Freki Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 And S24 has not really kicked in. Happy days. What I guess is a solicitor wrote a beautiful bearish comment: Quote I cover the most expensive post codes in the UK, Hamstead, St John's Wood and Mayfair. Not estate agency, before anyone asks. In the last week, I have seen a property with an asking price of 3.4m sell for 2.2m, one asking for 2.3m sold for 1.8m and another with an asking price of 2.2m sell for 1.7m. I also had to deal with one where the owner wanted 1.8m but had to down value to 1.3m. The prices sellers are asking for are utterly ridiculous and buyers are no longer facilitating. The fantasy world is no longer. A client telephoned me on Friday night asking why his 2 bed, 2 bath flat in South Hampstead hadn't sold in a year. I told him he's asking in excess of 30% more than its worth. After initially resisting, he is now reducing his asking price. Reality has hit home in the capital. Anything over 1m that hasn't sold in 1 month is most definitely overpriced. But this isn't being replicated at 500k and below. It's only the top end. It needs to occur at entry level to allow first time buyers access into the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Option5 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Nabby81 said: With the increases in the likes of Blackburn seems like they have all headed up there !! 16.4% in one year Blackburn was cheap for a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 hours ago, tomandlu said: My comment. Very nice and to the point, but I`m not particularly bothered about people in negative equity, the more of them there are the more others learn the lesson that banks and credit are to be treated very warily. I think there is a big bust coming (finally) and we won`t see another property bubble like this probably in our lifetimes ( said many times I know, but the difference now is that unlike 2008 the central banks are not on the same page as each other, and the EZ "elites" are much weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fence Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Brexit innit. Sure, and I've got a submarine to sell you. Just this week - any colour you want. FFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fence Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 "Please tell me again me lord how sheep's bladders cause earthquakes?". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Fence said: "Please tell me again me lord how sheep's bladders cause earthquakes?". "And that my liege is how we know the housing market to be banana-shaped." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Option5 said: Blackburn was cheap for a reason. Classic ripple, the most prosperous area of the UK is seeing the biggest falls in prices whereas one of the most deprived areas is seeing the biggest gains, doesn't take a genius to figure out what happens next.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Barnsey said: Classic ripple, the most prosperous area of the UK is seeing the biggest falls in prices whereas one of the most deprived areas is seeing the biggest gains, doesn't take a genius to figure out what happens next.... More QE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, rantnrave said: More QE? I'm sure they will, but it won't necessarily go back into consumer spending. Or it'll be too late to stop the coming bust at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 hours ago, jiltedjen said: so the London falls are slowly spreading. Great. thankfully the falls will wash outwards this year. really looking forward to the BTL landlord gone bust stories/posts. Another 8 months and the south-west and the midlands should be falling. Many on here have said this would happen. The price rises were like a tsunami emanating from London and as the wave retreats the damage will become evident. The bottom line is....the people in the shires do not have the means to pay the prices the loons moving out of London with packets full of free cash. This one fact means prices will inevitably correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Freki said: And S24 has not really kicked in. Happy days. What I guess is a solicitor wrote a beautiful bearish comment: Great spot. Good things come to those who wait ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, Barnsey said: Classic ripple, the most prosperous area of the UK is seeing the biggest falls in prices whereas one of the most deprived areas is seeing the biggest gains, doesn't take a genius to figure out what happens next.... I've said numerous times but its almost a carbon copy of 2007-8. Up here in Jockland it's quite bubbly too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 hours ago, Mrs Bear said: I do think that rightly or wrongly, at least some of the sentiment is down to Brexit. The sort of people (many) who could never bring themselves to admit that prices are ridiculous and have been for ages, like to kid themselves that if not for Brexit, prices would still be soaring into the stratosphere. And they can then conveniently blame it on all the swivel-eyed, xenophobic loons who voted to leave. I think you're right Mrs B.A lot will get blamed on Brexit that has little to do with it. 3 hours ago, Nabby81 said: With the increases in the likes of Blackburn seems like they have all headed up there !! 16.4% in one year Males you want to fly up and buy before you miss the boat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Freki said: And S24 has not really kicked in. Happy days. What I guess is a solicitor wrote a beautiful bearish comment: Nice find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Funn3r said: The Brexit referendum made no sense. Why did it happen? When the hell else do we get a referendum on anything? Bloody never that's when. I don't believe the usual story that Brexit was a complete accident caused by the backfiring of Cameron's plan to placate his eurosceptic backbenchers. I think they knew perfectly well that Brexit would wreck everything and in fact they are probably disappointed that the destabilising effects to date are as relatively limited as they are. They know the background is set for a crash and they intended Brexit would trigger it, because they want to buy assets dirt-cheap afterwards same as we do. We got the Brexit referendum because Cameron needed to neutralise the UKIP theat to Tory seats and it worked fantastically well to get the Tories back into power and with a workable (but small) majority. Meanwhile UKIP got a big wodge of the vote but only one seat. Cameron then utterly messed up the referendum campaign by going to Brussels looking for concessions and coming back with Sweet FA but then trying to pretend it was a 'reformed European Union' and urging support for Remain. Plus the establishment were complacent as ALL the major parties were pro-Remain and they had the overwhelming majority of the media on the Remain side too. The fact that Leave won despite just about every political party, newspaper and TV station telling them they would be crazy to vote Leave and the World would immediately end shows the depth of public feeling which the establishment completely failed to read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 (edited) 30 minutes ago, ccc said: I've said numerous times but its almost a carbon copy of 2007-8. Yep. You see everything falling into place like last time yet nothing really seems to be properly kicking off yet, but the mere fact the "everything bubble" is peaking, we've maxed out our credit cards and car finance, established retailers folding or massively struggling (no it's not all Amazon's fault), and now we have a concrete picture of declines in what "should be" the safest/most attractive part of the country to buy, we're not a million miles off now. QE has made the inevitable that bit further away and greatly surprised us all in its ability to prolong the rebalancing this country so desperately needs for a genuinely motivated future generation, but like everything you can only borrow so much money before you, and everyone around you, becomes completely saturated in debt, just like 2006/7. Problem this time is we've only got 0.5% to play with to stimulate the economy before the banks are paying us to borrow, just 10% of the IR cut boost we were gifted with in the last recession. I notice in Scotland that Livingston has done particularly well lately (I used to drive buses around West Lothian, know it TOO well), as has Warrington and Swindon, all similar kinds of towns that do well at the peak of the bubble, "value within reasonable commuting distance". Edited March 12, 2018 by Barnsey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Barnsey said: Yep. You see everything falling into place like last time yet nothing really seems to be properly kicking off yet, but the mere fact the "everything bubble" is peaking, we've maxed out our credit cards and car finance, established retailers folding or massively struggling (no it's not all Amazon's fault), and now we have a concrete picture of declines in what "should be" the safest/most attractive part of the country to buy, we're not a million miles off now. QE has made the inevitable that bit further away and greatly surprised us all in its ability to prolong the rebalancing this country so desperately needs for a genuinely motivated future generation, but like everything you can only borrow so much money before you, and everyone around you, becomes completely saturated in debt, just like 2006/7. Problem this time is we've only got 0.5% to play with to stimulate the economy before the banks are paying us to borrow, just 10% of the IR cut boost we were gifted with in the last recession. I notice in Scotland that Livingston has done particularly well lately (I used to drive buses around West Lothian, know it TOO well), as has Warrington and Swindon, all similar kinds of towns that do well at the peak of the bubble, "value within reasonable commuting distance". And you lived to tell the tale !! Good point about the 10% potential IR 'boost' compared to what happened last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, dances with sheeple said: Very nice and to the point, but I`m not particularly bothered about people in negative equity, the more of them there are the more others learn the lesson that banks and credit are to be treated very warily. I think there is a big bust coming (finally) and we won`t see another property bubble like this probably in our lifetimes ( said many times I know, but the difference now is that unlike 2008 the central banks are not on the same page as each other, and the EZ "elites" are much weaker Well, quite. I just don't see that 'necessary' precludes 'regrettable'. I don't blame over-indebted* OOs for this mess, but they are going to pay the price. All one can hope, as you say, is that their pain enters the collective conscious, and terrifies everyone for the next millennia or two... and meanwhile, the bankers and politicians get away scot free. That aside, I'm not convinced this is the big one yet - until IRs go up at least a few percent, the zombies will keep shuffling on. * unless they mewed, in which case, fvck 'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyMania Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Even with the claim that there's no economic impact from Brexit (this is of course mad, just look at the £) the population growth trajectory has now fallen from where it would be if Remain won. There is already and will continue to be a fall in net migration. And where do the majority of immigrants go? London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, TonyJ said: True. I think everyone expecting a repeat of the bailouts of the last decade are going to discover this time it will not be so easy. Authorities are constrained by lack of funds, sensitized and disaffected electorates, stagflation, fear of trashing their currencies etc etc etc Yep, I think they are out of ammo, it could get scary though before it gets better IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: Yep, I think they are out of ammo, it could get scary though before it gets better IMO. could get scary....for some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, tomandlu said: Well, quite. I just don't see that 'necessary' precludes 'regrettable'. I don't blame over-indebted* OOs for this mess, but they are going to pay the price. All one can hope, as you say, is that their pain enters the collective conscious, and terrifies everyone for the next millennia or two... and meanwhile, the bankers and politicians get away scot free. That aside, I'm not convinced this is the big one yet - until IRs go up at least a few percent, the zombies will keep shuffling on. * unless they mewed, in which case, fvck 'em. So many have only experienced emergency rates, and are in debt up to their eyeballs, it is going to be interesting if we start getting some hikes, very interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oatbake Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 hours ago, jiltedjen said: so the London falls are slowly spreading. Great. thankfully the falls will wash outwards this year. really looking forward to the BTL landlord gone bust stories/posts. Another 8 months and the south-west and the midlands should be falling. Can't see itbeing that long. More like three months, assuming they're not already falling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairyland Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 (edited) Average London mortgage debt in 2016 was £215,280 - http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-3438660/The-regions-biggest-mortgage-debt-revealed-Use-interactive-maps-town-city-compares.html If we consider a typical mortgage of £200,000 then 1% IR hike = £2000 additional cost per year. What will happen if IRs return to long term average of 5-6% ? Edited March 12, 2018 by Fairyland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 11 hours ago, spyguy said: MMR - no lying. Ha, ha , ha. Rubbish, you have to plan your lies 6-12 month in advance. When we did our last trade up in 2016 i alreaddy started planning for MMR in mid 2015. Kid no 1 Private school fees @ £5k per term paid by Grandad but via our banking, just moved it to its own old dormant bank account used for nothing but this, grandad pays in £5k every Term, i pay the school £5k every term. We knew MMR would never accept this as a "zero" cost and also wouldnt accept £5k gift from grandad every term as income, so we just didnt mention it. And they never asked were the kids go to school, state or private. Work car loan @ £300 pcm was also bank of Dad from 2013 but not due t be finished until January 2017. Agan this is covered by work allowance of £340 pcm after tax but we wanted that included as "income" for higher borrowing, not to be classed as funding a car for work. So, in early 2016 stopped paying grandad £300 pcm via DD and did a lump sum agreement with him to pay off in 5 larger payments Sept 16 to Jan 17 after the house Move completed. We then just saved the £300 pcm to make out "savings" look better, and outgoings look lower, and told MMR that my car allowance is a management perk we use as income rather than buying a car and just run old cars. Accepted, no proof of how old the cars we drive asked for. Deliberately dropped nusery down from 5 days a week to 2 days a week for our youngest with Gran doing the other 3 days a week for 6 months to lower the £800pcm bill massively. Then after got the mortgage and moved straight back to 5 days a week again, but then the free 15 hrs week increased to 30 last year so that has eased a bit. And a few smaller tricks too, all made th MMR figures look rosey and a £300k+ mortgage was no issue. in reality had we been completely honest then doubt we would have been approved for more than £200k, especially as even though kid 1's private schooling ended in 2017, kids 2's starts this year in 2018 for 10 years. 50% of the life of our mortgage. For sure until Spetember this year when nursery ends life wth a much bigger mortgage since Sept 2016 has been tough, but, be make sacrifices and pay all the bills each month, to a level MMR wont accept is possible for loans. So you just have to be creative, plan MMR and "bend the rules". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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