Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Catch22

The Dark Secret Behind Greenspan's Success

Recommended Posts

here are some article quotes, well worth a read IMO

Last year four out of ten new homebuyers in the US put down no deposit at all; in the last 18 years mortgage debt has jumped from $1.8trn to $8.2trn; consumer debt levels have quadrupled in the same time period.......................

But no one can borrow and buy forever. Even Greenspan knows that. Last year he warned that periods such as this often end in tears: as soon as people get nervous, he said, risk premiums go up, asset values go down and debt is liquidated with major losses being made all round along the way.

So here’s the question: is anyone nervous yet? Well if they aren’t, they should be. The rate of growth in the US economy has slowed significantly, house prices are coming off the boil fast (in Southern California house sale volumes in December were their worst of 4 years and in San Francisco prices actually fell 2.6% between November and December), and, while most are still in denial about it, inflation is rising.

Article Link

Edited by Catch22

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here are some article quotes, well worth a read IMO

Last year four out of ten new homebuyers in the US put down no deposit at all; in the last 18 years mortgage debt has jumped from $1.8trn to $8.2trn; consumer debt levels have quadrupled in the same time period.......................

But no one can borrow and buy forever. Even Greenspan knows that. Last year he warned that periods such as this often end in tears: as soon as people get nervous, he said, risk premiums go up, asset values go down and debt is liquidated with major losses being made all round along the way.

So here’s the question: is anyone nervous yet? Well if they aren’t, they should be. The rate of growth in the US economy has slowed significantly, house prices are coming off the boil fast (in Southern California house sale volumes in December were their worst of 4 years and in San Francisco prices actually fell 2.6% between November and December), and, while most are still in denial about it, inflation is rising.

Article Link

Merryn Somerset Webb's record isn't outstanding. She has been the ultimate doom and gloom merchant for years. HPC inevitable, equities are overvalued, Dow will hit 5,500 etc etc. She's been correct on gold and I'll give her half a tick for oil but otherwise very poor.

I used to subscribe to Moneyweek but thought their relentless trashing of equities in '03 and '04 was ludicrous. Indeed, if you'd followed their advice to sell shares, huge profits could have been foregone. James Ferguson speaks sense though.

I met her once at some breakfast meeting and she isn't that much of a looker. Annuziatta Rees-Mogg, deputy editor, is quite a looker OTOH.

BTW, best equity analyst I've come across is Ken Fisher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not nervous. Got nothing to lose :P Really - no real savings, CC debt of $2k that never seems to go away and I'm racking up the student debt

On the upside I can move to the UK once I graduate and that way I wont have to repay that debt. But that might mean I might have to move into TTRTR's BTL :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.