Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
AdamoMucci

DOW falls 1100 points

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Markets can remain insane for a longtime, but the Dow is looking extremely creaky. I still think things will return to type and there will be something massive on the downside, probably in October. 

 

 

In the meantime, my cash is in the market and still buying every month, earning dividends and getting whatever price it happens to be each month. If it crashes, great, cheaper buys for a few years. If it doesn't, glad I didn't sit out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Investors should “back up the truck and buy” into the pullback created by a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve and new China tariffs from the Trump administration,  Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a client note on Friday.

“We see falling 10-yr and weakening USD and higher odds of a September cut as VERY BULLISH—hence, we strongly urge investors to take advantage of this weakness,” Lee said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Investors should “back up the truck and buy” into the pullback created by a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve and new China tariffs from the Trump administration,  Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a client note on Friday.

“We see falling 10-yr and weakening USD and higher odds of a September cut as VERY BULLISH—hence, we strongly urge investors to take advantage of this weakness,” Lee said.

So the only parameter to be considered...is borrowing rates.

Things like operating profit obviously of no interest - that's 20th century stuff!

It's all about mass buying and the momentum it generates - business fundamentals are apparently of no concern.

No wonder corporate boardrooms are loading up on cheap debt, buying their own stock and reaping the rewards of the effect on their stock option packages...beats working for a living.

What a strange world the financial speculators and their algos have delivered us -  but what happens when the party stops? I guess the price of gold and bitcoin is telling us that other people are asking themselves the same question, and are quietly preparing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Investors should “back up the truck and buy” into the pullback created by a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve and new China tariffs from the Trump administration,  Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a client note on Friday.

“We see falling 10-yr and weakening USD and higher odds of a September cut as VERY BULLISH—hence, we strongly urge investors to take advantage of this weakness,” Lee said.

So he's encouraging Investors to become Traders...

Mmmm.  No thanks.  I'll stay with my buy, hold rebalance mechanical investment strategy.  It's working out ok so far...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, zilly said:

...

What a strange world the financial speculators and their algos have delivered us -  but what happens when the party stops? I guess the price of gold and bitcoin is telling us that other people are asking themselves the same question, and are quietly preparing.

Measured in the toilet paper that is GBP gold is up around 18% year to date.  That compares with my whole portfolio which is up about 11% when measured in the same toilet paper.

I have about 5% of my portfolio in gold as hopefully it has a poor correlation with my other investments going forwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/08/2019 at 07:21, dugsbody said:

In the meantime, my cash is in the market and still buying every month, earning dividends and getting whatever price it happens to be each month. If it crashes, great, cheaper buys for a few years. If it doesn't, glad I didn't sit out.

Interesting that you take is axiomatic - an absolute certainty - that even if it does crash, it would recover to where it is.

Why? Just because 'it always has'..? What would drive the recovery - people taking on even more debt than they already have..?

Western economies have made the same mistakes in following the same path of the Japanese - their stock market has never recovered from its crash nearly 30 years ago.

Food for thought, maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, zilly said:

Interesting that you take is axiomatic - an absolute certainty - that even if it does crash, it would recover to where it is.

Why? Just because 'it always has'..? What would drive the recovery - people taking on even more debt than they already have..?

Western economies have made the same mistakes in following the same path of the Japanese - their stock market has never recovered from its crash nearly 30 years ago.

Food for thought, maybe.

Possibly, but what is my alternative?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, zilly said:

Western economies have made the same mistakes in following the same path of the Japanese - their stock market has never recovered from its crash nearly 30 years ago.

Yes it did recover. It only looks like it didn't recover to people who are unaware of dividends. 

 

You can do quick calculations here, though data only goes up to April this year:

https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calculator-dividend-reinvestment/

An investment made at the peak in December 1989 was still 16% down in April 2019. But an investment made in December 1990 is 33% up, 1991 is 41%, 1992 is 80% up. These are appallingly low returns, but the point is that equities don't lose money in the long run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Yes it did recover. It only looks like it didn't recover to people who are unaware of dividends. 

 

You can do quick calculations here, though data only goes up to April this year:

https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calculator-dividend-reinvestment/

An investment made at the peak in December 1989 was still 16% down in April 2019. But an investment made in December 1990 is 33% up, 1991 is 41%, 1992 is 80% up. These are appallingly low returns, but the point is that equities don't lose money in the long run.

Well,,no, it didn't recover because the Nikkei index is still lower than it was in 1989 - ergo..it didn't recover.

Dividend payments do not constitute a recovery in stock price, which is what I'm talking about - not ROI.

Nikkei November 1988: 36000

Nikkei August 2019:  21000.

Alles klar..?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Start a business/create different streams of income from your own output?

Can you give me your estimated odds on the success of a small business vs investing in the stock market? How many small businesses fail? What is my probability adjusted ROI?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, zilly said:

Well,,no, it didn't recover because the Nikkei index is still lower than it was in 1989 - ergo..it didn't recover.

Dividend payments do not constitute a recovery in stock price, which is what I'm talking about - not ROI.

Nikkei November 1988: 36000

Nikkei August 2019:  21000.

Alles klar..?

 

How many people invested all their money at the very peak? I'm not doing that, I'm buying regularly. If the price drops, I continue to buy and get an average price over time. I've proved to myself several times objectively that I'm rubbish at timing the market, unlike most people on this sub. So I concede that failure and become a regular investor with a rebalancing portfolio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

Measured in the toilet paper that is GBP gold is up around 18% year to date.  That compares with my whole portfolio which is up about 11% when measured in the same toilet paper.

I have about 5% of my portfolio in gold as hopefully it has a poor correlation with my other investments going forwards.

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Investors should “back up the truck and buy” into the pullback created by a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve and new China tariffs from the Trump administration,  Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a client note on Friday.

“We see falling 10-yr and weakening USD and higher odds of a September cut as VERY BULLISH—hence, we strongly urge investors to take advantage of this weakness,” Lee said.

Classic trap laying. 

Get retail investors to jump onboard, before the trapdoor opens.

US Profits are unsustainable and the economy is a debt bomb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 02/08/2019 at 11:01, zilly said:

Well,,no, it didn't recover because the Nikkei index is still lower than it was in 1989 - ergo..it didn't recover.

Dividend payments do not constitute a recovery in stock price, which is what I'm talking about - not ROI.

The return on your investment (the combination of capital growth and income, after taxes and costs (fees, commission, research etc.) is what matters when you make your investment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Can you give me your estimated odds on the success of a small business vs investing in the stock market? How many small businesses fail? What is my probability adjusted ROI?

It`s not about estimating odds, it is about doing say three things instead if one or two that bring income, most people do JOB, so why not do JOB/STOCK MARKET/SOMETHING ELSE THAT BRINGS INCOME (you have to figure out what you can do that fills this spot) So if you lose your job and the stock market crashes you can still attract income from number three until 1) and 2) come back, think of it as diversifying income streams as opposed to diversifying inside one income stream (stock market)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dances with sheeple said:

It`s not about estimating odds, it is about doing say three things instead if one or two that bring income, most people do JOB, so why not do JOB/STOCK MARKET/SOMETHING ELSE THAT BRINGS INCOME (you have to figure out what you can do that fills this spot) So if you lose your job and the stock market crashes you can still attract income from number three until 1) and 2) come back, think of it as diversifying income streams as opposed to diversifying inside one income stream (stock market)

That would be nice, but I already have a job that takes up a lot of my hours. In return for working hard (and being experienced and pretty good at it) I get paid quite a lot. I choose to let my money earn passive income in the stock market, but if I could find a side hustle that didn't take up much time and earned a decent return, I'd do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

That would be nice, but I already have a job that takes up a lot of my hours. In return for working hard (and being experienced and pretty good at it) I get paid quite a lot. I choose to let my money earn passive income in the stock market, but if I could find a side hustle that didn't take up much time and earned a decent return, I'd do it.

Probably not going to happen then, It might need some focus and commitment, best to concentrate on having multiple (2 or 3?) years salary somewhere safe other than the stock market IMO, government bonds, high interest account, premium bonds and cash in a safe if you are really paranoid, then if the stock market AND job go down you have two or three years of paying yourself a salary to build that third income stream, look for a job and buy some trackers. IMO stock market investing should come AFTER knowing you are safe for a while if the worst happens (maybe you are already in this position, I don`t know)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Time to bounce the thread up again:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/05/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

Looks like China's currency manipulation is really getting to the US. I expect we'll see some further falls I. The markets and even competitive Devaluation by the Dollar. Definitely a bad time to hold US assets. Apple is well down as iPhone Sales will be dented and Bezos has offloaded some Amazon stock. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Time to bounce the thread up again:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/05/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

Looks like China's currency manipulation is really getting to the US. I expect we'll see some further falls I. The markets and even competitive Devaluation by the Dollar. Definitely a bad time to hold US assets. Apple is well down as iPhone Sales will be dented and Bezos has offloaded some Amazon stock. 

Looks like 'Sell in May' was the correct call after all. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 06/08/2019 at 10:15, zugzwang said:

Looks like 'Sell in May' was the correct call after all. ;)

Yes, and Dow nicely in the red again today: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJI?p=^DJI

Down 400 points as on 9.45am EST

And now.... Over 500 down, looks like a repeat of Monday. I want it down 30%, a rebound in GBP and then I'll buy 

Right now I am happy in cash, bonds and gold. The bonds will need to go once IRs start to rise rather than fall, and I'll switch out eGold (not my physical) if I see any Sterling strength (and similar for Crypto). 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎06‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 09:15, zugzwang said:

Looks like 'Sell in May' was the correct call after all. ;)

It's back to the level it was in May, so one could equally argue that "Buy in May" was the correct call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

It's back to the level it was in May, so one could equally argue that "Buy in May" was the correct call.

I'm just trading hunches and guesses like everybody else. Occasionally they pay off.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

It's back to the level it was in May, so one could equally argue that "Buy in May" was the correct call.

You are to intelligent for us

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.