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chronyx

Iran/Israel

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Is this 'it'? I'm even less of a geo-strategist than I am financial-strategist so just wondered what the general opinion was. Sabre rattling and seeing who blinks first or something more?

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10 hours ago, chronyx said:

Is this 'it'? I'm even less of a geo-strategist than I am financial-strategist so just wondered what the general opinion was. Sabre rattling and seeing who blinks first or something more?

IMHO as far as iran's proxies in syria,lebanon and so on,then I think this most certainly is "it"

my take is that iran is also stirring up saudi coup attempts, so you have a 3 way power scrap between iran,turkey and saudi.

iran hates saudi (it's mutual)so probably will attack directly at some stage, turkey doesn't like iran because erdogan wants to be head caliph..a direct threat to the mullahs stranglehold on power.......so they stoke things up,maybe even a false flag on their own soil to invoke the nato mutual assistance thing...attempting to goad uncle sam into action.

If and when that happens,turkey can claim"it wasn't us" to the rest of the "caliph" and use the attack as an excuse to galvanise through mutual hatred of the USA etc.

in the mean time you've lost about 1/3 the world oil supply and a couple of very important shipping routes....hello inflation on steroids.

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1 hour ago, oracle said:

IMHO as far as iran's proxies in syria,lebanon and so on,then I think this most certainly is "it"

my take is that iran is also stirring up saudi coup attempts, so you have a 3 way power scrap between iran,turkey and saudi.

iran hates saudi (it's mutual)so probably will attack directly at some stage, turkey doesn't like iran because erdogan wants to be head caliph..a direct threat to the mullahs stranglehold on power.......so they stoke things up,maybe even a false flag on their own soil to invoke the nato mutual assistance thing...attempting to goad uncle sam into action.

If and when that happens,turkey can claim"it wasn't us" to the rest of the "caliph" and use the attack as an excuse to galvanise through mutual hatred of the USA etc.

in the mean time you've lost about 1/3 the world oil supply and a couple of very important shipping routes....hello inflation on steroids.

Interesting cheers Oracle!

Do you think Russia and China will take action?

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The sabre rattling at the moment is coming from the Israelis and the French. It's pathetic really. The reality is that both expect the Americans to do the fighting and the dying if this escalated into a serious conflict. The US has no intention of getting drawn into a major conflict in the region after its disasterous invasion and occupation of Iraq, and with an 'America First' president in the White House.

Iran is a huge, mountainous and populous country with a decent military capability. There's no question of serious military action against Iran directly. Sanctions have been in place for decades and have had no impact on changing Iran's foreign policy. The West can strike at Iranian interests abroad - primarily in Syria and Yemen - but this is also ineffective. I have visited both Saudi and Iran and the Iranians are unquestionably the West's natural allies, but that's another story.

Saudi by contrast is in real trouble. The rapid liberalisation of their backward society is a sign of fundamental weakness as a young and wealthy population agitate for greater freedoms. This will ultimately lead to a conservative crack-down (like Egypt) or a full-scale rebellion (like Libya). Saudi society is crumbling without Iranian assistance, although the Iranians will surely benefit.

For almost a century the West's policy has been to contain the traditional regional powers of Turkey and Iran. The invasion of Iraq demonstrated the clear limitations of US power in the region and since then both Turkey and Iran have be re-asserting themselves. In time they will regain their historic status and the rag-tag bunch of backward tribes we've backed since WW2 in exchange for fossil fuels will return to the sands.  

The Iranians have played a blinder. To be fair, the West, is losing because of stupid decisions taken decades ago. We're not going to be able to bully our way out of it this time.

 

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Nice one Orsino.  Let's hope you're right about Trump keeping the Americans staying out of this one.  At the moment, to me it seems he 'talks a war up' and then sidestep into a different approach.  

Hmmm, I just remembered something I posted way back.  Called that one right

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/230870-is-anyone-else-bored-of-north-korea-already/

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9 hours ago, chronyx said:

Interesting cheers Oracle!

Do you think Russia and China will take action?

aside from agitiating on the sidelines for now,my guess is unlikely..for now.

both have a problem with "radicals" on their own turf,as much as they have a problem with the west.

russia also has a suicidally low birth rate,so they have as much of a vested interest in wanting to keep russia for russians,against a highly expansionist proxy,but would like to use said proxy do do sufficient political/economic damage so as to re-assert themselves again on the world stage

china's needs are more economic I think.massive population and an insatiable appetite for resources,so they use their massive capital reserves to buy infrastucture.....if they can't buy they will take.

the chinese are pragmatists..they see it as competition for resources,and the 1.5Bn "radicals" are in the way.you cold say the same for africa...As far as NK goes their grip would be if the US tried to get too involved.....I think they would tacitly approve of removal of kim-jong,but would not like a buffer zone like nato did with ukraine on their border...trump would be wise to deal with NK but then invite china ,SK and japan into a council to govern the area themselves.

 

so lots of sabre-rattling,but main conflict confined to middle east for the moment IMHO.Doesn't mean that it won't have an impact here though.

flash points:

middle east,indonesia,india/pakistan

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I didn't know that about Russia.  A hangover from the Soviet era?  I wonder if they will follow the disastrous welfare 'quantity over quality' system, followed by third world immigration too?

Edit: Cheers! Interesting post

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8 minutes ago, chronyx said:

I didn't know that about Russia.  A hangover from the Soviet era?  I wonder if they will follow the disastrous welfare 'quantity over quality' system, followed by third world immigration too?

Edit: Cheers! Interesting post

I'm not so sure about soviet hangover with the russians.

I think possibly harking back for a new peter the great rather than lenin 2.0.It's actually a glimmer of hope in that country that they want to return back to orthodox christendom.

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1 minute ago, oracle said:

I'm not so sure about soviet hangover with the russians.

I think possibly harking back for a new peter the great rather than lenin 2.0.It's actually a glimmer of hope in that country that they want to return back to orthodox christendom.

Agreed. I'm not particularly religious but the speed with which Christianity has been neutered and wiped from the West is a bit scary even from my point of view.

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2 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Agreed. I'm not particularly religious but the speed with which Christianity has been neutered and wiped from the West is a bit scary even from my point of view.

I don't think it's been neutered......I'm actually more concerned than that.I'm concerned that those "claiming" to be of faith-actually of pretty much all persuasions, are being fundamentalised,albeit they can't for the most part see what they are doing.

we see it in the likes of remoaners/brexit, usa democrats v trump,middle eastern politics(saudi/iran) etc etc....there seems to be a real "black and white" polarisation of views....and different points of view are no longer respected/debated..they are heresy/ignorance/mental illness.....

that I find extremely troubling..very dangerous indeed to be so set in your thinking you are unable/incapable of different modes of thought.We have been here before.

.it's only a short step away from calling one of the "deplorables" above out for a nice cosy fireside chat with the infallible priest...all that Bullsh1t from 600 years ago.

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addendum.

with respect to the above post...when you get that type of mindset there is absolutely NO chance of compromise or reasoning.It is an all-or-nothing bargain.

and I mean all or nothing.It needs to be defeated by exposure,hard facts,and sometimes brute force.

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3 minutes ago, oracle said:

I don't think it's been neutered...

Gay weddings :lol:

Given the fact 2/3 of the straight men I know abhor the idea of marriage, I agree with the view that it was more about making a statement.  MOAR ACCEPTANCE.

Quite why, I don't know, as I nor anyone I know could give two shits about where one man wants to put his *****, and civil ceremonies were already established with the Civil Partnership Act 2004, supported by Lab and Con.

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1 minute ago, chronyx said:

Gay weddings :lol:

Given the fact 2/3 of the straight men I know abhor the idea of marriage, I agree with the view that it was more about making a statement.  MOAR ACCEPTANCE.

Quite why, I don't know, as I nor anyone I know could give two shits about where one man wants to put his *****, and civil ceremonies were already established with the Civil Partnership Act 2004, supported by Lab and Con.

If I was to tell you that some really hardline fundamentalists were behind that policy it probably wouldn't sit too well...you see we are apostates-fallen away from the faith and need to be taught a lesson.

..so the hardliners actively promote this stuff, aid and abet other hardliners of a slightly different spectrum to come in and "punish the infidel", and they will come out of their bunkers when it's all over and say--told you so heretics, you were sinners and had to pay.

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4 minutes ago, oracle said:

If I was to tell you that some really hardline fundamentalists were behind that policy it probably wouldn't sit too well...you see we are apostates-fallen away from the faith and need to be taught a lesson.

..so the hardliners actively promote this stuff, aid and abet other hardliners of a slightly different spectrum to come in and "punish the infidel", and they will come out of their bunkers when it's all over and say--told you so heretics, you were sinners and had to pay.

That's a new way of looking at it...not sure if I agree as it's a bit '4D chess' and I'm a fan of Occam's Razor...where are the Jewish and Islamic gay weddings? (Or equivalent) Oh only Christians can be 'homophobic'!

It's interesting though, something I hadn't thought of, and I like that.

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never mind.If you are of faith of some kind,you know god keeps score,and no plot is hidden.

All that sort of deception and under-handedness of dealings does not go un-noticed,or un-punished.

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6 minutes ago, oracle said:

never mind.If you are of faith of some kind,you know god keeps score,and no plot is hidden.

All that sort of deception and under-handedness of dealings does not go un-noticed,or un-punished.

True - Even if not religious, you can't change the laws of physics! Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, and energy cannot be destroyed.

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2 minutes ago, oracle said:

never mind.If you are of faith of some kind,you know god keeps score,and no plot is hidden.

All that sort of deception and under-handedness of dealings does not go un-noticed,or un-punished.

lets take ww2 as an example.

supposedly....morals and ethics were on the slide(in some alleged cases in germany due to ducious morals/ethics within a section of german society)

hitler rises and "chastises" the immorral erc etc

then god raises up the communists to butcher and impose payback on the instrument of chastisment...it's not just payback,it's a proper beating.

 

moral of this story is don't play the piety bandwagon,because it's coming back to haunt you on steroids.

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So will those who, for example as we're doing ww2, are still telling German teenagers that events of 70 years are all their fault and they should be ashamed, get the piety come uppance this time?  Hope springs eternal

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Hopefully that doesn't sound pro or anti anything.

Just IMO WW2 was nothing but bankrolled fratricide

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9 minutes ago, chronyx said:

So will those who, for example as we're doing ww2, are still telling German teenagers that events of 70 years are all their fault and they should be ashamed, get the piety come uppance this time?  Hope springs eternal

quite possibly.

the old testament take on it is inter-generational curses.basically paying for the sins of your parents/grandparents.

I'm not particularly inclined toward that school of though,it does seem unduly harsh.Personal responsibility for sure, but why should my children take responsibility for my f3ck-ups?

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Could it be along the lines of recessive genes skipping generations and/or gene expression?  Less to do with fault or morals, just life being life. Whether that's deity or science based, who knows. Better minds than mine don't. :lol:

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21 hours ago, chronyx said:

 energy cannot be destroyed.

What I like to do at the gym to burn calories is to set the treadmill to 15 degree incline and just walk "uphill". It is really knackering but does the job and I end up very tired.

If I were to walk up a real hill then I could roll all the way down again using my stored kinetic energy.  Where does the energy go when I do it on a treadmill? Been bugging me every time I get on one.

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15 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

What I like to do at the gym to burn calories is to set the treadmill to 15 degree incline and just walk "uphill". It is really knackering but does the job and I end up very tired.

If I were to walk up a real hill then I could roll all the way down again using my stored kinetic energy.  Where does the energy go when I do it on a treadmill? Been bugging me every time I get on one.

Heat from your muscles, maybe some induced current in the treadmill motor windings (or extra heat in the motor if it's working against you)

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34 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Heat from your muscles, maybe some induced current in the treadmill motor windings (or extra heat in the motor if it's working against you)

Thought of these. You generate heat from your muscles anyway walking up a hill.

The machine does get warm like any electrical thing with a motor, however  doesn't seem to be any hotter at max incline than it is on the flat. 

Finding it very annoying that I can't figure it out. 

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1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Thought of these. You generate heat from your muscles anyway walking up a hill.

The machine does get warm like any electrical thing with a motor, however  doesn't seem to be any hotter at max incline than it is on the flat. 

Finding it very annoying that I can't figure it out. 

Oh, friction in the rollers for the belt and associated drives too

The motor could even be working cooler as you are moving the belt, not it, at that sort of incline compared to flat.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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