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Mortgage Approvals Up Again

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Guest wrongmove

December surge in new mortgages

"More mortgages were approved for house purchase in December than any month since May 2004, the Bank of England has revealed. In total, 122,000 mortgages were approved during the month, an increase of more than a quarter since late 2004...."

These are mortgages approved for house purchase after a valuation has been performed on the property. They do not include MEW. remortgaging, or approvals that have not been carried through to the property evaluation stage.

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December surge in new mortgages

"More mortgages were approved for house purchase in December than any month since May 2004, the Bank of England has revealed. In total, 122,000 mortgages were approved during the month, an increase of more than a quarter since late 2004...."

These are mortgages approved for house purchase after a valuation has been performed on the property. They do not include MEW. remortgaging, or approvals that have not been carried through to the property evaluation stage.

We live in an age when institutions we once trusted no longer deserve our trust. Isn't it odd that just when the market is showing definite signs of a downturn (Nationwide show falls throughout the South of England, Hometrack say we were down by more than 1% in all of 2005) the VIs start releasing statements as to how the market is booming at record levels.

Quite frankly, I no longer believe VI statements I am only interested in the facts.

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Guest wrongmove

Quite frankly, I no longer believe VI statements I am only interested in the facts.

The Bank of England is not really a vested interest, in the usual sense of the phrase.

What do you mean by "facts" ? Anecdotals ?? Ever heard the story of the blind men and the elephant ?

Edited by wrongmove

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Guest Fiddlesticks

We live in an age when institutions we once trusted no longer deserve our trust. Isn't it odd that just when the market is showing definite signs of a downturn (Nationwide show falls throughout the South of England, Hometrack say we were down by more than 1% in all of 2005) the VIs start releasing statements as to how the market is booming at record levels.

Quite frankly, I no longer believe VI statements I am only interested in the facts.

I think there's a danger of paranoia setting in. From all that I see at the moment I think that we have to accept we're in for a spring bounce and that's all there is to it. Trying to explain it away with complicated conspiracy theories is not going to help.

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The Bank of England is not really a vested interest, in the usual sense of the phrase.

What do you mean by "facts" ? Anecdotals ?? Ever heard the story of the blind men and the elephant ?

Facts to me do not include "asking" prices or the number of mortgage approvals but prices houses sell for. The BoE is supposed to be independent but like its US counterpart, the Fed, they are incumbered by politics of their own.

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I think there's a danger of paranoia setting in. From all that I see at the moment I think that we have to accept we're in for a spring bounce and that's all there is to it. Trying to explain it away with complicated conspiracy theories is not going to help.

Nope, it does look like in the short term it's going to pick up again and this whole sorry affair is going to continue for a while. :(

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Nope, it does look like in the short term it's going to pick up again and this whole sorry affair is going to continue for a while. :(

I don't reckon it can continue for long. The fundementals are shifting and there is much more nervousness around now.

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Nope, it does look like in the short term it's going to pick up again and this whole sorry affair is going to continue for a while. :(

BUT--if the more conservative VI, Nationwide, are correct the market bounce in January was a mere 0.1% and may simply reflect fewer more expensive homes being sold. Hardly a sign of recovery.

The reality is rising unemployment, weaker retail sales than expected, rising world IR, lowest FTB numbers in 25 years, rising stock of unsold properties. Spring may just continue the negative trend and see the rise of 0.1% seen in January turn into a drop of similar amount.

Edited by Realistbear

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I think there's a danger of paranoia setting in. From all that I see at the moment I think that we have to accept we're in for a spring bounce and that's all there is to it. Trying to explain it away with complicated conspiracy theories is not going to help.

I'd think it'd be May/June before we know that.

The mortgage approval numbers may be linked to those percentage falls, after all, transactions are needed for house prices to fall. If nothing sold, there'd be no movement.

The approvals only tell us about relative activity, don't assume a lot of activity means an increase, over the next few years, you might see some high approvals numbers in some pretty nasty falls.

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Nope, it does look like in the short term it's going to pick up again and this whole sorry affair is going to continue for a while. :(

Personally, I'm not sure whether it will ever end.

Personal debt, a slowdown in retail, creeping unemployment, rising taxes etc etc etc. Doesn't seem to matter a fig, I'm afraid.

There are only two things which are going to sink the market (forget everything else);

1. Rising interest rates

or

2. A withdrawl of credit

It's been a hell of the party over the past 10 years and it could go on for some time. In about November I put forward a 'wild card' option that HPI could be 20% in '06. Purely on the contrarian basis that no one forecast it. Unfortunately it looks as though it could be the case.

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Personally, I'm not sure whether it will ever end.

Personal debt, a slowdown in retail, creeping unemployment, rising taxes etc etc etc. Doesn't seem to matter a fig, I'm afraid.

There are only two things which are going to sink the market (forget everything else);

1. Rising interest rates

or

2. A withdrawl of credit

It's been a hell of the party over the past 10 years and it could go on for some time. In about November I put forward a 'wild card' option that HPI could be 20% in '06. Purely on the contrarian basis that no one forecast it. Unfortunately it looks as though it could be the case.

How about lowering IR and restricting credit ? Katy at the BoE seems to be suggesting that (see the Katy thread). Sterling tanks, retail sinks, confidence sinks unemployment rises.

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I am only interested in the facts.

You define facts as those nuggets that support your argument. Religion has no facts to underpin it, just hearsay and tales, yet I think Im right in saying you are a fully signed up member of the squad.

My prediction of 8 - 10% price growth in London area by July is looking 'on'.

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You define facts as those nuggets that support your argument. Religion has no facts to underpin it, just hearsay and tales, yet I think Im right in saying you are a fully signed up member of the squad.

My prediction of 8 - 10% price growth in London area by July is looking 'on'.

How can you prove that Julius Caesar existed? Alexander the Great? Aristotle? Mohammed? What facts do we have to show these gentlemen actually walked on this planet and said what they are reported to have said?

House prices are ascertainable facts. When a house sells it has a price attached to that transaction. When enough houses sell you can work out a median or average. The problem with the "facts" from the VIs like Halifax is that their data is notional. "Asking prices" may not reflect selling prices and in a weakening market hardly ever do.

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How about lowering IR and restricting credit ? Katy at the BoE seems to be suggesting that (see the Katy thread). Sterling tanks, retail sinks, confidence sinks unemployment rises.

I just can't see the great financial institutions witholding the punchbowl because they know what would happen if they did. Worlwide depression. They're not fools, they know that the '29 crash was caused by a small number of wealthy bankers withdrawing credit. This literally could go on indefinitely.

The British consumer has over a trillion pounds of debt. So what! There's no law that says it gets to a certain point and the whole things crashes. We could get to 10, 100, 1000 trillion, so long as the banks keep lending and the money supply grows.

The problem with the likes of Bill Bonner over at 'the daily reckoning' is that what he's saying is right, logical and rational BUT markets are not like that. If it all tanks in 20 years should we all be hailing Bill Bonner for being a stopped clock? No, because his timing is dreadful.

As long as we are willing to borrow and the banks are willing to lend, this market is bullet-proof, despite what the rational charts and historical analysis suggest.

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How can you prove that Julius Caesar existed? Alexander the Great? Aristotle?

The difference is they arent part of a supernatural tale. Religion is crammed full with supernatural tales. If someone descibing himself as the next Jesus was in Hyde Park right now, you would dismiss him without any hesitation. The Bible / Jesus are just old versions of the Man in Hyde Park but because they are ancient, they have accumulated validity and stregnth.

On house prices you dismiss all price rise news as spin and VI. This shows a lack of balance on your part.

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As long as we are willing to borrow and the banks are willing to lend, this market is bullet-proof, despite what the rational charts and historical analysis suggest.

Right. The problem I have with many economists is thier presumption that everything repeats itself. 'Recipe book' economics is Moronic.

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How many are BTL mortgages as opposed to genuine FTB mortgages. Banks are lending to anyone at the moment which to me is an encouraging sign of the HPC. If you believe the Nationwide figures of today, a FTB will need another £5000 to get on the ladder. All the savings to get on the ladder eroded away in an instant? An what about next month when the VI publishes similar figures again?

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The difference is they arent part of a supernatural tale. Religion is crammed full with supernatural tales. If someone descibing himself as the next Jesus was in Hyde Park right now, you would dismiss him without any hesitation. The Bible / Jesus are just old versions of the Man in Hyde Park but because they are ancient, they have accumulated validity and stregnth.

On house prices you dismiss all price rise news as spin and VI. This shows a lack of balance on your part.

Quoite a few people thought Homer's Odyssey (Helen of Troy etc) was a supernatural tale or fable until the archeologists found Troy. Did Caesar really conquer the Western world or was it Roman propaganda to create a myth about Roman power? Did Joshua really conquer Canaan and burn all those cities with a untrained mob of Isrealites. Not many thought so until the archeologists started finding ruins of ancient towns that had been burned to the ground at about the time the Bible alleges the conquest took place. History can be very subjective and some choose what to believe based on the hearsay of others which probably accounts for the belief that Mohammed existed.

All VIs say prices are rising (Nationwide, Halifax, RICS, EAs) even the BBC fail to take into account or report price drops as if they do not exist. Balance? I don't think so.

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How many are BTL mortgages as opposed to genuine FTB mortgages. Banks are lending to anyone at the moment which to me is an encouraging sign of the HPC.

No, it's when they STOP lending to anyone that something will give.

No withdrawl of credit = No house price crash

And I'm saying this as a bear!!!!!!!

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Quoite a few people thought Homer's Odyssey (Helen of Troy etc) was a supernatural tale or fable until the archeologists found Troy.

You just hit the nail right on the head; There is EVIDENCE for Troy.

Depsite massive vested interest no evidnece exists for creationism et al.

We have evidence of Dinosaur bones. We can date rocks. We view building blocks with microscopes. We have no such empirical evidence to sunstantiate religions.

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From all that I see at the moment I think that we have to accept we're in for a spring bounce

It's different this time.

While money is more expensive now than it was a couple of years ago, maybe the new 'short term fixed' mortgages are masking a more insidious problem to come. This has given people the impression that it isn't going to crash because it hasn't OBVIOUSLY crashed right away. It certainly would fit the "stagnation" we see.

This has probably given some people more confidence. However, of the mortgage applications applied for, how many of these will go on to complete? Friends of mine (bought in 2000) are trying to sell their now doubly-priced house in order to get an extra bedroom for the second kiddy on the way. People in this situation may have applied for a mortgage, and are looking at houses, but they don't have a FIRST TIME BUYER.

Spring bounce? We'll just have to see.

EDIT: People bought and sold houses all the way down to the bottom of the last crash, and they would do it again for this one.

Edited by megaflop

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How many of these "approvals" go forward to completions?

That's the key factor. Also how many of the completions result in "cash back" offers etc that don't make it onto the Landregistry data?

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You just hit the nail right on the head; There is EVIDENCE for Troy.

Depsite massive vested interest no evidnece exists for creationism et al.

We have evidence of Dinosaur bones. We can date rocks. We view building blocks with microscopes. We have no such empirical evidence to sunstantiate religions.

There is also evidence that the Temple in Jerusalem existed and that the area where Sodom existed sustained fire damage from sulphurous materials. The Roman historian Josephus (and Emperor Claudius) wrote that Jesus existed. We can't date rocks as they were all formed at the same time--even the Big Bang theorists say the earth came into existence as a result of an explosion. The rocks all got here at the same time as they formed a globe. Dinosaurs existed and died out--why? One theory suggests lack of oxygen following the upheavel on earth that caused the atmosphere to lose its water content thereby reducing gravity and increasing radiation. Dinosaurs required huge amounts of oxygen to survive and the cataclysmic change caused them to die of asphyxiation. What does this prove? As the earth's crust is only a few miles deep it suggests the earth has not had many years to cool. The Sahara desert grows by several meters a year and as the planet is not a desert yet the theory that the earth is billions of years old falls down. The Moon is moving away from the earth each year and billions of years would place it millions of miles from us. All this to say you can't alwys believe what you read in school text books.

Creationism? Bert Einstein and Steve Hawking, perhaps the 2 most brilliant physicists of the last 100 years, both accept the existence of intelligent design in the universe (as did all the Greek philosophers through logic and amthematics--first cause etc.). Darwin's 18th century theory does not bear up in the light of genetics and how DNA is formed. Darwin could not know about the basic buidling blocks of life as he did not have an electron microscope. Charles based his theory that the Universe was not created on hearsay and uninformed observation. Frank Behe, a biologist of considerable repute, stated in his seminal work "Darwin's Black Box" that intelligent design is the only explanation for the existence of the cell as it was incapable of self formation due to its complexity and need for epidermis to be in place before the rest of the cell could develop. Darwin did not understand the basic building block of life and yet people have believed in this theory for years. The Genome project has shot it through with so many holes that few scientists still believe in 18th Century "science." The problem is that few have been able to admit it lest they are branded as a religious nut. Belief in intelligent design has nothing to do with religion but has everything to do with Science as Bert Einstein and Steve Hawking illustrate so well (neither are Christians or followers of other religions BTW--neither is the Biologist Behe who wrote Darwin's Black Box).

How many of these "approvals" go forward to completions?

That's the key factor. Also how many of the completions result in "cash back" offers etc that don't make it onto the Landregistry data?

And how many of these approvals were in anticipation of SIPPs--the U-Turn occured in November I believe and it is possible that hundreds of applications only made it through to approval in December.

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December surge in new mortgages

"More mortgages were approved for house purchase in December than any month since May 2004, the Bank of England has revealed. In total, 122,000 mortgages were approved during the month, an increase of more than a quarter since late 2004...."

These are mortgages approved for house purchase after a valuation has been performed on the property. They do not include MEW. remortgaging, or approvals that have not been carried through to the property evaluation stage.

How do we know it doesn't include MEW?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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