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Itexit: Election win Euro Skeptic "Five Star" party


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46 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

"It is a predominantly Muslim country, and although French is the official language, only about half of the population can read or write it." 

Didn't see that one coming.

Not stereotyping it as corrupt and disorganised, but wonder if you can just rock up and get a French passport for a few quid?

 

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Back on to one of my favourite news stories that doesn't get enough attention.

 

The president is now installing a new prime minister (of the technical nature), because a new government is not going to be formed.  New elections will follow.

 

To me this is great new for the Five Star Movement and LaLega.  

 

There is absolutely no good news on the horizon for Italy, all they can look forward to is another summer of migrants and economic malaise.  

 

Both parties will do much better in the next election :)

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On 08/05/2018 at 09:35, spyguy said:

Belgium is just a dumb, made up tiny country.

Belgians are the most appalling drives in Europe, in my experience. About 3 weeks ago, I'd filled up with fuel in Luxembourg (as everyone who lives nearby, or is passing close-by, does) - I'd gone maybe 200 metres over the border into Belgium when I had to stop for a lost Luxembourgeois turning left - on hearing the screech-screech of ABS brakes full applied, I looked in my rear view mirror and saw an out of control Belgian van bearing down on me at huge speed. Braced myself for impact, but luckily ABS enabled him to swerve off the road past us, and into a hedge. Oddly enough, a couple of days earlier I'd had a conversation with a Swiss friend about the terrible level of driving in Belgium, and he'd told me that it was so horrific partly because the Belgians were the last country in Europe to require drivers to have driving licences - as late as the 70s, IIRC. 

Had to rescue some Belgians a couple of years ago who decided that It'd be a good idea to arrive at about 2000 metres above sea level in the Alps in February with summer tyres, at midnight. 

Shocking drivers, in my experience.

Don't get me started on the pointless language that is Flemish. I have some Belgian neighbours who insist on talking with me in broken English, even though I know that they can speak perfect French. What's with that?

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11 minutes ago, highYield said:

Belgians are the most appalling drives in Europe, in my experience. About 3 weeks ago, I'd filled up with fuel in Luxembourg (as everyone who lives nearby, or is passing close-by, does) - I'd gone maybe 200 metres over the border into Belgium when I had to stop for a lost Luxembourgeois turning left - on hearing the screech-screech of ABS brakes full applied, I looked in my rear view mirror and saw an out of control Belgian van bearing down on me at huge speed. Braced myself for impact, but luckily ABS enabled him to swerve off the road past us, and into a hedge. Oddly enough, a couple of days earlier I'd had a conversation with a Swiss friend about the terrible level of driving in Belgium, and he'd told me that it was so horrific partly because the Belgians were the last country in Europe to require drivers to have driving licences - as late as the 70s, IIRC. 

Had to rescue some Belgians a couple of years ago who decided that It'd be a good idea to arrive at about 2000 metres above sea level in the Alps in February with summer tyres, at midnight. 

Shocking drivers, in my experience.

Don't get me started on the pointless language that is Flemish. I have some Belgian neighbours who insist on talking with me in broken English, even though I know that they can speak perfect French. What's with that?

Political.

Flemish will avoid speaking French.

My BIL family flatly refuse to speak Spanish with Mrs spy. Theyll only speak catalan or English. Part is free lesson. Most is snubbing castilans.

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19 minutes ago, highYield said:

Don't get me started on the pointless language that is Flemish. I have some Belgian neighbours who insist on talking with me in broken English, even though I know that they can speak perfect French. What's with that?

It's a sh*t hole

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25 minutes ago, highYield said:

Belgians are the most appalling drives in Europe, in my experience. About 3 weeks ago, I'd filled up with fuel in Luxembourg (as everyone who lives nearby, or is passing close-by, does) - I'd gone maybe 200 metres over the border into Belgium when I had to stop for a lost Luxembourgeois turning left - on hearing the screech-screech of ABS brakes full applied, I looked in my rear view mirror and saw an out of control Belgian van bearing down on me at huge speed. Braced myself for impact, but luckily ABS enabled him to swerve off the road past us, and into a hedge. Oddly enough, a couple of days earlier I'd had a conversation with a Swiss friend about the terrible level of driving in Belgium, and he'd told me that it was so horrific partly because the Belgians were the last country in Europe to require drivers to have driving licences - as late as the 70s, IIRC. 

Had to rescue some Belgians a couple of years ago who decided that It'd be a good idea to arrive at about 2000 metres above sea level in the Alps in February with summer tyres, at midnight. 

Shocking drivers, in my experience.

Don't get me started on the pointless language that is Flemish. I have some Belgian neighbours who insist on talking with me in broken English, even though I know that they can speak perfect French. What's with that?

My father worked for big multinational company, visited literally the entire United Nations, always hired a car and drove. He once earnestly told me that the only two countries in earth were he was scared were Portugal and Belgium.

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26 minutes ago, highYield said:

Don't get me started on the pointless language that is Flemish. I have some Belgian neighbours who insist on talking with me in broken English, even though I know that they can speak perfect French. What's with that?

 

Flemish is just Dutch

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1 hour ago, highYield said:

Belgians are the most appalling drives in Europe, in my experience.

There's a webcam here for Bruges market square. It's heart in mouth stuff at busy times with buses, cars, lorries, bikes, horse and cart crossing between pedestrians. Though I've just noticed they have added some bollards which might help the flow. Just around the corner to the left is the clock tower from the film In Bruges, which might be of interest to a certain forumite.

 

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18 hours ago, reddog said:

Back on to one of my favourite news stories that doesn't get enough attention.

 

The president is now installing a new prime minister (of the technical nature), because a new government is not going to be formed.  New elections will follow.

 

To me this is great new for the Five Star Movement and LaLega.  

 

There is absolutely no good news on the horizon for Italy, all they can look forward to is another summer of migrants and economic malaise.  

 

Both parties will do much better in the next election :)

Absolutely. If Mattarella had accepted the current M5S/Lega ticket, they would not have the majority necessary to alter the Italian constitution which is necessary to hold any sort of referendum on Euro or EU exit (despite neither of these being part of their proposed policy platform to Mattarella).

Now, projections show that both M5S and Lega will gain votes and obtain bonus seats in an early election raising their majority from 54% to 69%. Ironically this is above the threshold needed to alter the constitution. 

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/18_maggio_28/lega-5-stelle-insieme-vincerebbero-90-per-cento-collegi-uninominali-81192fd4-62b0-11e8-bb5f-63b58f0e7bef.shtml

link is in Italian but map shows how they would sweep the country

I think Mattarella has been played by Salvini, Salvini could have proposed his deputy for example to be the Finance minister. He knew he would reject Savona forcing another election which will return M5S and Lega with an increased majority.

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22 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

I think Mattarella has been played by Salvini, Salvini could have proposed his deputy for example to be the Finance minister. He knew he would reject Savona forcing another election which will return M5S and Lega with an increased majority. 

The League/M5S have no doubt studied what happened to Greece and are doing all the right things to make sure that the same outcome doesn't happen to them.  Mattarella has played this very poorly as you suggest, he has traded 3 months more Euro membership for a guarantee of making the coalition stronger and Italy's exit from the Euro much more likely.

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22 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

The League/M5S have no doubt studied what happened to Greece and are doing all the right things to make sure that the same outcome doesn't happen to them.  Mattarella has played this very poorly as you suggest, he has traded 3 months more Euro membership for a guarantee of making the coalition stronger and Italy's exit from the Euro much more likely.

Indeed, whatever hope Mattarella had for stabilising the markets by appointing a caretaker government and reversing the BTP/bund yield spread rise since the M5S/Lega first proposed their contract has been blown out of the water today.

The markets are rightly discounting already what you outlined above, the probability of euro exit has only been increased by Mattarella's action.

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15 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Indeed, whatever hope Mattarella had for stabilising the markets by appointing a caretaker government and reversing the BTP/bund yield spread rise since the M5S/Lega first proposed their contract has been blown out of the water today.

The markets are rightly discounting already what you outlined above, the probability of euro exit has only been increased by Mattarella's action.

Just out of interest, what else could he have done ?

As far as I can see the coalition parties did not propose a pro exit manifesto, then when they get into power they want to appoint pro exit ministers. What would be the result of this ? A long drawn out spat with the EZ/EU that would be damaging to the country and ultimately not reconcilable if the governing parties cannot change the constitution. The president has the power to veto appointments, I guess he does this if he feels an appointment might be seriously damaging to the countries interests.

I think there will be no lack of clarity in the new elections. The coalition parties will have to spell out exactly where they stand. If the public want what they propose then I doubt they will be stopped a second time. Meanwhile in the intervening year (?) the EU/EZ has a chance to come up with some sort of reasonable compromise to help the Italians out - otherwise exit really is on the cards.

Preisdent has asked everyone, electorate, politicians both in Italy and the EZ to think again. Takes some guts probably to do this as well. Probably what he was elected for and why he was given the power. Now the people have to make the choice. If exit happens then to me the choice is so important everyone (electorate and politicians) have to be clear what they are about.

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1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Just out of interest, what else could he have done ?

As far as I can see the coalition parties did not propose a pro exit manifesto, then when they get into power they want to appoint pro exit ministers. What would be the result of this ? A long drawn out spat with the EZ/EU that would be damaging to the country and ultimately not reconcilable if the governing parties cannot change the constitution. The president has the power to veto appointments, I guess he does this if he feels an appointment might be seriously damaging to the countries interests.

I think there will be no lack of clarity in the new elections. The coalition parties will have to spell out exactly where they stand. If the public want what they propose then I doubt they will be stopped a second time. Meanwhile in the intervening year (?) the EU/EZ has a chance to come up with some sort of reasonable compromise to help the Italians out - otherwise exit really is on the cards.

Preisdent has asked everyone, electorate, politicians both in Italy and the EZ to think again. Takes some guts probably to do this as well. Probably what he was elected for and why he was given the power. Now the people have to make the choice. If exit happens then to me the choice is so important everyone (electorate and politicians) have to be clear what they are about.

He could have called their bluff by approving Savona knowing they couldn't alter the constitution whatever Savona proposed (even though there was no intention to propose euro exit). Then the coalition could have made made their case to the EU on relaxing fiscal compact rules etc via the normal govt to govt channels. Now he's made the case for Salvini that Italy is ultimately ruled in the interests of the EU and will give him the ammunition to actually do something about it by having the necessary majority to change the constitution together with di Maio at the next election. So it will prove to be quite counter-productive.

While I agree with your second and third paragraphs, it would be a mistake to focus solely on the Euro issue which was not the main issue for voters. For M5S voters it was citizens income and corruption. For Lega it was flat tax and pension reforms. For both there was also immigration. The main issue with the EU was the restrictive EU fiscal compact which would hinder their domestic spending agenda. There are large domestic issues which Italians want to be dealt with by governments they elected, not blocked by establishment technocrats since the ouster of Berlusconi.

Italians are fed up and it seems to me past the point of no return if the projections turn out to be correct.

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17 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

He could have called their bluff by approving Savona knowing they couldn't alter the constitution whatever Savona proposed (even though there was no intention to propose euro exit). Then the coalition could have made made their case to the EU on relaxing fiscal compact rules etc via the normal govt to govt channels. Now he's made the case for Salvini that Italy is ultimately ruled in the interests of the EU and will give him the ammunition to actually do something about it by having the necessary majority to change the constitution together with di Maio at the next election. So it will prove to be quite counter-productive.

While I agree with your second and third paragraphs, it would be a mistake to focus solely on the Euro issue which was not the main issue for voters. For M5S voters it was citizens income and corruption. For Lega it was flat tax and pension reforms. For both there was also immigration. The main issue with the EU was the restrictive EU fiscal compact which would hinder their domestic spending agenda. There are large domestic issues which Italians want to be dealt with by governments they elected, not blocked by establishment technocrats since the ouster of Berlusconi.

Italians are fed up and it seems to me past the point of no return if the projections turn out to be correct.

Makes sense.

Not sure whether it would just be easier to ignore the fiscal compact like other people do rather than fight with the EU about it and then see what happens.

I don't see that Italy has a future at the moment in the EZ with the current level of German inflexibility, EU is another issue. It's simply a question of how much punishment they want to take before they come to that conclusion (ditto PGS).

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3 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

How does importing millions of low/no wage immigrants from the Middle East/Africa help the EU project though? 

Cheap labour for unskilled work plus breaks down the national identity of the countries.  Much easier to push around a bunch of disparate people with different interests, as opposed to a unified block of people with a strong sense of shared identity, history and shared interests.

The 'new liberals' seem obsessed with destroying the coherence of existing structures in Western societies - families, local communities, religious community, national identity.   At the same time bring in a load of people with markedly different identity and values and rebuild the whole mess to your liking with no-one organised enough to stand up to you.

Remember, you're "making the World a better place" so it's all in a good cause.

 

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7 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

But how does this benefit the "new liberals" in the long run? If they replace one group of people with another then they will simply have a different (larger and more homogenous) group to try and control (who more or less only take orders from their god, not some EU bureaucrat)? Also, if they are trying to impose liberal ideas on the peoples of Europe such as liberalisation of sexuality/gender identity/abortion rights etc, then importing a group that tends to be ideologically conservative in relation to sexuality/gender rights/abortion is in direct contrast to these liberalisations. Seems really odd and counter-intuitive.

They think it's going to result in us all living happily ever after in some wonderful utopia. 

They are wrong.

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Italian politics in nutshell: How country ended up with ex-IMF chief it never voted for as its PM

Italy’s March elections were followed by months of negotiations, which ended with the president’s move to block the will of people and pick an ex-IMF director as the new interim PM. Let’s recap how it happened.

https://www.rt.com/news/428119-italy-politics-in-nutshell/

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8 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

But how does this benefit the "new liberals" in the long run? If they replace one group of people with another then they will simply have a different (larger and more homogenous) group to try and control (who more or less only take orders from their god, not some EU bureaucrat)? Also, if they are trying to impose liberal ideas on the peoples of Europe such as liberalisation of sexuality/gender identity/abortion rights etc, then importing a group that tends to be ideologically conservative in relation to sexuality/gender rights/abortion is in direct contrast to these liberalisations. Seems really odd and counter-intuitive.

If you want to remake society to your liking, very difficult to deal with entrenched structures and traditions.  Destroy the sense of community and shared values underpinning the existing order and bring lots of different new people in, all with different interests and values.

Pushing around the resulting mess of fragmented people who are as likely to bicker with each other as they are to fight against your efforts to boss them around is far easier than fighting a unified society who have common goals and interests.  Standard playbook for empire building.

As for 'liberal ideals', no such thing with these neoliberals.  Just a means to an end - which is gaining power.

 

 

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Italians Furious After EU's Oettinger Says "Markets Will Teach Them" Not To Vote For Populists

And the reason why Italians are seething this morning with growing rage aimed squarely at Europe's unelected institutions, is because European Budget Commissioner, German Guenther Oettinger, said that "the negative development of the markets will lead Italians not to vote much longer for the populists" according to an interview set to be published in Deutsche Welle later in the day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-29/italians-outraged-after-eus-oettinger-says-markets-will-teach-them-not-vote

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13 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

But how does this benefit the "new liberals" in the long run? If they replace one group of people with another then they will simply have a different (larger and more homogenous) group to try and control (who more or less only take orders from their god, not some EU bureaucrat)? Also, if they are trying to impose liberal ideas on the peoples of Europe such as liberalisation of sexuality/gender identity/abortion rights etc, then importing a group that tends to be ideologically conservative in relation to sexuality/gender rights/abortion is in direct contrast to these liberalisations. Seems really odd and counter-intuitive.

Depends whether you view neo liberalism as belief in a set of values, or whether the set of values just provide cover/justification for neo liberals performing personal enrichment activities.

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6 hours ago, fru-gal said:

But how does this benefit the "new liberals" in the long run? If they replace one group of people with another then they will simply have a different (larger and more homogenous) group to try and control (who more or less only take orders from their god, not some EU bureaucrat)? Also, if they are trying to impose liberal ideas on the peoples of Europe such as liberalisation of sexuality/gender identity/abortion rights etc, then importing a group that tends to be ideologically conservative in relation to sexuality/gender rights/abortion is in direct contrast to these liberalisations. Seems really odd and counter-intuitive.

Seems to me you may have hit upon the 'Hegelian Dialectic' in all of this.

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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