Nationwide April 2018

[rantnrave]

Latest update out at 7am

More London down, north up??

[Slimline]

+0.2% seasonally adjusted

[RomfordDon]

Still it goes up

[LetsBuild]

Well that’s the spring bounce done, have we have the summer crash now please?

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

Whenever an Interested Party has control of an index they will, understandably, do everything to spin it in their direction.  Until HPC has a creditable and early Index, it will be reliant on third rate, questionable, data.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Slimline said:

+0.2% seasonally adjusted

So if it was seasonally adjusted I take it that the rise was much bigger, f*** this I am just sick of it.

[hurlerontheditch]

1 minute ago, inbruges said:

So if it was seasonally adjusted I take it that the rise was much bigger, f*** this I am just sick of it.

unfortunately the market is going to maintain its movement longer than I am willing to wait for a crash at this stage

[CanAffordWontPay]

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2018/Apr_2018.pdf

[maverick73]

1 minute ago, inbruges said:

So if it was seasonally adjusted I take it that the rise was much bigger, f*** this I am just sick of it.

These are ripple effects from London 2 years ago.. as affordability cannot be attained in area of choice, so they jump to the next area driving up value... until a point when London becomes affordable again then prices reverse. Which they will from combination of business closures and the european exit creates less demand for goods and seevices. Thats the key to stopping the false dawn of wealth affordability.

[btd1981]

Isn't this really the nationwide 'how much do we want to lend' index?

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

unfortunately the market is going to maintain its movement longer than I am willing to wait for a crash at this stage

To be fair I knew this and have been saying it to posters that have started silly threads that have suggested we have already started a property crash when in fact we are just in the danger zone and in a position for things to crash should an event occur, big difference.

Or put it another way the property market is in the centre of a minefield with a dangerous exit still to come, I still can see a possible 15 year wait for a crash.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Guest

[btd1981]

I can't believe it can possibly go any higher...but then I've been thinking that for about five years

[lostinessex]

I don't think this is particularly unexpected - if feels to me like we've hit a plateau of affordability but I'd expect price to nudge up slightly as wages increase. We're now just waiting for something to tip it into boom or bust - and to my mind there's plenty of stuff in the pipeline on the negative side - the new BTL tax changes (and the effect of those won't really be felt until tax returns start being filled in at the end of the year) and imminent interest rate rises. We're also due a recession sometime soon. Of course something to nudge it back into boom territory could come along too (government interference, spring to mind, but who knows maybe brexit leading to wage rises due to staff shortages).

Getting annual HPI to go negative will take time but I have  a feeling once it does it could escalate quickly as all the feedback-loops that feed a boom work the same way in the other direction (banks are happy to lend when asset prices are rising fueling the boom further, but they'll withdraw credit as soon as prices start to fall which will in turn push down prices further)

It's a game of patience now

[Sperm Donor]

Very disappointing. Interest rate rise next month please...

[Andy T]

you could call it up, or about the same.

[rantnrave]

New peak price set by a considerable margin, disappointingly.

[TJHooker]

2 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

New peak price set by a considerable margin, disappointingly.

Yes this is the reality unless you've a few million pound to buy in central London.

The amount of state funded props make it a difficult bubble to pop.

I've  waited 15 years and prices are at a level that just staggers me (£270-300k for 3 bed ex council houses in need of renovation), i'd need a 30-40% drop just to get to pre Help to Buy levels and those prices were sky high hence why i didn't buy.

[RomfordDon]

1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

I can't believe it can possibly go any higher...but then I've been thinking that for about five years

About 15 for me

[GreenDevil]

I see nothing but rising prices.. Even the flood of BTL. With the constant reruns of old property prices on programs from 2010, showing 3 bed semis for 200k and detqched for 300k  is it any surprise the mantra of prices always rise being conditioned into the minds of the public.

[winkie]

For some, they could buy, but they don't want to forgo a few pleasures they can now afford to pay a mortgage on a place they don't feel is worth the money.......but the bigger reason could be to commit 25 plus years of work that is often irratic, the uncertainty of regular income and possible income voids......taking on huge mortgage debt and the responsibility that goes with it is not for everyone.......then there is the negitive equity possibility, but almost sure after 25years of repaying equity will be positive.

[Guest]

The possible trigger for the crash could also have been announced today, GDP has fallen drastically and is bordering on recession, though I do think it needs 2 or 3 qtrs. I personally have been praying for a slow down in my work so I can take a holiday, they say be careful what you wish for as things have slowed up a lot, something I was so happy about as I am off to Kefalonia next week.

[TJHooker]

23 minutes ago, inbruges said:

The possible trigger for the crash could also have been announced today, GDP has fallen drastically and is bordering on recession, though I do think it needs 2 or 3 qtrs. I personally have been praying for a slow down in my work so I can take a holiday, they say be careful what you wish for as things have slowed up a lot, something I was so happy about as I am off to Kefalonia next week.

The thing is should we get a recession it could mean negative interest rates, more QE, and a new Term Funding Scam.

Recessions seem to be bad for house prices and people still in work, but are good for people who do sweet FA but own assets.

[rantnrave]

Chance of an IR hike in May looking less and less likely now too.

[cashinmattress]

7 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

unfortunately the market is going to maintain its movement longer than I am willing to wait for a crash at this stage

Hell yeah.

"Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent". John Maynard Keynes.

[bear.getting.old]

9 hours ago, RomfordDon said:

About 15 for me

Same. Thing is all bubbles must pop unless interfered with, but the resulting pop will be eventually bigger.

Buy in another country where the prices aren't insane if you can't wait. If you can and it pops then buy. If it doesn't, admit defeat at 60 and move to the Phillipines. The UK is a shithole anyway.

Edited April 27, 2018 by bear.getting.old