Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Simhadri

Do you believe house prices will be lower in 2025 than now ?

Recommended Posts

Not many people on this forum would have predicted that they would be higher now than 2007, but they are - in many parts of the country at least. What is certain is that you will be 7 years older.

My guess, FWIW (which is very little), is that they will be the same or higher in nominal terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They could be, they could be higher (somehow).

In 7 years you'll have paid off about a quarter of your mortgage instead of handing money to letting agents or landlords. 

They could then fall by a reasonable amount and you've stood still financially, but not been at risk of eviction, made the house your home, made connections in that community etc. Those things are very hard to put a price on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, adarmo said:

They could be, they could be higher (somehow).

In 7 years you'll have paid off about a quarter of your mortgage instead of handing money to letting agents or landlords. 

They could then fall by a reasonable amount and you've stood still financially, but not been at risk of eviction, made the house your home, made connections in that community etc. Those things are very hard to put a price on. 

Considering you didn't actually put a price on anything else then I suppose adding it up at all isn't a big issue in these terms.

Opportunity cost of other stuff is also important, and real.

Edited by Si1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the case of Greater London: no doubt. When any bubble reaches the top and there is also social pressure for prices to come down, then it will certainly happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Could house prices in 2025 be cheaper than now ?

In real/inflation adjusted terms? OR nominal terms?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, stuckinlimbo said:

 I think they might stay the same, but wages will not have grown and the value of the pound might have plummeted.

My perception too. I think the BoE and government are on the same page. 

There won't even need to be major housebuilding to be honest. I'd expect the continued slide in the pound to put off new immigrants and entice both existing migrants and some educated young locals to up sticks. Auf Wiedersehen Pet mk2.

Oldies will be happy that the immgrunts are leaving. 

they think their houses "kept their values" 

And blame foreigners, energy companies and "greedy supermarkets" for the rises in prices.

Edited by hayder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Considering you didn't actually put a price on anything else then I suppose adding it up at all isn't a big issue in these terms.

Opportunity cost of other stuff is also important, and real.

 The point is some things can't be easily valued. What price would you pay to not be evicted by a spiv LL? Not easy to quantify. 

Opportunity cost based on chucking your deposit in the stock market for example? Those costs aren't easy to calculate. I agree it's important when making decisions, but only when the decisions are comparable, e.g renting for life v buying for life for example (the comparison should be about the opportunity costs of going for one type of housing provision over another). Or investing in one factory over another. 

From memory you've done a detailed analysis before and posted here (apologies if I'm confusing you with someone else).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't listen to all the nominal / real/ inflation nonsense.

If I gave you £1000 100 years ago it would buy more than what £1000 would buy you 75 years ago

If I gave you £1000 75 years ago it would buy more than what £100 would buy you 50 years ago

If I gave you £1000 50 years ago it would buy more than what £1000 would buy you 25 years ago

If I gave you £1000 25 years ago it would buy more than what £1000 would buy you today.

Are you seeing the pattern here? As the bank creates infinitely more money, the value of said money goes down.

Get some mortgage debt. Get it on a long Fix. Let the banks money creation scam work for you rather than against you.

In terms of GBP, unless they start destroying money instead of creating it, the price of everything is only going one way , UP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

over the last 100 years the pound has lost 80% of its value vs USD. So if you do need to keep "cash" savings... don't keep it in pounds!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, adarmo said:

 The point is some things can't be easily valued. What price would you pay to not be evicted by a spiv LL? Not easy to quantify. 

Opportunity cost based on chucking your deposit in the stock market for example? Those costs aren't easy to calculate. I agree it's important when making decisions, but only when the decisions are comparable, e.g renting for life v buying for life for example (the comparison should be about the opportunity costs of going for one type of housing provision over another). Or investing in one factory over another. 

From memory you've done a detailed analysis before and posted here (apologies if I'm confusing you with someone else).

Drawing my fangs in, yes there are intangibles. I'd say buying well is better than renting badly and vice versa.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Drawing my fangs in, yes there are intangibles. I'd say buying well is better than renting badly and vice versa.

If I asked you in 2008 about prices in 2015, would you also give the same answer?

I'm really trying to understand some of you guys, because, well, look what's happened in the last 7 years?

Buying has been better than renting pretty much for all eternity.

We are getting to the point where its getting embarrassing. Can you imagine in 2028 you saying the same thing with the price of a 3 bed semi at 2billion? :/

Can you be convinced you've been wrong?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

If I asked you in 2008 about prices in 2015, would you also give the same answer?

I'm really trying to understand some of you guys, because, well, look what's happened in the last 7 years?

Buying has been better than renting pretty much for all eternity.

We are getting to the point where its getting embarrassing. Can you imagine in 2028 you saying the same thing with the price of a 3 bed semi at 2billion? 😕

Can you be convinced you've been wrong?

Do you understand basic terminology like opportunity cost and the money illusion? Go on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Simhadri said:

Could house prices in 2025 be cheaper than now ?

Prices aren't sustainable at the current level. So many people have to pay back IO or HTB or liar loans. Prices probably can't stay this high without further support.

S24 is likely to have a big impact. There is also quite likely to be a recession and interest rate increases during this period. A Labour government might cause prices to fall, or motivate the current lot to do something which would cause them to fall.

I doubt they will fall sharply and rebound quickly. The question is how far they fall and how long it takes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Do you understand basic terminology like opportunity cost and the money illusion? Go on.

No I have no experience with that terminology.

At the same time though, I have not been answering that question with "Yes" for the last 10 years.

Look mate, I get your really invested in your point of view, but if you wake up tomorrow and its 2009, you buy bro.

There comes a point where you have to be honest with yourself. you got it wrong.

Feel free to post a graph though, showing how if we wait another 200 years you might be right.

cmon man :/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think relative to wages they will be.

There is no way the Tory party will be able to rig the housing market for another 7 years with tax payers money.

Demographics are against them now,  i predict  the Tory party will get decimated in the local elections and it'll set a precedent for the future. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

If I asked you in 2008 about prices in 2015, would you also give the same answer?

I'm really trying to understand some of you guys, because, well, look what's happened in the last 7 years?

Buying has been better than renting pretty much for all eternity.

We are getting to the point where its getting embarrassing. Can you imagine in 2028 you saying the same thing with the price of a 3 bed semi at 2billion? :/

Can you be convinced you've been wrong?

Here is a reminder of the interest rate changes:

Thu, 02 Nov 2017 0.5000
Thu, 04 Aug 2016 0.2500
Thu, 05 Mar 2009 0.5000
Thu, 05 Feb 2009 1.0000
Thu, 08 Jan 2009 1.5000
Thu, 04 Dec 2008 2.0000
Thu, 06 Nov 2008 3.0000
Wed, 08 Oct 2008 4.5000
Thu, 10 Apr 2008 5.0000
Thu, 07 Feb 2008 5.2500
Thu, 06 Dec 2007 5.5000

 

Is the base rate likely to be reduced to -4%?

Is the government going to bail out every BTLer, IOer etc.? Even if any policymaker wanted to replicate the increases of the last 10 years, how could they?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

No I have no experience with that terminology.

.

Look mate, I get your really invested in your point of view, but if you wake up tomorrow and its 2009, you buy bro.

 

Err, yes I agree about 2009 thru 2012 ish. I would have done but we in temporary employment at the time not sure where I'd be living/working in near future.

I did pile on aggressively to the stockmarket at that point however instead.

But that fact you don't know basic terminology emphasises the shallowness of your logic. Up to you of you think the way you do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, TryingToWin said:

If I asked you in 2008 about prices in 2015, would you also give the same answer?

I'm really trying to understand some of you guys, because, well, look what's happened in the last 7 years?

Buying has been better than renting pretty much for all eternity.

We are getting to the point where its getting embarrassing. Can you imagine in 2028 you saying the same thing with the price of a 3 bed semi at 2billion? :/

Can you be convinced you've been wrong?

Does the estate agency you work for have Minis or Fiats in the company Livery ?

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Maynardgravy said:

Hey TryingToTroll,

Where I live prices are down from last year so yeah, it can happen, it is happening, it will get worse (better).

Worried much?

When the entire industry  told you to buy a house coz prices are only going up, did you call them all trolls?

Were they all trolling and all the figures and sales happening for last 10 years are all some elaborate prank?

Or were you just wrong?

I remember in 2009, the people being labelled as trolls were the ones saying prices are only going up.
I think time has proven who the trolls are.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.