thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That second London bounce always felt pretty unreal... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I cleared the cloakroom out the other day and reclaimed a square meter - about 5 grand's worth by current Ox prices. Madness, I agree. Yes, the expensive stuff is on the slide but I think they'll prop the middle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 41 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Twin peaks. We could call the first one Stupid and the second one Insane. Â That graph needs to go back to 1990 to show the full madness of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy2x3 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 looking at countries within eu. it appears most have had and some still having much worse economic woes than anyone has estimated britain will have by leaving the eu. look how its all worked out for greece or italy or spain being in the eu. far worse than any brexit economic woe predictions. so what went wrong there then in the economic nirvana that being in the eu is. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 You should try your luck with that argument in the Brexit What Next spread...good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Option5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If we have a global crash will it be easier or harder for the UK to recover outside the EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It does seem weird currently. The worst of austerity out of the way. High employment. But also high public and private debt, high house prices, and creeping housing liabilities like s24. Sure there's no sniff of a recession but there never is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yet T May has confounded all commentators/predictors just by staying in her post his long - and she looks stronger this week than she did a month ago. It now even looks possible she'll stick around for the next election. Can she just keep going, and we get a few more years of business as usual? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Si1 said: Sure there's no sniff of a recession but there never is. When was the last negative quarter? Is it really five years ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, thehowler said: When was the last negative quarter? Is it really five years ago? When was the last time house prices went down ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, thehowler said: When was the last negative quarter? Is it really five years ago? meaning what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/09/uk-economy-take-long-painful-look-research-development Halfway through the 2010 parliament, David Cameron and George Osborne had a problem. They had arrived in office promising a different economic model that would be less dependent on private and public debt and the result was that taxes were raised and public spending was cut to rid Britain of its budgetary incontinence. Businesses would be encouraged to invest by the commitment to reduce the budget deficit, while the Bank of England’s easy money regime would ensure that the economy kept growing at a reasonable pace. Things didn’t work out as planned and the reason they didn’t was that Cameron and Osborne failed to understand just how structurally weak the economy was. They assumed that it wouldn’t really matter if consumer spending was flat and the housing market a bit depressed because growth would pick up elsewhere – in manufacturing, exports and investment – to compensate. But there was no rebalancing. Without the consumer and the housing market, it was not a case of different growth, it was a case of no growth. Fearful of losing the 2015 election, steps were taken to get the housing market moving.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hullabaloo82 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, jimmy2x3 said: looking at countries within eu. it appears most have had and some still having much worse economic woes than anyone has estimated britain will have by leaving the eu. look how its all worked out for greece or italy or spain being in the eu. far worse than any brexit economic woe predictions. so what went wrong there then in the economic nirvana that being in the eu is.  Eurozone being the big problem there for places like the PIGS countries as opposed to the EU. Essentially cost of living sky rocketed following the introduction of the euro whilst employers still pay lira/pesetas/escudos money. I lived in Portugal as a youngster and would move back there in a flash if it wasn't for the financial situation. Had a look at a job there earlier this year; for a qualified, bilingual professional at the Lisbon office of a very well known multonational with several years experience they wanted to pay me about €25k pa. Wife, with no relevant language skills was looking at under €10k pa in a call centre (which Lisbon is becoming a centre of). In Lisbon itself, thanks to the wonders of airbnb, craft beer and street art, that will get you precisely ****** all in any neighbourhood you'd want to live in. Of course, there are some sort cheap places within a reasonable commute but then you've got to add in childcare and a couple of hours commute every day and the whole point of moving to a (theoretically) higher quality of life country is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Si1 said: meaning what? Meaning the incessant glooming and dooming from so many quarters doesn't chime with the plodding, unspectacular (but there nonetheless) growth we've been having. I was honestly surprised a half decade's gone by already and no negative dip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Assume The Opposite said: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/09/uk-economy-take-long-painful-look-research-development Halfway through the 2010 parliament, David Cameron and George Osborne had a problem. They had arrived in office promising a different economic model that would be less dependent on private and public debt and the result was that taxes were raised and public spending was cut to rid Britain of its budgetary incontinence. Businesses would be encouraged to invest by the commitment to reduce the budget deficit, while the Bank of England’s easy money regime would ensure that the economy kept growing at a reasonable pace. Things didn’t work out as planned and the reason they didn’t was that Cameron and Osborne failed to understand just how structurally weak the economy was. They assumed that it wouldn’t really matter if consumer spending was flat and the housing market a bit depressed because growth would pick up elsewhere – in manufacturing, exports and investment – to compensate. But there was no rebalancing. Without the consumer and the housing market, it was not a case of different growth, it was a case of no growth. Fearful of losing the 2015 election, steps were taken to get the housing market moving.  This is what we've always thought. The cretins have created a destructive bubble just to suit their own political aims. Fearful of losing the 2020 election, steps were taken to boost the wages of the poor/collapse the housing bubble.  Take your pick. Edited March 21, 2018 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janch Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Assume The Opposite said: Wow! A picture paints a 1000 words etc etc...............That really says it all...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, janch said: Wow! A picture paints a 1000 words etc etc...............That really says it all...... Now point on the picture where the banks were deregulated.  Money is worthless now!!!!!  If they dont tighten the monetary system is going to collapse.  it's got that serioud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, janch said: Wow! A picture paints a 1000 words etc etc...............That really says it all...... anywhere still rocking 1952 prices. we need a delorean to sort this mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, thehowler said: Meaning the incessant glooming and dooming from so many quarters doesn't chime with the plodding, unspectacular (but there nonetheless) growth we've been having. I was honestly surprised a half decade's gone by already and no negative dip. Given the unprecedented scale of UK borrowing - total debt (private + public) is now nearly 600% of GDP, up from 466% in 2008 - the real surprise is how pitiful the recovery has been. A measure of the country's seemingly intractable, structural inefficiency. £140bn in helicopter money via the TFS in just eighteen months and GDP is still flatlining? You can sense the bewilderment and incomprehension in Carney's recent remark: "The economy should be booming." Something is terribly, terribly wrong.   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyguy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 "You should try your luck with that argument in the Brexit What Next spread...good luck" Ask Greece how wonm=derful the EU has been for them, or Spain, Portugal, a have no less than 30% youth unemployment have you been to Belfast recently? Remoaners need to understand that the vote was to leave the EU so we are leaving. They can whinge and whine all they like it will not change anything.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyguy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I have been hearing portents of economic disaster on here for over 10 years. It is always just around the corner. If I had just £1 for every time I have heard this I would have bought a house on Richmond Hill overlooking the River, own a helicopter and a Maserati and would have been long retired.  I have no doubt at all that within 6 months there will be another thread forecasting economic doom. In another few months after thread there will be yet another one, then......................... et al ........................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 53 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: If they dont tighten the monetary system is going to collapse. No, it's going to collapse anyway. They are boxed in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, zugzwang said: A measure of the country's seemingly intractable, structural inefficiency. Aye. And a lot's changed in 50 years. Unions, job for life, full pensions, skilled/well-paid but non-cerebral trades, localized industrial plan, national transport and energy industries - all gone. A generational shift for a large chunk of the populace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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