Halifax house price index - March 2018

[Mancunian284]

25 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

There very well might be but it's something of a myth to suggest that subprime caused the GFC. The bulk of mortgage defaults in the US occurred in A-rated prime lending, against second and third properties.

Excessive leveraging of bank equity using credit derivatives and structured investment vehicles facilitated the reckless and irresponsible debt creation.

In your opinion, what could cause a credit crunch rather than a credit tightening now?

 

[hurlerontheditch]

That "surprise" 1.5% jump in March for house prices reported by the Halifax, is not such good news, reckons north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf. He said:

On the face of it, the Halifax figures look quite encouraging but when you examine them in more detail one appreciates that the increase in property prices is more to do with a shortage of stock, low mortgage approvals, and subdued activity rather than any great change in the market.

[Mancunian284]

17 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

That "surprise" 1.5% jump in March for house prices reported by the Halifax, is not such good news, reckons north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf. He said:

On the face of it, the Halifax figures look quite encouraging but when you examine them in more detail one appreciates that the increase in property prices is more to do with a shortage of stock, low mortgage approvals, and subdued activity rather than any great change in the market.

So we’re likely to get ups and downs as the volume of transactions isn’t high enough to give us an accurate figure.  What surprises me most about this comment is that it’s from an EA.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Mancunian284

[zugzwang]

16 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

In your opinion, what could cause a credit crunch rather than a credit tightening now?

 

1. China's banks.

2. Trump's deficit spending.

3. A shooting war with Russia.

[Mancunian284]

3 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

1. China's banks.

2. Trump's deficit spending.

3. A shooting war with Russia.

Thank you.  

[Doner Kebab]

Oh well at least the BBC didn't run with it. We need some decent drops now to get a negative YOY this summer.

[LetsBuild]

8 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Bit harsh when the South is full of people paying shed loads to the banks in interest on their "wealthiest" assets and thinking it'll make them rich. 

 

Sorry, this was meant towards the recent trend of prices shooting up in northern cities in the face of London falling. Not saying northerners are stupid - I am one!

[Guest]

Amazing, any kind of inflation in the UK is frowned upon and stamped on hard, except housing inflation of course, that's where the rule books go out of the window, p****d off

[frederico]

The headline figure for HPC is terrible, but tptb might end up doing more to free up the market.

 

well I can dream

[crashmonitor]

10 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Bit harsh when the South is full of people paying shed loads to the banks in interest on their "wealthiest" assets and thinking it'll make them rich. 

 

We wont even get close to the stupidity of the South.  

Doesn't feel like  Northern hpi will do much.

Edited April 9, 2018 by crashmonitor

[meow]

On 09/04/2018 at 7:54 AM, stuckmojo said:

Agree on the North. I am seeing peak mania up here in Newcastle. Same thing happened in 2007 and then we all remember Northern Rock. 

Hey stuckmojo, could you elaborate on the "peak mania" in newcastle? I'm interested in what exactly it is that you're seeing?

[winkie]

On 4/9/2018 at 11:48 AM, zugzwang said:

1. China's banks.

2. Trump's deficit spending.

3. A shooting war with Russia.

 

[Bland Unsight]

Couple of things about this latest Halifax HPI

Firstly this from Neal Hudson:

Secondly, the Halifax HPI index is now owned and prepared by IHS Markit. The main release has no geographical breakdown. Bunch of outlets are carrying reports (e.g. City AM on 12 April, link and the Guardian on the same day, link) of the March Halifax HPI showing London down 3.2% in the first three months of this year (that would compound to an annualised rate of 13%) and London being down 3.8% on a year-on-year basis as of this March.

The evidence is now pretty compelling that London has rolled over. What remains to be seen is whether or not these price falls will be sustained.

[Edit: removed some nonsense predicated on ignorance - had looked for but failed to find this, h/t ItalianV6]

Edited April 13, 2018 by Beary McBearface

[Bland Unsight]

2 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

According to the Telegraph, London EAs have a feeling the market has bottomed and is on the turn.

[Bland Unsight]

From the Halifax House Price Index – Q1 UK Regional Breakdown released yesterday (again h/t to ItalianV6 for posting it on another thread):

Quote

Looking at short-term house price momentum, as measured by the quarter-on-quarter change, seven regions recorded falls in prices compared to the end of 2017. London again stood out, recording its sharpest decline in prices for nine years (-3.2%), whilst there was a fall of -1.5% seen in the South East and a decline of -1.1% in the South West. The North West saw house prices fall by -3.0% since the previous quarter.

If the sustained falls in PCL have now spread through to London, the South East and the South West that's significant.

[Doner Kebab]

7 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

From the Halifax House Price Index – Q1 UK Regional Breakdown released yesterday (again h/t to ItalianV6 for posting it on another thread):

If the sustained falls in PCL have now spread through to London, the South East and the South West that's significant.

Thanks for lighting a candle in the cathedral of house price crash Beary McBearface. It's easy to get disconsolate over one months data as I myself did earlier this week.

I'm still seeing houses sticking and having their price reduced here in the grim south east. Here's a hoping it spreads to all parts of the country during 2018 and beyond.

[Doner Kebab]

5 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

I think what makes the picture confusing is seeing all the new houses coming on to the market given the same asking prices at which other similar houses have already failed to sell. It is bizarre that new listers' asking prices are blatantly ignoring the real market, but it has the side effect of making the market appear much healthier than it is.

You are right Tony J. I'm thinking (hoping) that a lot of people believe prices have peaked so are sticking it on the market now.

One thing that worries me is that there are so many new builds around the south east at the moment that this might push average sales prices up/stop steeper drops in the short term. Then again with so many of them coming on at the same time hopefully this will mitigate any upside.

[frankvw]

13 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

I think what makes the picture confusing is seeing all the new houses coming on to the market given the same asking prices at which other similar houses have already failed to sell. It is bizarre that new listers' asking prices are blatantly ignoring the real market, but it has the side effect of making the market appear much healthier than it is.

I was walking past an estate agent last night and noticed a recent new build, 2 bed appartment was being flipped for £390K while a freehold 3 bed semi with garden and drive, few streets away, was up for £460K.

[Slimline]

11 minutes ago, frankvw said:

I was walking past an estate agent last night and noticed a recent new build, 2 bed appartment was being flipped for £390K while a freehold 3 bed semi with garden and drive, few streets away, was up for £460K.

Same round this way (Surrey). 3 Bed Semi's up for 400-450 with new build flats at 400+!!! 

Why anyone would chose a flat is beyond me.

[Bland Unsight]

14 minutes ago, frankvw said:

I was walking past an estate agent last night and noticed a recent new build, 2 bed appartment was being flipped for £390K while a freehold 3 bed semi with garden and drive, few streets away, was up for £460K.

13% of £460k is £60,000.

Delay your house purchase by a year and save £60,000.

You'd be mad not to, surely?

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, Beary McBearface said:

From the Halifax House Price Index – Q1 UK Regional Breakdown released yesterday (again h/t to ItalianV6 for posting it on another thread):

If the sustained falls in PCL have now spread through to London, the South East and the South West that's significant.

A North West fall of -3.0% feels quite significant to me also, because of its distance from the South East bubble but also bearing in mind Manchester and Liverpool being so often cited as growth areas in the mainstream media, particularly for BTL and those southern landlords apparently chasing the fantastic yields ‘up north’.

Thanks all for these rays of hope.

*They always put ‘up north’ in quotation marks. It annoys me. They may as well call it ‘not London’.

[frankvw]

9 minutes ago, Slimline said:

Same round this way (Surrey). 3 Bed Semi's up for 400-450 with new build flats at 400+!!! 

Why anyone would chose a flat is beyond me.

Exactly. The 3 bed semi was way over priced but at least it was a nice looking freehold property with decent size gardens front and back. WTF is a 2 bed flat for £400K+??? (studio flat as you get nearer towards center). A badly built 2 bed flat, at that.

[Lavalas]

Duplicate Post

Edited April 13, 2018 by Lavalas

[dpg50000]

3 hours ago, Lavalas said:

4 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

From the Halifax House Price Index – Q1 UK Regional Breakdown released yesterday (again h/t to ItalianV6 for posting it on another thread):

If the sustained falls in PCL have now spread through to London, the South East and the South West that's significant.

A North West fall of -3.0% feels quite significant to me also, because of its distance from the South East bubble but also bearing in mind Manchester and Liverpool being so often cited as growth areas in the mainstream media, particularly for BTL and those southern landlords apparently chasing the fantastic yields ‘up north’.

Thanks all for these rays of hope.

*They always put ‘up north’ in quotation marks. It annoys me. They may as well call it ‘not London’.

Yep, especially interesting if Liverpool and Manchester (currently crazy prices) aren't the fallers in the North West. Outside of those 2 areas, job prospects are largely grim in the North West (Preston, Blackburn, Burnley etc). 

 Not sure if the data is broken down any further?