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gruffydd

March mortgage lending fell 21%

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Gross mortgage lending by British high street banks = £20.5bn in March, 2.3 percent down on same month last year. Total number of mortgage approvals for new house purchases fell 21 per cent to 38,710 https://www.ft.com/content/197e4e70-4930-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

It is reflecting what I am seeing in the market - seeing jitters (in the north and west - well beyond London!) - other than in Wales which is still pounding along on its way to dystopia - no economy to speak of but crazy house prices - as mentioned a few months ago - increasing numbers of international tourists - Irish, German, you name it - are discovering Wales for the first time - Snowdonia in particular, which seems to be pushing demand in rural areas! 

Edited by gruffydd

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6 minutes ago, gruffydd said:


Gross mortgage lending by British high street banks = £20.5bn in March, 2.3 percent down on same month last year. Total number of mortgage approvals for new house purchases fell 21 per cent to 38,710 https://www.ft.com/content/197e4e70-4930-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

It is reflecting what I am seeing in the market - seeing jitters (in the north and west - well beyond London!) - other than in Wales which is still pounding along on its way to dystopia - no economy to speak of but crazy house prices - as mentioned a few months ago - increasing numbers of international tourists - Irish, German, you name it - are discovering Wales for the first time - Snowdonia in particular, which seems to be pushing demand in rural areas! 

Excellent news. Another reason to expect a negative Q1 GDP print tomorrow morning.

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Yep, exactly what I'm seeing in Wales, specifically Anglesey and Snowdonia... the lowest GVA in the entire UK (which basically means the most economically inactive areas of the WHOLE of the UK) yet house prices are going up and up and up. 

Almost exclusively fuelled by holiday home/ holiday let purchasers. 

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1 hour ago, gruffydd said:


Gross mortgage lending by British high street banks = £20.5bn in March, 2.3 percent down on same month last year. Total number of mortgage approvals for new house purchases fell 21 per cent to 38,710 https://www.ft.com/content/197e4e70-4930-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

It is reflecting what I am seeing in the market - seeing jitters (in the north and west - well beyond London!) - other than in Wales which is still pounding along on its way to dystopia - no economy to speak of but crazy house prices - as mentioned a few months ago - increasing numbers of international tourists - Irish, German, you name it - are discovering Wales for the first time - Snowdonia in particular, which seems to be pushing demand in rural areas! 

Just out of interest, are the Welsh nationalists still around? I remember way back in time there was always lots of news stories of holiday cottages burning down at their hands. I remember that 'Not the nine O'clock news' sketch about 'come home to a roaring fire, buy a cottage in Wales'. Or is it like Cornwall? I was born down there and while the Kernow nationalists are quiet nowadays, they never went away, they are still there if you go to the right pub, in the right town, in the right company and the conversation gets onto that topic.

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I think the Sons of Glyndwr are pretty much ancient history now unfortunately. 

 

In fact Welsh Nationalism is actually now being used to restrict house building and thereby keep prices inflated... there was a recent case where pp was refused for a large development in, I think, Bangor... one of the main objections was that it would apparently have a detrimental effect on Welsh language and culture!

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48 minutes ago, frankvw said:

Just out of interest, are the Welsh nationalists still around? I remember way back in time there was always lots of news stories of holiday cottages burning down at their hands. I remember that 'Not the nine O'clock news' sketch about 'come home to a roaring fire, buy a cottage in Wales'. Or is it like Cornwall? I was born down there and while the Kernow nationalists are quiet nowadays, they never went away, they are still there if you go to the right pub, in the right town, in the right company and the conversation gets onto that topic.

Not really - they have morphed into a taxpayer funded establishment - the whole thing just stopped in 1992 - never to be seen again. Too many vested interests in property these days - in the places I know the locals have as many holiday cottages as anyone else. 

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11 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

North Wales is more nationalistic than South Wales. They speak Welsh far more in North Wales.

It's misunderstood really - the heartland - y fro - stretches from the south coast - Carmarthenshire to Anglesey - some of the most extreme nationalists were and are from the south west - even very anglo areas. 

That said, y fro (the language heartland) no longer exists - most of the villages I know are now mainly retirees (and younger) from England and South Wales - and they seem happy enough. 

Edited by gruffydd

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49 minutes ago, nome said:

I think the Sons of Glyndwr are pretty much ancient history now unfortunately. 

 

In fact Welsh Nationalism is actually now being used to restrict house building and thereby keep prices inflated... there was a recent case where pp was refused for a large development in, I think, Bangor... one of the main objections was that it would apparently have a detrimental effect on Welsh language and culture!

Welsh nationalism is seemingly  the polite term for hatred of the English .. lets call a spade a spade as we all know vast swathes of the Welsh and Jocks despise the English.

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1 hour ago, TJHooker said:

 lets call a spade a spade as we all know vast swathes of the Welsh and Jocks despise the English.

They speak very highly of you, too.

 

Edited by mrtickle

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2 hours ago, TonyJ said:

Are the English more welcome in the heartland now? I'm thinking about moving to Wales, and have seen an old nearly derelict bungalow in Carmarthenshire that may be of interest as a redevelopment project, although I'm not going to view it until the ripple hopefully reaches the Irish Sea.

I went to Wales and stopped in a shop for directions to a hotel. The shopkeeper had a local customer in there at the till and suggested he would know where it was. He ignored me like I wasn't there, obviously because I was English. That put me right off Wales.

Irish sea ripple?

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2 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Not really - they have morphed into a taxpayer funded establishment - the whole thing just stopped in 1992 - never to be seen again. Too many vested interests in property these days - in the places I know the locals have as many holiday cottages as anyone else. 

 

2 hours ago, TonyJ said:

Are the English more welcome in the heartland now? I'm thinking about moving to Wales, and have seen an old nearly derelict bungalow in Carmarthenshire that may be of interest as a redevelopment project, although I'm not going to view it until the ripple hopefully reaches the Irish Sea.

Well it's probably about 1/3 first gen English - take 2nd gen probably a good half - and the recent English migrants have married into Welsh families so it's very mixed now really. 

Some of the most ardent Welsh language people I know are English people who have learnt the language. 

Some villages are a tad parochial - other are very open - you get a big diversity of places - Carmarthenshire is the "cool" county in the south at the mo - you have Y Polyn and Wright's Food Emporium and so on - all rather lovely - I adore Kidwelly, Dinefwr, Brechfa - even north of Whitland in those wooded valleys - not that well known really but worth a go - the festival in Laugharne (The Laugharne Weekend) is worth keeping an eye open for. 

Something to bear in mind - very diverse place - Carmarthen town was English speaking and snobby going back centuries (not so much anymore) and looked down on the Welsh speaking country boys around about. 

Kidwelly and down there has a very strange history - aligned with the French during 100 years war. 

Laugharne and down there had big Flemish settlement so is different again - lots of Flemish weavers and fishermen. They left their own mark. 

The industrial areas like Ammanford always pretty diverse with biggish Irish and English immigration up until 20th C to work in mines. 

 

Edited by gruffydd

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2 hours ago, TJHooker said:

Welsh nationalism is seemingly  the polite term for hatred of the English .. lets call a spade a spade as we all know vast swathes of the Welsh and Jocks despise the English.

It's a complicated matter - more I find in Wales tensions between the west/north west and the south - if you want dislike that's where you'll find it. All of Wales has a large English population and of course bonds of marriage and so on with the local Welsh so things are softened. 

The reason South Wales became English speaking was English settlement in the 19thC - in the eastern valleys 60% of the population was English born by the end of the 20th C for example - it's a complicated thing. 

And plenty of Welsh nationalists ARE English or have close English family. The guy who started Welsh nationalism was born in Birkenhead! One of the most strident of Welsh princes - Owain Lawgoch - was from Surrey! 

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Very interesting about Wales. Back to mortgage lending for house purchases ....the driver of HPI.. falling in what is supposed to be the spring bounce...best news in a while.

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23 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

I went to Wales and stopped in a shop for directions to a hotel. The shopkeeper had a local customer in there at the till and suggested he would know where it was. He ignored me like I wasn't there, obviously because I was English. That put me right off Wales.

Irish sea ripple?

It's usually more of a hyperlocalism thing you get in some communities... I think the rudest "local" I ever saw (in my home village) blanked a guy from Porthcawl because he was from "South Wales"... also recall a businessman being blanked in my village because he was from 15 miles up the road. 

Once I was in North Wales and got told we were all cretins in South Wales because we were dossers - that was interesting! I didn't reply. 

The thing to watch for in Wales is hyperlocalism really - usually villages at the end of roads (and I find on the coast) - there are a few that are really turned in on themselves. 

The English will think it's because they're English but the hyperlocals are probably even nastier to people from 10 miles down the road - if they're from "The Valleys"... well, again - it can be nasty. 
 

Edited by gruffydd

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I am English and I don't like "The United Kingdom" and I would be very happy for all these Wales, Scotland and Ireland people to exit our so-called "union". The dedicated Brexiters demanding control of our own borders and so on paradoxically love the UK and go very quiet when I say good idea let's go the whole way.

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7 hours ago, Wayward said:

Very interesting about Wales. Back to mortgage lending for house purchases ....the driver of HPI.. falling in what is supposed to be the spring bounce...best news in a while.

I'd like to see a chart of mortgage lending and HPI.  Theoretically  there'd be a direct correlation.

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7 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Right I see! Don't understand how Wales is going up fast according to Nationwide but lending is down.

As I mentioned earlier... almost entirely fuelled by holiday home/holiday let/retiree incomer purchases, many of which I'm guessing are mortgage free cash buyers.

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9 hours ago, TJHooker said:

Welsh nationalism is seemingly  the polite term for hatred of the English .. lets call a spade a spade as we all know vast swathes of the Welsh and Jocks despise the English.

 

As an English person living and working in Wales I've got no issue at all with Welsh hatred for the English (although I've never actually experienced it), especially any hatred for the holiday home buyers and the generally obnoxious tourists... in fact I've probably got more hatred for the English than the Welsh have!

 

Back to my case of the housing development getting turned down due to the impact on Welsh culture and language... why not simply impose a local occupancy clause on some/all of it? Which would prevent the houses being snapped up by the English as holiday homes/lets.

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9 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I am English and I don't like "The United Kingdom" and I would be very happy for all these Wales, Scotland and Ireland people to exit our so-called "union". The dedicated Brexiters demanding control of our own borders and so on paradoxically love the UK and go very quiet when I say good idea let's go the whole way.

I agree it'd be better to all go our separate ways, but Wales/N Ireland would lose its sponsor and would become a very poor country. Scotland would be down circa £3000 per person and England would rid itself 3 socialist states who cost it a fortune.

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Just now, TonyJ said:

Wales, N. Ireland and Scotland don't want to separate from the UK, though. The hardline nationalists might want to, and make a lot of noise about it, but the general public don't want to.

N Ireland will eventually as demographics make it inevitable, the younger Scots voted to leave ... as for the Welsh they know what side their bread is buttered and will continue to milk the English.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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