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Greenspan -> Bernanke

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Now that Greenspan is stepping down to make way for Bernanke, would anyone care to speculate on what changes we may or may not see?

I'll get the debate going by sticking my neck out:

Personally I think Bernanke's targeted inflation will mean a period of higher interest rates at the Fed, as it would tend to suppress the effects of downward pressures such as unemployment.

I would be foolish to speculate on how far Bernanke might go but I do believe this will be the direction, Fed rates drifting upwards over time.

Greenspan himself is touted to be raising rates today as his final act as Chairman.

Credit tightening? That's right.

Negative saving in the US is not something the that will be tolerated at the Fed. Banks need savers

What do you think might happen? What do you want to happen?

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Now that Greenspan is stepping down to make way for Bernanke, would anyone care to speculate on what changes we may or may not see?

I'll get the debate going by sticking my neck out:

Personally I think Bernanke's targeted inflation will mean a period of higher interest rates at the Fed, as it would tend to suppress the effects of downward pressures such as unemployment.

I would be foolish to speculate on how far Bernanke might go but I do believe this will be the direction, Fed rates drifting upwards over time.

Greenspan himself is touted to be raising rates today as his final act as Chairman.

Credit tightening? That's right.

Negative saving in the US is not something the that will be tolerated at the Fed. Banks need savers

What do you think might happen? What do you want to happen?

I'd like both the Fed and the MPC to get IRs to ~6%. This will separate the wheat from the chaff. In such, those that have stupidly over stretched themselves with Self Certs or heavily geared BTL will feel the pinch.

I'd like to think that if the Fed raise that the UK will follow, but there are other variables to consider.

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Good old Bernanke, he reckons he'll be throwing dollars out of helicopters before he'd let deflation happen.

I wonder if he'll be doing a tour of the printing presses as his first act as chairmen, he'll need to make sure they're in good shape for the work he'd got planned for them.

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Here's a graph of the last 50 years IR at the fed. I've drawn on the data up to 2006.

Federal_Funds_Rate__effective_.png

Greenspan took over in 1987 you can see from the graph his years have been more stable than those before.

Can anybody spot any cycles or patterns?

Jus bumping this back up

post-3701-1138704946.png

Edited by ?...!

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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