and I actually think the infrastructure is better than London. Also attracts a lot of bluechip American firms, so there is potential for a serious career there. That said, most of the young, dynamic folk I have know there have gone off to places like Canada, US, Australia, Singapore. It's also a major city you can live and have nice beaches and coastline on your doorstep (weather permitting and if you can afford it - all the nice coastal towns on the Dublin burbs are super expensive). If you move out an hour or so from Dublin itself, you can find some really reasonably priced property. I saw a fixer-upper cottage about 90 mins drive from Dublin city centre for around 70K euros, near to another relative. You won't get anything like that within 90 mins of london. Though they didn't seem to like Dubliners much there lol! The relatives near there have only just been accpeted after 20 years! Though funny enough, local French and German couples were accepted into the community very quickly.

Not sure why you're comparing Dublin with London - huge size difference - perhaps Birmingham is a better comparison

Re: infrastructure: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/we-are-on-road-to-ruin-unless-we-increase-infrastructure-investment-without-delay-35597648.html

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1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

Not sure why you're comparing Dublin with London - huge size difference - perhaps Birmingham is a better comparison

Re: infrastructure: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/we-are-on-road-to-ruin-unless-we-increase-infrastructure-investment-without-delay-35597648.html

Not really comparing directly. London is one of the World's mega-cities, so obviously no direct comparison although it is the capital city and, in the case of my line of work, there are serious buisiness opportunities related to the number of US and Canadian firms there. For me at least, Birmingham seems to have less business opportunities in my field. I guess in my case, Bristol or Edinburgh would be a better comparison. Infrastructure wise, it depends where you live. No doubt, if you are at certain ends of Dublin, the infrastructure can feel pretty good. I guess it's patchy, like London.

Like I say though, I have felt a definite hollowing out of professionals and go-getters from Dublin. I have done a fair bit of business there over the years and I often travel over to Canada and the US, you always seem to bump into Irish folk, particularly the young and dynamic or professionals. Kind of think that this must be one of the down sides of basing economic activity heavily towards property in an economy. You must eventually hollow out the ambitious or key workers from the city.

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56 minutes ago, frankvw said:

Not really comparing directly. London is one of the World's mega-cities, so obviously no direct comparison although it is the capital city and, in the case of my line of work, there are serious buisiness opportunities related to the number of US and Canadian firms there. For me at least, Birmingham seems to have less business opportunities in my field. I guess in my case, Bristol or Edinburgh would be a better comparison. Infrastructure wise, it depends where you live. No doubt, if you are at certain ends of Dublin, the infrastructure can feel pretty good. I guess it's patchy, like London.

Like I say though, I have felt a definite hollowing out of professionals and go-getters from Dublin. I have done a fair bit of business there over the years and I often travel over to Canada and the US, you always seem to bump into Irish folk, particularly the young and dynamic or professionals. Kind of think that this must be one of the down sides of basing economic activity heavily towards property in an economy. You must eventually hollow out the ambitious or key workers from the city.

I see alot of Irish leaving and alot of E/S Europeans, etc. replacing them - I suspect it's a case of standard of living (and of course housing costs / rents) - the wages are pretty low in Dublin - could probably more than double salary (say, in IT) simply by hopping across the Atlantic or heading down to Australia. 

Edited by gruffydd

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Shock horror. A country desperately trying to hugely increase population through immigration is finding out it's not all roses and tea parties. 

Utterly shocked I tell you. :lol:

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1 hour ago, ccc said:

Shock horror. A country desperately trying to hugely increase population through immigration is finding out it's not all roses and tea parties. 

Utterly shocked I tell you. :lol:

All the 'good' migrants want to go to the US - low tax, low welfare economy where their hard work wont be taxed away to pay for the 'other' migrants.

Immigration and a welfare state dont mix.

Any country seeling migrants is only going to get dross.

Like one of those clubs where, if you ask to join they dont want you. 

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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