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Investors park their money where the rule of law can be used. 

Also what rebound? They are still suffering from the coronavirus, the country is not operating fully at the moment, and the western economies are not ordering as many things as they used to. Also they allow very limited amount of currency to be outside of their borders. but you do you

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I concede I'm clutching at straws here, I just want to avoid a situation were my hard earned money maintains it's nominal value but has reduced buying power due to inflation causes price rises (as QE and this 80% wage guarantee money floods the system).

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1 hour ago, Freki said:

Investors park their money where the rule of law can be used. 

Also what rebound? They are still suffering from the coronavirus, the country is not operating fully at the moment, and the western economies are not ordering as many things as they used to. Also they allow very limited amount of currency to be outside of their borders. but you do you

And there is bound to be serious re-structuring of the supply chain "just in time" system after this shock, I don`t think China is in a good place at all.

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10 minutes ago, astrid said:

I concede I'm clutching at straws here, I just want to avoid a situation were my hard earned money maintains it's nominal value but has reduced buying power due to inflation causes price rises (as QE and this 80% wage guarantee money floods the system).

I think the 80% thing will have so many clauses attached that it will amount to less impact than you think, they might bail a few larger companies and do grants/loans to a few more smaller enterprises that employ lots of people but I doubt they will be keeping sandwich shops and nail-bars afloat. They have been QE`ing like f*uck for over a decade and we are barely treading water (before this shock) Much of the "Do anything it takes" talk is about keeping people believing in the system rather than the PTB actually believing that they can generate inflation IMO.

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If you look at today's UK COVID deaths, I think we are starting to see a reversal of the Daily increase. Sterling is back up too. 

The interesting thing will be with the US.  I think Trump screwed things up, though at State level they were more organised.

The US death count will be higher. They have more people with chronic disease and obesity. Additionally the new printy printy regime will weaken the Dollar, though that will flatter the Dow. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

If you look at today's UK COVID deaths, I think we are starting to see a reversal of the Daily increase. 

Mate, you are too smart to write that... One day worth of data does not make a trend.

Edited by Freki
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51 minutes ago, Freki said:

Mate, you are too smart to write that... One day worth of data does not make a trend.

I know you can't write it on one days data and deaths are the only thing we know for sure. But I do think the Oxford model has some validity to it, normally I'd expect a big jump day by day. I am not pretending social distancing has had any effect yet. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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21 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I know you can't write it on one days data and deaths are the only thing we know for sure. But I do think the Oxford model has some validity to it, normally I'd expect a big jump day by day. I am not pretending social distancing has had any effect yet. 

So with today's numbers how are you feeling?

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15 minutes ago, Biggus said:

The United States becomes the most-infected country in the world. US jobless claims at record high. Dow up 20%.

Seems legit.

Remember that if you think the economy is going to tank 30% but stimulus measures will create 50% worth of inflation that could still be a valid outcome....the DOW is a nominal index, not real.

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1 minute ago, what said:

Does anyone know when the Dow Jones Futures open or any other stock exchange and the earliest I could track them?

Usually around now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/YM=F?p=YM=F&.tsrc=fin-srch

Market is open and down 900

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10 minutes ago, what said:

I thought that what it was on Friday after close.

Bare in mind the futures try to predict. So if the futures closed at 21,000 and the Dow subsequently closed at 20,500 the futures default when they reopen is down 500 plus or minus the predicted change on the Dow for when it opens. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Markets are up today, presumably on the possibility Covid-19 is peaking. The question is, have the markets already bottomed out? Some were saying hold tight, they will fall further, but others feel the lowest lows have already been seen. 

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5 minutes ago, Orb said:

Markets are up today, presumably on the possibility Covid-19 is peaking. The question is, have the markets already bottomed out? Some were saying hold tight, they will fall further, but others feel the lowest lows have already been seen. 

Calling the bottom is impossible.  I just ask myself - what is my time horizon for investing?  And do I think I will get a retun in that time horizon?  The fact the price might have been slighly better yesterday, or might be slighly better tomorrow, shouldn't influence that if i'm trying to invest for 5, 10 or 20 years.

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13 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Calling the bottom is impossible.  I just ask myself - what is my time horizon for investing?  And do I think I will get a retun in that time horizon?  The fact the price might have been slighly better yesterday, or might be slighly better tomorrow, shouldn't influence that if i'm trying to invest for 5, 10 or 20 years.

True only the gamberlers speculate on the short-term.?

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Calling the bottom is impossible.  I just ask myself - what is my time horizon for investing?  And do I think I will get a retun in that time horizon?  The fact the price might have been slighly better yesterday, or might be slighly better tomorrow, shouldn't influence that if i'm trying to invest for 5, 10 or 20 years.

I agree with you AND every attempt I ever make to buy shares I always get things wrong. However, could hanging on for a few weeks shave half of the potential gains to be seen over the next 5 years? 

As it happens I am holding fire until some of the awful numbers start coming through. Particularly in the US. 

There will be a rally after the peak and later once a vaccine starts being distributed.....I may sell some shares in these booms, because I believe there will be some reckoning and analysis after that.  Reality is I will sit and watch...never brave enough to act  

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40 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

I agree with you AND every attempt I ever make to buy shares I always get things wrong. However, could hanging on for a few weeks shave half of the potential gains to be seen over the next 5 years? 

As it happens I am holding fire until some of the awful numbers start coming through. Particularly in the US. 

There will be a rally after the peak and later once a vaccine starts being distributed.....I may sell some shares in these booms, because I believe there will be some reckoning and analysis after that.  Reality is I will sit and watch...never brave enough to act  

Perhaps @wish I could afford one's mechanical rebalancing investing might work for you?

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3 hours ago, Orb said:

Markets are up today, presumably on the possibility Covid-19 is peaking. The question is, have the markets already bottomed out? Some were saying hold tight, they will fall further, but others feel the lowest lows have already been seen. 

I'm happy. By luck my pension trades (about 2/3 of the total) loaded up when the Dow was at about 18,000. Not totally deliberate timing, just lucky. I requested the rest back today, no idea when they'll actually go through - these ones are with Aviva and I was told upto 30 days, the others took less than a week. 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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On 25/03/2020 at 16:13, dances with sheeple said:

I think the 80% thing will have so many clauses attached that it will amount to less impact than you think, they might bail a few larger companies and do grants/loans to a few more smaller enterprises that employ lots of people but I doubt they will be keeping sandwich shops and nail-bars afloat. They have been QE`ing like f*uck for over a decade and we are barely treading water (before this shock) Much of the "Do anything it takes" talk is about keeping people believing in the system rather than the PTB actually believing that they can generate inflation IMO.

I think you are spot on with the 80% - they will also come down hard on anyone who lets an employee work whilst on furlough hence paid as income to your business - if they find a single employee has worked they will then convert to money you owe HMRC so becomes effectively positive on the govs balance sheet 

They will hang a few villagers to prove the point as well - then go after the rest for the money back - they use a nice term for that a clear up like they have done with EBT’s 

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10 hours ago, Will! said:

Perhaps @wish I could afford one's mechanical rebalancing investing might work for you?

His strategy has worked for me in that I tried to balance everything according to his principles and am down a lot less than the overall markets even that dog 3M is now improving ! Boeing not so much ?

Edited by GregBowman
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