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HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

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The most up-to-date HM Land Registry sales figures available for London show the number of completed house sales in December 2017 fell by 25% to 6,344 compared with 8,460 in December 2016.

Month Sales 2017 Sales 2016 Difference %
November 6,834 8,178 -16.4
December 6,344 8,460 -25.0

these price falls are skewed with such a drop in volume

and with interest rates not likely to go up it is going to continue

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hopefully by year end we'll see 20% off. by the end of 2019 early 2020... London houses could be half their 2017 values.

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3 minutes ago, hayder said:

hopefully by year end we'll see 20% off. by the end of 2019 early 2020... London houses could be half their 2017 values.

I would eat my hat (well buy one first then eat it!) if falls that big are seen

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Just now, hurlerontheditch said:

I would eat my hat (well buy one first then eat it!) if falls that big are seen

I am being optimistic of course.

and if falls are big it would probably be on rather low volumes... and more importantly, it would be sales of new builds from desperate developers rather than resales from existing owner occupiers who are likely to refuse selling (me 'ome is me golden goose). 

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1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

I would eat my hat (well buy one first then eat it!) if falls that big are seen

Tend to agree , to start with should falls like that start to happen Labour will suddenly decide cheaper housing is bad and demand the goverment do something and the Tories will react with another insane HTB type of support 

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9 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

Tend to agree , to start with should falls like that start to happen Labour will suddenly decide cheaper housing is bad and demand the goverment do something and the Tories will react with another insane HTB type of support 

or HTHTB (help the help to buy)

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Skyscraper Index suggests that London is due a hefty correction. B)

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/londons-soaring-skyline-skyscraper-projects-pass-500-for-first-time-as-giant-towers-planned-in-all-a3816861.html

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The number of towers being planned or built in London has passed the 500 mark for the first time as the skyscraper trend spills into the suburbs.

Last year’s tower tally of 510 is a rise of more than 12 per cent on the 455 recorded in 2016, according to New London Architecture’s annual count of buildings of at least 20 storeys (their definition of a skyscraper).

The think tank’s survey, released today, also found that a record 115 towers are under construction in the capital, up 26 per cent from 91 in 2016.

The figures will renew concerns that the skyline is under threat from towers being waved through by councils and the Mayor. However, there are also signs that Brexit uncertainty, rising construction costs and falling demand for expensive central London flats could slow the rate at which skyscrapers go up, although perhaps only temporarily.
 
The survey, using figures from property data specialists EG and consultancy GL Hearn, found that only 18 towers were actually finished last year, down sharply on 2016. The pace of completions is expected to rise again to record levels this year. Those completed last year include Vauxhall Sky Gardens, the two riverside Corniche towers in Lambeth, Manhattan Plaza in Poplar, Lombard Wharf in Battersea and the Lighterman in Greenwich Peninsula.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

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5 minutes ago, Freki said:

Promoter starts to meet reality: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/45193324?search_identifier=041a3a0db1823f4141029fa761c4887f#YbJt5rbOpG6SSrwi.97

Would love to see the faces of the others who bought in the building

Wow! Nice to see such a big drop but this really does highlight the Alice in Wonderland country that this is. So much 'money' for such a piece of sh1t.

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5 minutes ago, Sperm Donor said:

Wow! Nice to see such a big drop but this really does highlight the Alice in Wonderland country that this is. So much 'money' for such a piece of sh1t.

It dropped by the price of a new Lamborghini and it's still 3x overpriced. ******ing hell. 

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25 minutes ago, Sperm Donor said:

Wow! Nice to see such a big drop but this really does highlight the Alice in Wonderland country that this is. So much 'money' for such a piece of sh1t.

The usb charging points are worth at least 100k

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1 hour ago, Freki said:

Promoter starts to meet reality: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/45193324?search_identifier=041a3a0db1823f4141029fa761c4887f#YbJt5rbOpG6SSrwi.97

Would love to see the faces of the others who bought in the building

Even at that reduced price it is nuts...the mortgage calculator assumes 1.5% for 25 years...what could possibly go wrong.  Who on earth is getting involved with this nonsense...?

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6 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Even at that reduced price it is nuts...

Hence why I use the word "starts". I mean splurging this amount of money without being able to provide shelter to a family...

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14 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Even at that reduced price it is nuts...the mortgage calculator assumes 1.5% for 25 years...what could possibly go wrong.  Who on earth is getting involved with this nonsense...?

The usual City grifters spunking off their helicopter money as if they'd earned it.

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7 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

these price falls are skewed with such a drop in volume

and with interest rates not likely to go up it is going to continue

There probably isn't any volume drop; certainly you're ill-advised to infer one from those statistics. More likely it's the Land Registry lag

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From the ONS link in the OP

image.png.093aa046c6df7eb339e4685914172a3b.png

Annualised, -2.1% month on month falls give London house prices down by 22% in a year. If you apply 20% falls to the average London home then you get a nominal fall of about £106,000.

A buy-to-let flat financed at 65% LTV will become a flat at 83% LTV and you'd need to find about 6% of the original purchase price (8% of the new value) to restore the 75% LTV so you could refinance onto a teaser rate and not get bumped to the SVR (typically 5%). Not unreasonable to suggest that a London BTL flat cost £300k, and 6% of £300k is £18,000.

 

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Guest
5 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

From the ONS link in the OP

image.png.093aa046c6df7eb339e4685914172a3b.png

Annualised, -2.1% month on month falls give London house prices down by 22% in a year. If you apply 20% falls to the average London home then you get a nominal fall of about £106,000.

A buy-to-let flat financed at 65% LTV will become a flat at 83% LTV and you'd need to find about 6% of the original purchase price (8% of the new value) to restore the 75% LTV so you could refinance onto a teaser rate and not get bumped to the SVR (typically 5%). Not unreasonable to suggest that a London BTL flat cost £300k, and 6% of £300k is £18,000.

 

Nice :)

Did anyone buying in that block mentioned a few posts up ever live there? Or are they just assets in a s/s in Hong Kong?

Edited by Guest

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Looking at the breakdown of the annual fall in London, more bad news for investors who tend to be focused on flats (as per the analysts at the Bank of England, link).

image.png.2495dc34ee62f773f355f9e7e150ceb6.png

 

 

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