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Bloomberg: The U.K. 'Youthquake' Was All About the Rent


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There is an increased number of articles regarding unfair renting in the MSM. Is there something  in the pipeline? Wonder what is coming up next ?

Bloomberg: The U.K. 'Youthquake' Was All About the Rent

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Frustration with unaffordable housing is driving support for the opposition Labour Party.

The central issue in British politics is not, as you might have thought, Brexit. It's housing.

 

Edited by Fairyland
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Interesting stats, although not, in retrospect, that surprising. The tories' response will be to tweak and fiddle - a few percent off the price of a house here, a couple of grand there - trying to find some mythical sweet-spot, and chasing the market in voters down imho.

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40 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

Interesting stats, although not, in retrospect, that surprising. The tories' response will be to tweak and fiddle - a few percent off the price of a house here, a couple of grand there - trying to find some mythical sweet-spot, and chasing the market in voters down imho.

The mythical sweet spot the Tories usually claim to be aiming for is house prices rising less quickly than wages. So if wages are going up 2% nominal per year and house prices are somehow managed to rise by 1% nominal a year then housing in London/SE will drop from 15x local wages to 3.5x local wages in 149 years, just in time for the year 2168 general election after 8 generations in a row have been priced out. Good plan Tories, keep it up.

Edited by Dorkins
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1 hour ago, Fairyland said:

There is an increased number of articles regarding unfair renting in the MSM. Is there something  in the pipeline? Wonder what is coming up next ?

Bloomberg: The U.K. 'Youthquake' Was All About the Rent

 

It's almost a given that Spreadsheet Phil will have more dishonest and wasteful gimmick plans for the housing market in the Spring Budget.

An extension of 'Rent to Buy', perhaps? 

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In terms of the youth some will have access to the BMOD so rising prices won't effect them and if they can get on ''the ladder'' they will be expecting the gains their parents got so they won't be inclined to vote for a party likely to cut them out of the HPI party 

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9 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

But but...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-29/corbyn-s-2017-electoral-youthquake-didn-t-happen-study-finds

How can its cause be determined if it didn't happen? I'm confused :)

Depends what you mean by youth. The problem is that the priced out generation is now 40, and so includes exactly the people who would should be switching from labour to Tory, but aren’t, because they have essentially been priced out of the middle class. 

Edited by BuyToLeech
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9 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:

Depends what you mean by youth. The problem is that the priced out generation is now 40, and so includes exactly the people who would should be switching from labour to Tory, but aren’t, because they have essentially been priced out of the middle class. 

A very good point.  I think its dangerous to assume that all priced out people are young; not having a stake in society does have an impact on how you view things.  What is significant here is people are seeing their standard of living getting worse and worse; its not just about home ownership. This decline in living standards is being observed by parents of the priced out and some of them must be starting to question what is going on.  I hope this will see the end of the Tories as a real political force and who knows, maybe even a reappraisal of our parasitic Royals.

Suppose they had a wedding and nobody cared?

Edited by dougless
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19 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The mythical sweet spot the Tories usually claim to be aiming for is house prices rising less quickly than wages. So if wages are going up 2% nominal per year and house prices are somehow managed to rise by 1% nominal a year then housing in London/SE will drop from 15x local wages to 3.5x local wages in 149 years, just in time for the year 2168 general election ... Good plan Tories, keep it up.

Post of the day!

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2 hours ago, Bsmf said:

Problem is lots of the youth want house prices to keep rising, they want to own somewhere then have a magic money making machine that earns more than they do each year.

yes

from a young age this mentality is imbued into people... 

In reality, the number of people who want an HPC is a small minority. We have to acknowledge this.

The old / homeowners - HPI++

Young BOMAD - HPI++

Young / Old council tenants - Don't care

Young "saving for a deposit" - HPI++

Young HTB/Shared Ownership etc... - HPI++

The numbers of people who are deliberately "out of the market" is small. Not miniscule, but small. And many of them want an HPC for HPI++ reasons... i.e. still think of homes as "assets" rather than a home. The numbers who think that the misallocation of capital and debt into real estate harms the long term economic viability of the country as a whole and reduces overall quality of life is TINY.

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5 minutes ago, hayder said:

yes

from a young age this mentality is imbued into people... 

In reality, the number of people who want an HPC is a small minority. We have to acknowledge this.

The old / homeowners - HPI++

Young BOMAD - HPI++

Young / Old council tenants - Don't care

Young "saving for a deposit" - HPI++

Young HTB/Shared Ownership etc... - HPI++

The numbers of people who are deliberately "out of the market" is small. Not miniscule, but small. And many of them want an HPC for HPI++ reasons... i.e. still think of homes as "assets" rather than a home. The numbers who think that the misallocation of capital and debt into real estate harms the long term economic viability of the country as a whole and reduces overall quality of life is TINY.

Sadly this may be the case. It reminds me of one the Telegraph articles where the journalist says something on the line of "I was an angry renter for a decade. Following an eviction of my family I finally decided to buy. First I gave my wallet to the mortgage Industry and now my soul wishing for HPI"

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Ah found it .. I was an angry young renter who railed against the mortgage industry. Until I bought a house

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I am investing everything, not just the contents of my bank account, but my sense of security and the future security of my children, into a pile of bricks and a scrap of lawn. As such, those bricks become impregnated with hopes and dreams.

And while owning a house might not upend my politics, it must surely affect them. My perspective on important economic issues will no longer be wholly governed by what I think is right, but what is right for me. The questions are already nagging: What would rent control do to the value of my house? What would Brexit do to the value of my house? What does Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty mean for the value of my house?

Soon I’ll be one of those people who likes talking about loft conversions, or pulls out floor-plans in the pub, even though I know deep down that property-obsessed people are the most tedious people on earth. “Isn’t it terrible,” I’ll say, paying lip-service to expiring principles, “about home ownership being out of reach for all but those with rich families or a six-figure salary…” Then I’ll turn back to surreptitiously cheer on the figures clicking over on Zoopla.

This is the great tragedy of housing in Britain today. No other social force so powerfully pits those who have against those who don’t. We are all in it together, I’ve realized, so long as we own.

And if you're an angry renter striving to join our ranks, rest assured: if you're ever lucky enough to do so, you'll soon be in on it too.  First wallet, then soul.

 

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6 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

That doesn't make sense though unless you move to the far end of Scotland and buy an ex-council flat, how do most people realise gains from HPI. If your house goes up in price, so does the next house you want to buy, especially in London and the SE.

You are right. HPI gains would not be realised until you sell. Try explaining this to the masses who are in their own " I have something very valuable" ego bubble. Even those who bought when houses were very affordable(going with flow)  think they were some kind of smart investors and the younger generation lacks those skills/work ethics. Then there are others  who justify saying " we started from zero but we will have at least have something to hand over to our off springs so they don't have to go through we did". I am pretty sure their offsprings will not have the same chance despite higher education. Times have changed.

Edited by Fairyland
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22 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

That doesn't make sense though unless you move to the far end of Scotland and buy an ex-council flat, how do most people realise gains from HPI. If your house goes up in price, so does the next house you want to buy, especially in London and the SE.

that's why I tell homeowners that they're monkeys holding onto a banana in a hole. 

Its in their hand. They can feel it. But can never actually eat it.

But because its "theirs". They have it in their hand. They would be loath to let go and try and find a banana somewhere else. 

Even if a steamroller was coming slowly at them. They won't let go of "their" banana. 

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3 hours ago, Bsmf said:

Problem is lots of the youth want house prices to keep rising, they want to own somewhere then have a magic money making machine that earns more than they do each year.

Yes...the majority still want to see HPI and hence the policies that promote this.  Being a HPCer is a minority pursuit, most people that would benefit from a HPC don't even understand that they would benefit.

The cause of all this is the 'tyranny of the majority' - a fundamental flaw with our democracy made worse by the first passed the post system.  A flaw well known to founding fathers of democracy in the west but rarely discussed today...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority

...the cause of most of our woes, pensions injustice, ballooning national debt, HPI to name a few....

 

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1 hour ago, hayder said:

that's why I tell homeowners that they're monkeys holding onto a banana in a hole. 

Its in their hand. They can feel it. But can never actually eat it.

But because its "theirs". They have it in their hand. They would be loath to let go and try and find a banana somewhere else. 

Even if a steamroller was coming slowly at them. They won't let go of "their" banana. 

Yes and no...HPI makes homeowners relatively more wealthy than those that don't own property.  You can't deny that, even if only on paper they are in a stronger position if they own a house with equity than someone without a house.  This is all about power...the homeowner feels smug because they have become relatively more powerful if the value of their house increases even if its the same old tatty house.

Policies promoting HPI are all about the transfer of wealth and power - this is the agenda.

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14 hours ago, BuyToLeech said:

Depends what you mean by youth. The problem is that the priced out generation is now 40, and so includes exactly the people who would should be switching from labour to Tory, but aren’t, because they have essentially been priced out of the middle class. 

A point to remember when discussing FTB and BOMAD.

FTB these days are not graduate trainees but near middle aged folks often with kid(s).

BOMAD are also often not indulging young kids, but often  taking equity out of the own home as they dont want to kick the bucket with the grandkids living in a crapy new build flat with their middle aged son daughters life looking grim.

The above explains why in the areas I am looking over £450k is dead and the only "hot' market is family homes sub 450k.

Can they afford them...no but max credit and some MEW from mum and dad up to 100k gets them in.

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2 hours ago, fru-gal said:

That doesn't make sense though unless you move to the far end of Scotland and buy an ex-council flat, how do most people realise gains from HPI. If your house goes up in price, so does the next house you want to buy, especially in London and the SE.

You're talking about the people who tell everyone they have 'made' £50k on their house in the past year. Then tell the same people they cant afford to come down the pub after work for a pint.

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3 minutes ago, ccc said:

You're talking about the people who tell everyone they have 'made' £50k on their house in the past year. Then tell the same people they cant afford to come down the pub after work for a pint.

Asset rich, cash poor.

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7 hours ago, hayder said:

yes

from a young age this mentality is imbued into people... 

In reality, the number of people who want an HPC is a small minority. We have to acknowledge this.

The old / homeowners - HPI++

Young BOMAD - HPI++

Young / Old council tenants - Don't care

Young "saving for a deposit" - HPI++

Young HTB/Shared Ownership etc... - HPI++

If so many young people want HPI++ why are Labour taking more votes than the Conservatives from all age groups under 47 years old?

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It isn’t about what people think. It’s no surprise they think that HPI is good when they are continually bombarded with that message, but that doesn’t really matter. 

People who are forced to rent, have less stability and are therefore more reliant on the state. They also have little to lose from idealism. 

You can’t get them to vote conservative by persuading them HPI is good for the economy, you have to actually change their circumstances.   They have to have something they want to conserve.

I do not see any evidence that the conservatives have realised this. They also seem to think it’s about people choosing to vote for specific housing policies.  But that isn’t really the point.

Imagine facing a retirement in rented accommodation, with few savings and negligible private pension which may not keep up with rent increases.

You face the very real threat of homelessness in old age. Who would you vote for?

Edited by BuyToLeech
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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