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gruffydd

Kate Barker Speaks

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Bring it on Katy! Just the hint will drop sterling into the black hole. High IR are the only positives holding Gordon's miracle economy together as everything else is unravelling.

Oh what joy, BoE drops rates while the Fed goes up. Time to get out of sterling.

Here is a picture of Katy--I nominate her as the pin up for HPC.co.uk

http://www.audacity.org/Images%20for%20aud...Kate-Barker.jpg

Why? Because lower IR will be Gordon's undoing and the end of this whole tragic debt bubble. How? Because a sterling crash will destroy confidence like nothing else.

Edited by Realistbear

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Bring it on Katy! Just the hint will drop sterling into the black hole. High IR are the only positives holding Gordon's miracle economy together as everything else is unravelling.

Oh what joy, BoE drops rates while the Fed goes up. Time to get out of sterling.

Yep thats my take on the situation. In the next couple of months Brown will direct a cut in rates and the MPC will do just as he commands. Sterling will fall and he will call for the UK to pull together to meet the demands of the global economy by minimising wage demands. Discontent and strikes will follow, and the Tories will be in next time.

STR as a strategy only works if you combine cheaper renting with investment OUT of sterling. Asking prices may move up slightly but low transactions will make it almost impossible to realise the market price. Forced sellers will be a combination of pensioners seeing the erosion of their savings and higher bills looking to downsize, and BTL who see greener grass in the commodities field and are facing hassle from banks and lower yields, there will also be a growing number of repossessions from those who are now living beyond their means no matter what the level of interest rates.

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The poor response of manufacturing output to the robust growth in the world economy is, she says, "precisely one of the reasons why since November I have been a little bit less confident about the forecasts we produced [that month]".

Manufacturing is being decimated by high costs across the board, both the companies themselves, their workers and nearly all services that they consume have high fixed costs and all have to occupy land which is a major part of those costs - the BOE and their low interest rate policy have done more thatn many to create and perpetuate the bubble in land costs and so THEY THEMSELVES have been instrumental in the destruction of UK manufacturing.

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Yep thats my take on the situation. In the next couple of months Brown will direct a cut in rates and the MPC will do just as he commands. Sterling will fall and he will call for the UK to pull together to meet the demands of the global economy by minimising wage demands. Discontent and strikes will follow, and the Tories will be in next time.

STR as a strategy only works if you combine cheaper renting with investment OUT of sterling. Asking prices may move up slightly but low transactions will make it almost impossible to realise the market price. Forced sellers will be a combination of pensioners seeing the erosion of their savings and higher bills looking to downsize, and BTL who see greener grass in the commodities field and are facing hassle from banks and lower yields, there will also be a growing number of repossessions from those who are now living beyond their means no matter what the level of interest rates.

I STR because of a job move from the US back to the UK. I held my $ because I had no confidence in the UK economy given the property bubble and commitment to the debt mountain. The US is in a broadly similar position but with a much more resilient economy that is not as dependant on HPI to survive. Also, the housing bubbles are localized unlike the UK which has universal HPI and unaffordability. Nothing holds Brown's "miracle ecomony" together other than the thing that will be its undoing: unsustainable house prices. With FTBs effectively out of the picture the musical chair game has come to an end and because chains can only move if someone buys at the bottom. Kill the bottom feeder and you starve the big fish at the top. Its basic economics. Its not surprising that new debt is being created to hold the bubble together for awhile longer.

Edited by Realistbear

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Bring it on Katy! Just the hint will drop sterling into the black hole. High IR are the only positives holding Gordon's miracle economy together as everything else is unravelling.

Oh what joy, BoE drops rates while the Fed goes up. Time to get out of sterling.

Here is a picture of Katy--I nominate her as the pin up for HPC.co.uk

http://www.audacity.org/Images%20for%20aud...Kate-Barker.jpg

Why? Because lower IR will be Gordon's undoing and the end of this whole tragic debt bubble. How? Because a sterling crash will destroy confidence like nothing else.

What about if they just leave IRs unchanged for the whole year? Another year wasted waiting for something to give. No sterling crash, HPI at 15%, no consumer crash, no withdrawl of credit.

It's Groundhog day. For 2006, see '05, '04, 03, 02, 01, 00, '99, '98, '97 -

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Yep thats my take on the situation. In the next couple of months Brown will direct a cut in rates and the MPC will do just as he commands. Sterling will fall and he will call for the UK to pull together to meet the demands of the global economy by minimising wage demands. Discontent and strikes will follow, and the Tories will be in next time.

STR as a strategy only works if you combine cheaper renting with investment OUT of sterling. Asking prices may move up slightly but low transactions will make it almost impossible to realise the market price. Forced sellers will be a combination of pensioners seeing the erosion of their savings and higher bills looking to downsize, and BTL who see greener grass in the commodities field and are facing hassle from banks and lower yields, there will also be a growing number of repossessions from those who are now living beyond their means no matter what the level of interest rates.

But surely Gordon Brown can have no influence over the MPC decisions - he made them totally independant of political interference I seem to recall :lol:

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What about if they just leave IRs unchanged for the whole year? Another year wasted waiting for something to give. No sterling crash, HPI at 15%, no consumer crash, no withdrawl of credit.

It's Groundhog day. For 2006, see '05, '04, 03, 02, 01, 00, '99, '98, '97 -

You're assuming IR rates are the only factor in causing a crash. They're not as has been pointed out several times on the forum. There is a big difference between perceived wealth and actual wealth.

I think Gordon Browns "no more boom and bust" is tied down in part to low IR. The next couple of years are going to be a very interesting ride.

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The poor response of manufacturing output to the robust growth in the world economy is, she says, "precisely one of the reasons why since November I have been a little bit less confident about the forecasts we produced [that month]".

Manufacturing is being decimated by high costs across the board, both the companies themselves, their workers and nearly all services that they consume have high fixed costs and all have to occupy land which is a major part of those costs - the BOE and their low interest rate policy have done more thatn many to create and perpetuate the bubble in land costs and so THEY THEMSELVES have been instrumental in the destruction of UK manufacturing.

Standard line from BoE disciples. "Well, UK manufacturers have to be innovative."

BoE never have and never will care about something they know nothing about.

btp

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Bring it on Katy! Just the hint will drop sterling into the black hole. High IR are the only positives holding Gordon's miracle economy together as everything else is unravelling.

Oh what joy, BoE drops rates while the Fed goes up. Time to get out of sterling.

OK, I'm going to ask what will probably sound like the most stupid questions you ever heard, but there you go.

If the BoE decided against all logic to keep reducing interest rates, what would the effects be?

If sterling crashes, how will this affect the FTB wannabes on this site?

How likely do people think it is that the BoE might decide to go for another rate cut?

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The US is in a broadly similar position but with a much more resilient economy that is not as dependant on HPI to survive.

<cough>

Have you seen the bar chart showing remortgaging's contribution

to US GDP ? Think Durch posted a link to it a few days ago.

Here's a read for you too:

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/jain/2006/0130.html

Havn't read it but I imagine it's suitably bearish.

Pent

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OK, I'm going to ask what will probably sound like the most stupid questions you ever heard, but there you go.

If the BoE decided against all logic to keep reducing interest rates, what would the effects be?

If sterling crashes, how will this affect the FTB wannabes on this site?

How likely do people think it is that the BoE might decide to go for another rate cut?

Interest rate futures are currently at 4.59% for June - NO CUT. See my thread.

I think some of the recent demand can be attributable to muppets thinking rates will be down at 1% soon.

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If the BoE decided against all logic to keep reducing interest rates, what would the effects be?

Petrol would be over a pound a liter, manufacturing import costs would explode, house prices could go anywhere... quite likely down as rampant inflation (actual real-world inflation rather than the BoE's fantasy inflation) would hit incomes hard.

If sterling crashes, how will this affect the FTB wannabes on this site?

I'd be better off relative to house prices as most of my savings are out of sterling now.

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I STR because of a job move from the US back to the UK. I held my $ because I had no confidence in the UK economy given the property bubble and commitment to the debt mountain. The US is in a broadly similar position but with a much more resilient economy that is not as dependant on HPI to survive. Also, the housing bubbles are localized unlike the UK which has universal HPI and unaffordability. Nothing holds Brown's "miracle ecomony" together other than the thing that will be its undoing: unsustainable house prices. With FTBs effectively out of the picture the musical chair game has come to an end and because chains can only move if someone buys at the bottom. Kill the bottom feeder and you starve the big fish at the top. Its basic economics. Its not surprising that new debt is being created to hold the bubble together for awhile longer.

"....the musical chair game has come to an end ..."

YES!!!! The End is Nigh for the World's Biggest EVER Pyramid Sellling Scam [the UK "Housing Market"]....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=12762

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...sult_type=posts

Edited by eric pebble

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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