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jrbxyz

How To Get Rich From A Hpc?

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There is much talk on here of at least a long-term slowdown in house prices, and perhaps a house price crash. The many many reasons for this are convincing for me too, I should add.

But this poses a question then -- if people on here are so confident about a slowdown or crash, how then can they profit from their prediction? Short-selling stocks in homebuilder companies seems one way. Any other suggestions?

I'm just curious to know if people have thought about how to profit from the impending doom!

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Shorting homebuilders could be dangerous, because their financial figures could lag the housing market. On fundamentals a lot of them are still cheap.

You could do a spread bet - or maybe even a covered warrant - but you'd have to get your timing right.

Maybe you could buy shares in a pawnbroker? However shares in Albemarle and Bond have already gone up quite a lot.

Do auctioneers make money during a crash?

What companies do repossessions? Would your conscience sleep at night investing in such a company?

Maybe you could just announce that you're going to put up a new build in Rochdale, for completion in 2010. Sell the flats for £200,000 each, then come 2008 your purchasers will be quite happy for you to buy them back for £100,000, before you've even started building. Then you scrap the project.

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Any other suggestions?

you can get good odds (49-1) on the March 2006 average uk house price being 7% lower than hbos' Decembers figure at Betfair

I'm not linked to them in any way.

e3.

Edited by echo3

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Seriously - the scale of the problem means giant recession... not just an HPC:

So:

1) Companies involved in UK jobs outsourcing

2) Distillers and Brewerys for when the newly unemployed drown their sorrows

3) Law firms dealing with redundancy packages, refinancing and administration of companies

4) Companies specialising in individuals relocating to warmer sunny climates

5) Cash Converters!

6) Tobacco companies

7) Sky TV - as no one will be able to afford to go to footie matches

8) Any invsolvency management firms

9) Debt collectors

And of course the one thing that wont ever, EVER go down!

10) Oil companies

Essentially think of all the most evil things you can, the things that are the very antithisis of human good will and they will be the ones to ride out a recession/HPC.

Edited by pyewackitt

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Essentially think of all the most evil things you can, the things that are the very antithisis of human good will

Can we buy shares in NuLab?

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MarkG,

I think that's a cop out - one wants an investment that has a direct inverse correlation to housing - preferably one that worked in the late 1980s and early 1990s

Besides, I believe the fortunes of the UK property market are linked up with the global economy. A global recession wouldn't necessary be good for oil companies. And in the early 1990s stock markets went up while property went down.

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Last week TTRTR asked for advice on what to do with 100K

Internaxx of Luxemburg

I reckon you start off with an Internaxx account that way you can trade live. Their commission on ~£100K is relatively small.

Then you need to pay attention to what people in the know are telling you, and try and work out why they are telling you this.

Good advice is to look for a growing sector, renewable fuel? Try and spread your investment over the historically better performing companies.

Here’s a mind teaser; do you think the price of West Texas crude will go up or down in the run up to this years hurricane season?

Baring in mind last season was the roughest on record, how will that affect people’s nerves/confidence?

Look at the possibility of US citizens stock piling fuel reserves in the summer, this doesn’t need to happen but the potential is there.

What does a higher US oil price mean?

This is the sort of way you should be thinking

High oil prices mean oil companies make a killing. Don't be surprised if we see another year of record profits for Exxon, Texaco, BP and the like. But check out each of them individually so you know who is exposed to what. This will allow you to predict what stock to dissolve when.

There's a high potential for these companies to make huge sums this year at the expense of strangling the global economy. But you need to select several suitable strategies i.e. other sectors, Chinese manufacturing? If you agree select non oil intense manufacturers. This will also protect you from developing a sentimental attachment to oil stocks similar to that which will eventually cost TTRTR his property portfolio. Oil is not for ever, you have been warned.

P.S To trade with confidence you need to be better informed than the herd, education starts at home.

[edit] forgot the Internaxx link

I can just echo what I said last week.

TTRTR would have made at least 3-4K since thursday if he followed my advice. Exxon and BP both made 4-5% gains.

My bet is he never did, and probably spent the lot on new kitchens for his tennants. Before assuring them they are little more than his slaves, and kitchens are wise investments as they improve the value of the property.

Oh dear.

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Maybe this website should be floated?! It could act as a front for allsorts of companies councelling /loan consolidation/pawnbrokers etc.

I'd buy shares in http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk !

Speaking to a colleague at work about the whole HPC scenario and though he accepts some of the indicators of a HPC, he still thinks that in the longer term HPI is always positive(true), and the 'castle' mentality still means buying a house is better than renting, whatever the scenario.

BTW he is too young to remember the last crash.

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1) Companies involved in UK jobs outsourcing

They will be outsourced themselves.

2) Distillers and Brewerys for when the newly unemployed drown their sorrows

Alcohol sales fall in a recession.

3) Law firms dealing with redundancy packages, refinancing and administration of companies

Lawyers make money both in booms and busts.

4) Companies specialising in individuals relocating to warmer sunny climates

Maybe. A HPC will also take place in Spain as well.

5) Cash Converters!

Killed by Ebay.

6) Tobacco companies

Smoking is in decline.

7) Sky TV - as no one will be able to afford to go to footie matches

Has already reached market saturation for those who watch major sports events. Allegedly most new subscribers watch UK TV Gold and documentary channels.

8) Any invsolvency management firms

9) Debt collectors

These live off recessions.

10) Oil companies

Could be in for a difficult time as wells are sucked dry.

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I'm just curious to know if people have thought about how to profit from the impending doom!

Ahhh so that explains it, I didn't think people wanted a HPC to be able to afford property, they want to actually make money from it.

Strange how HPC regards BTLs are the scum of the earth for profiteering yet people want to profit from a HPC. How selfish. ;)

(I don't buy to let btw and have only just been able to afford a house myself)

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They will be outsourced themselves.

Alcohol sales fall in a recession.

Lawyers make money both in booms and busts.

Maybe. A HPC will also take place in Spain as well.

Killed by Ebay.

Smoking is in decline.

Has already reached market saturation for those who watch major sports events. Allegedly most new subscribers watch UK TV Gold and documentary channels.

These live off recessions.

Could be in for a difficult time as wells are sucked dry.

I agree with most of these!

However - whilst almost everyone and every company has problems in a recession these are the ones I think might survive/thrive in that environment.

What others can you add to this list?

- Pye

Oh and yes...

smoking is decline... but watch how many people start again with the stress caused by an HPC

Just because wells are dry doesn't mean prices wont continue to rise and Exxon/BP make a mint

Cash Converters was just an example of a pawn shop... Ebay probably better bet I agree

Edited by pyewackitt

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Ahhh so that explains it, I didn't think people wanted a HPC to be able to afford property, they want to actually make money from it.

Strange how HPC regards BTLs are the scum of the earth for profiteering yet people want to profit from a HPC. How selfish. ;)

(I don't buy to let btw and have only just been able to afford a house myself)

Thanks for the sanctimony & sarcasm, stormy. The question is just a logical one to pose to a group who are mostly confident of a house price 'correction' or crash in the near to mid-future......

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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