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House Price Crash Forum

Nationwide Jan 2018


rantnrave
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12 minutes ago, dougless said:

The prices are being dragged up by the 'Northern Powerhouse'.  The slide downwards hasn't got going there yet.

They still say prices are going up around here, Dorset.

I know someone in Hounslow who had a flat in their block sell very quickly at a kite price last month.

The spread seems glacial seeing as K&C was crashing two years ago!

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57 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Up 0.6%, and YoY back over 3%.

Even Nationwide are at a loss to explain why prices aren't falling...

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2018/Jan_2018.pdf

I was talking to a resi surveyor the other day and he said that NW were doing a lot of the heavy pulling in terms of taking the riskier borrowrs off Main St lenders.............given the NW index is based on their mortgage approvals ....

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39 minutes ago, Bsmf said:

They still say prices are going up around here, Dorset.

I'm in Dorset too - Bournemouth & Poole are totally nuts, Biurnemouth up 11.7% last year according to the echo.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15803943.House_prices_rise_faster_in_Bournemouth_than_anywhere_in_the_UK__except_Cheltenham_/

 

I've given up looking, just saving and waiting for my opportunity to buy at a more sensible price.  I'll probably be waiting years.

 

 

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Nationwide apply some pretty heavy seasonal adjustment to their month on month changes. Looking at 2016 and 2017, the average prices have increased the most from March to July. We'll have to wait and see whether the same trend happens this year. I don't think any real month on month negative changes will be seen till then if something is on, as their model will slightly fall apart due to the assumptions no longer being accurate. At the moment, the 6 month on month change when not seasonally adjusting is a mere 0.04%. 

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House price indices provided each month by Halifax and the Nationwide have been branded as “misguiding” and “out of date” and “antiquated” in an outspoken attack by rival analysts.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/1/laggard-halifax-and-nationwide-price-indices-slammed-as-out-of-date-by-rival?source=newsticker

 

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Beeb's reporting (from a parallel universe):

Quote

House price growth in surprise pick-up, says Nationwide

Annual house price growth picked up to 3.2% in January, according to the Nationwide building society.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42885645

:

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Just now, Nabby81 said:

Not what I am seeing in Luton a look on rightmove shows some pretty hefty drops 200k redunced to 170k .I posted in another thread how a new development has slashed 25k off the price within weeks of the first listing ..so god knows where Nationwide are getting its figures from

Agreed, our budget is the same as when we started looking 18 months ago (could borrow more but won't, and have doubled the deposit so far) but we're now looking at 3 bed houses as standard whereas at first it was only 2 beds in range. Drops are commonplace of between 10 - 25k before a buyer bites 

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13 hours ago, Just_Do_It said:

I'm in Dorset too - Bournemouth & Poole are totally nuts, Biurnemouth up 11.7% last year according to the echo.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15803943.House_prices_rise_faster_in_Bournemouth_than_anywhere_in_the_UK__except_Cheltenham_/

 

I've given up looking, just saving and waiting for my opportunity to buy at a more sensible price.  I'll probably be waiting years.

 

 

Bournemouth just seems nuts, I do wonder with the demographics and boomer debt if it could start to fall in a couple of years anyway with downsizing and io matureity then in ten years when the boomers start to die off or move into carehomes a big crash.

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4 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

I think it's down to virtually no supply, don't think many can afford to move. Indeed the "trickle" is mentioned on the report. A very sick Market.

Unfortunately I know 3 people that have just bought BTL properties and 1 person that’s just moved into a camper van as they can’t afford the rent anymore.. 

sick world.. greed all the way.. 

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13 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

I think it's down to virtually no supply, don't think many can afford to move. Indeed the "trickle" is mentioned on the report. A very sick Market.

I read it as a disaster for a building society - they’ll likely have to cut prices to get business leaving more pressure on their net interest margin and low mortgage volumes. I don’t know how rapidly Nationwide is cost cutting eg.  branch closures. 

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