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AdamoMucci

DOW falls 1100 points

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When you know Chinese don't trust their own currency you wonder why a non Chinese would think about holding any of it if he has no economic tie to it

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They seem to have rebounded quickly from the effects of the Coronavirus, due to this their currency might be expected to do better in the next few months by comparison with those countries still facing the worst of this pandemic.

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Investors park their money where the rule of law can be used. 

Also what rebound? They are still suffering from the coronavirus, the country is not operating fully at the moment, and the western economies are not ordering as many things as they used to. Also they allow very limited amount of currency to be outside of their borders. but you do you

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I concede I'm clutching at straws here, I just want to avoid a situation were my hard earned money maintains it's nominal value but has reduced buying power due to inflation causes price rises (as QE and this 80% wage guarantee money floods the system).

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1 hour ago, Freki said:

Investors park their money where the rule of law can be used. 

Also what rebound? They are still suffering from the coronavirus, the country is not operating fully at the moment, and the western economies are not ordering as many things as they used to. Also they allow very limited amount of currency to be outside of their borders. but you do you

And there is bound to be serious re-structuring of the supply chain "just in time" system after this shock, I don`t think China is in a good place at all.

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10 minutes ago, astrid said:

I concede I'm clutching at straws here, I just want to avoid a situation were my hard earned money maintains it's nominal value but has reduced buying power due to inflation causes price rises (as QE and this 80% wage guarantee money floods the system).

I think the 80% thing will have so many clauses attached that it will amount to less impact than you think, they might bail a few larger companies and do grants/loans to a few more smaller enterprises that employ lots of people but I doubt they will be keeping sandwich shops and nail-bars afloat. They have been QE`ing like f*uck for over a decade and we are barely treading water (before this shock) Much of the "Do anything it takes" talk is about keeping people believing in the system rather than the PTB actually believing that they can generate inflation IMO.

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If you look at today's UK COVID deaths, I think we are starting to see a reversal of the Daily increase. Sterling is back up too. 

The interesting thing will be with the US.  I think Trump screwed things up, though at State level they were more organised.

The US death count will be higher. They have more people with chronic disease and obesity. Additionally the new printy printy regime will weaken the Dollar, though that will flatter the Dow. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

If you look at today's UK COVID deaths, I think we are starting to see a reversal of the Daily increase. 

Mate, you are too smart to write that... One day worth of data does not make a trend.

Edited by Freki

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51 minutes ago, Freki said:

Mate, you are too smart to write that... One day worth of data does not make a trend.

I know you can't write it on one days data and deaths are the only thing we know for sure. But I do think the Oxford model has some validity to it, normally I'd expect a big jump day by day. I am not pretending social distancing has had any effect yet. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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21 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I know you can't write it on one days data and deaths are the only thing we know for sure. But I do think the Oxford model has some validity to it, normally I'd expect a big jump day by day. I am not pretending social distancing has had any effect yet. 

So with today's numbers how are you feeling?

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The United States becomes the most-infected country in the world. US jobless claims at record high. Dow up 20%.

Seems legit.

1020511169__111437123_usjoblessclaim-nc1.thumb.png.606eaf412792e15cabbf653c5dc8cdf1.png

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15 minutes ago, Biggus said:

The United States becomes the most-infected country in the world. US jobless claims at record high. Dow up 20%.

Seems legit.

Remember that if you think the economy is going to tank 30% but stimulus measures will create 50% worth of inflation that could still be a valid outcome....the DOW is a nominal index, not real.

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Does anyone know when the Dow Jones Futures open or any other stock exchange and the earliest I could track them?

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10 minutes ago, what said:

I thought that what it was on Friday after close.

Bare in mind the futures try to predict. So if the futures closed at 21,000 and the Dow subsequently closed at 20,500 the futures default when they reopen is down 500 plus or minus the predicted change on the Dow for when it opens. 

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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