Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Converted Lurker

House Prices, House Prices, House Prices.....

Recommended Posts

The UK housing market started the year strongly, with January seeing the biggest leap in prices for 18 months, Nationwide building society said today.

I don`t quite get what intelligent erudite posters on here don`t get! Prices are more expensive than 2 years ago...and....? Sales volumes are on their knees and proportionately its the more expensive properties on the market as so many look to downsize, or panic sell. Ask yourself, how many friends, or family members do you know wanting to sell to buy something more expensive?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UK housing market started the year strongly, with January seeing the biggest leap in prices for 18 months, Nationwide building society said today.

I don`t quite get what intelligent erudite posters on here don`t get! Prices are more expensive than 2 years ago...and....? Sales volumes are on their knees and proportionately its the more expensive properties on the market as so many look to downsize, or panic sell. Ask yourself, how many friends, or family members do you know wanting to sell to buy something more expensive?

OK, get the point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prices are more expensive than 2 years ago...and....? Sales volumes are on their knees

Absolutely, combine this with the lowest number of FTBers for 25 years and it is not good. FTBers down 40% on 2002, and yet the market was buoyant if you believe some reports, with lending up by 10.3%. This means that the sales of larger houses must have far outstripped FTB properties, so a 4.4% incrase on "average price" on the previous year is almost certainly a loss in real terms.

Edited by echo3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sales volumes are on their knees and proportionately its the more expensive properties on the market as so many look to downsize, or panic sell.

The problem with downsizing is that it means people with money are heading down from higher up the ladder and further pricing starter homes out of the market for FTBs. There's evidence of it where I live – Big detached houses don't seem all that terribly overpriced but flats and small family homes are at least twice what they are really worth. As inflation-busing energy and council tax bills continue to batter everyone, but particularly those with bigger houses which cost more to heat and command the highest rates of council tax, more and more people will look at downsizing. While I don't doubt that the property market is due a sharp correction across the board I still feel that the climb onto the bottom rung of the ladder will be a difficult, long and painful one for FTBs unless something miraculous happens to wages. I reckon the average house price will be three times the average salary in about eight yers, but whether the average starter home will ever be down to three times the average starter salary is another mater.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we are seeing a time where we are all aware that the prices are falling and the EA’s can still provide data to show prices rising.

There is a very simple reason for this, cheap sh*t box properties are no longer selling in numbers and larger nicer properties are taking up a greater market share than is proportionally representative.

The EA’s are not lying when they say prices have gone up.

It’s because the property mix being sold is not representative of the stock. The value of the property has not necessarily moved and may even have fallen.

An understanding of what the figures mean is essential.

When the Halifax says the average house price has increased 5%. Only an idiot would interpret this as "my house is worth 5% more". Sadly the public consists of idiots.

If a car auction reported the average car price as £5000 one year then £6000 the next year does this mean all cars are worth 20% more? or does it mean nobody is reselling bangers? or does it mean Ferraris are changing hands more?

All cars could be worth a lot less but if a more Ferraris change hands than the year before, even if they change hands at a lower price (ie are worth less), the average price will be higher.

This is why monthly figures for house prices ought to be ignored they are subject to noise. The sample is too low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is alot of rubbish talked on here. I won't a HPC as much as the next man and will argue till I'm blue in the face however it serves no purpose to just make stuff up.

Transactions in the last 2 quarters were the highest since 1988, Mortgage Approvals are massive. Im still hopeful that something is causing this but if asking prices and real prices are also rising then we can't blame low transactions skewering the stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we know the actual formulas used to do the calculations?

Look at the way the formula for the unemployed has been changed over the years. Its hard to get a true representation of what is actually happening until its happened (or in the process of).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UK housing market started the year strongly, with January seeing the biggest leap in prices for 18 months, Nationwide building society said today.

I don`t quite get what intelligent erudite posters on here don`t get!

I don`t quite get why people don`t trust these figures. Of course there are some pinches of salt to be taken, but the total distrust seems illogical. What would it take for people to believe the figures and who would you trust. Why would the BBC lie, I don't get it, sorry.

Sales volumes are on their knees.

This is interesting and I did not know this was true. Are they not just returning to a more sane less frantic level ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone found any regional information about this supposed house price rise?

Couldn't find it on the nationwide website. Just the overall UK outlook which as we all know is NOT a general indication!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UK housing market started the year strongly, with January seeing the biggest leap in prices for 18 months, Nationwide building society said today.

I don`t quite get what intelligent erudite posters on here don`t get! Prices are more expensive than 2 years ago...and....? Sales volumes are on their knees and proportionately its the more expensive properties on the market as so many look to downsize, or panic sell. Ask yourself, how many friends, or family members do you know wanting to sell to buy something more expensive?

An interesting point. We sold in 2004 in London - a 4 bed house - after a long struggle. Our eventual buyers were trading down, not up. So were we in price terms, as we emigrated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone found any regional information about this supposed house price rise?

Couldn't find it on the nationwide website. Just the overall UK outlook which as we all know is NOT a general indication!

Here ya go! Look at at it in all its..er..4 page detail :lol:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan2006.pdf

One page of graphs, one of disclosure, one of assumptions..Still, God bless Fionuella, in work early giving the good news to the radio 4 listeners at 7.15 :P

Edited by Converted Lurker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol::lol::lol::blink:

You are having a laff, right???

No I'm serious.

I'm from a generation that still believes the BBC to be at least more or less impartial, at least more than a lot of other news agencies. Am I wrong, if so why ? Why the paranoia about the Beeb ? Do you know something I don't, have you inside information ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No I'm serious.

I'm from a generation that still believes the BBC to be at least more or less impartial, at least more than a lot of other news agencies. Am I wrong, if so why ? Why the paranoia about the Beeb ? Do you know something I don't, have you inside information ?

I agree with Mr Magnet. The HPC board often loses its important signal in a ovewhelming noise of paranoic government / BBC / baby boomer etc bashing.

Do people really think that the independent (non-BBC) producers of home improvement programmes hold editorial sway over what is reported on the 10 O'clock news? Or that someone in the government is controlling how the BBC reports house prices? Looking like a bunch of cranks is a great way to destroy credibility when it is quite possible to put forward a cogent argument regarding the true state of the housing market and how that market is softening.

Edited by aussieboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Or that someone in the government is controlling how the BBC reports house prices?

You don't need a conspiracy to control what the BBC broadcast. You just need to hold the purse strings.

Do you really think they'll go out of their way to upset the people who pay their wages?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Fiddlesticks

You don't need a conspiracy to control what the BBC broadcast. You just need to hold the purse strings.

Do you really think they'll go out of their way to upset the people who pay their wages?

I'm sorry, but this is simply crazy. I have to agree with Aussieboy about the damage that this stuff does to our credibility. Sometimes I cringe when I read what gets posted here. Conspiracy theories and witch-hunts make us look like a bunch of cranks. I've always thought that a major part of the function of this board is a PR one: getting the message that all is not well to a wider public. Denying reality and ignoring evidence that doesn't fit is not a convincing way of achieving that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm sorry, but this is simply crazy.

So believing that the BBC will avoid offending the people who pay their wages is 'crazy'? Do you piss in your bosses' coffee in the morning?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So believing that the BBC will avoid offending the people who pay their wages is 'crazy'? Do you piss in your bosses' coffee in the morning?

It is highly unlikely that the powers of the BBC approve or reject items on Houses & House Prices because of a sinister motive. More likely that journalists, mp's, editors don't really give a toss about HP's because they all own one or more properties and are comfortable in 'unsackable' jobs.

Also the bbc is aimed at the general public so won't delve into much detail or really analyze any news item. The same could be said about most of the BBC's reports about a wide range of subjects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is highly unlikely that the powers of the BBC approve or reject items on Houses & House Prices because of a sinister motive. More likely that journalists, mp's, editors don't really give a toss about HP's because they all own one or more properties and are comfortable in 'unsackable' jobs.

http://www.medialens.org/alerts/05/050121_..._Propaganda.php

Remarkably, in an almost exact repeat of events in 2002 and 2003, the BBC is now reflexively boosting the US claim that Iran presents a threat to the West.

On yesterday's BBC1 lunchtime news, diplomatic correspondent James Robbins declared that US relations with Iran were "looking very murky because of the nuclear threat". (BBC1, 13:00 News, January 20, 2005)

Robbins meant, of course, the +alleged+ nuclear threat from Iran.

On the BBC's 18:00 news, Robbins again spoke of Iran "where the President is confronting the nuclear threat". (BBC1, 18:00 News, January 25, 2005)

To be honest, I think that trusting any media outlet, whether private or public, not to lie for power gain is plain stupid.

No sinister motives mmmm

http://www.aliran.com/monthly/2005a/5e.html

liberal media like the BBC and Guardian are notable exponents of such vacillation. Typically, this involves whitewashed editorials and selective kow-towing to senior politicians. For example, in a recent piece, the ML editors note how the leading BBC correspondent Matt Frei was moved to praise Wolfowitz as a “powerful intellectual” who “believes passionately in the power of democracy and grassroots development”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What about the strong mortgage approvals then? :angry:

strong mortgage approvals.....hmmmmm,how many of these are re-mortgages?????

....it's does kinda tally with karhu's observation about rising secured and lower unsecured debt doesn't it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You don't need a conspiracy to control what the BBC broadcast. You just need to hold the purse strings.

Do you really think they'll go out of their way to upset the people who pay their wages?

Don't the BBC just dumbly report what the major EAs (Halifax etc) tell them about prices?

I've never seen a 'BBC' house price index. (but then again I hardly ever watch TV!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't the BBC just dumbly report what the major EAs (Halifax etc) tell them about prices?

I've never seen a 'BBC' house price index. (but then again I hardly ever watch TV!)

how's the GORDAQ doing????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.